October 1995? I do hope so to be more drier and staying warmer.  Hope the very warm spell on 29th is true and not fake one which should get 27-28C here with hopefully clear sunny skies.

GFS Op 00z - However as so often recently, the deep LP comes to nothing. It fills quickly as it brushes NW Scotland and instead has the effect of pumping up a warm HP over Britain 1030mb E Anglia Sat 3rd. Although weak troughs move eastwards Sun 4th and Tue 6th, pressure remains fairly high until Sat 10th when a cold LP occupies both the Norwegian Sea and North Sea 980mb with N/NW-ly gales (Ireland escapes the worst). A small e-hurricane popsup near Newfoundland at this time.

ECM - something like GFS but the HP Sat 3rd is positioned further east allowing the trough on Sunday to be wider and deeper - but not a lot.

AIFS - London , maxima about 18C early rising to 23C Fri 9th with a couple of extra warm days thrown in (today and Tue 29th); rain Mon 28th and Wed 30th. Edinburgh, maxima from 15C now to 20C by Fri 9th, just the one extra warm day 19C on Wed 30th (preceded by a couple of rather cold nights at 7C). Rain every couple of days to Sat 3rd, then mostly dry. More or less agrees with GFS at first but no sign of the cold weather forecast by GFS in FI.

GEFS - Good ens agreement on a temporary drop in temp to norm before a mini warm-wave (+7C) around Wed 30th. Still quite good agreement through the next week as temps drop back to norm Fri 2nd and then a little above. From Sat 10th Op is a dramatically cold outlier at 10C below norm (compare GFS charts above). Rain likely in small amounts (in SE, more in SW and NE) from Mon 28th for most of that week, not much thereafter. 

The long-term forecast for a wet and windy autumn is making a start, but stuttering to do so and not yet consistent or convincing

I’ve only looked at the operational, but that still shows it heading way west and north of the uk. As does ECM and UKMO

Yes only watching it because flying from Dublin Tuesday so hoping no issues

GFS Op 0z - track of storm similar to FAX but only 965mb so less effect on Britain; it fills over Iceland and allows HP to resume 1030mb covering all the country by Sun 4th. This HP only slowly moves to the NE and another, much weaker, LP 990mb follows the same track as its predecessor up the west coast from Sun 11th. High pressure over W Russia at this time reaching 1040mb. [GFS has once again cancelled a northerly plunge, which it showed yesterday]

ECM - takes a middle position on the depth of the storm between GFS and FAX. Then unlike GFS in which the subsequent HP ridges from Scotland to Scandinavia, ECM places the ridge further south, on Tue 6th Cornwall to S Poland.

AIFS - London, maxima around 20C through to Sat 10th but with a possibility of 25C on Tue 29th; rain (but not much) Wed 30th and Sat 10th. Edinburgh, maxima mostly 15-16C but a couple of warmer days to 18C Wed 30th and Fri 9th. Rain, again not much, Sun 27th, Wed 30th and Fri 9th.

GEFS - a couple of bumps of warmth, to 7c above norm in the S (less in N) for the end of this month, then some fairly good clustering of ens member at or a little above norm to Mon 12th (op, +ve, and control, -ve, breaking away from this consensus at the end). Rain Wed 30th  for all, in the S add Fri 9th , in the N add Mon 28th,  always one run or another showing some rain but nothing consistent or probable.

Atlantic storms come and go occasionally influencing Britain's weather, but a block of HP, at various times somewhere between Sweden and Ukraine, is the dominant feature. No prospect of anything cold.

I will be watching closely this high 850s for 29th is true or fake.  True if 27C get reached under full sun all day, fake if no sun and much cooler surface temps than the temps recorded under lower 850's like yesterday was very warm and sunny despite lower 850's than today which seem very chilly and overcast. which should be 2-3C 850s today.

You do realise you can get relatively low t2m values with comparatively high t850s, in a number of different scenarios? They are not “fake”, just sometimes not indicative of surface conditions.

YTD  here - 334 mm, not much expected in first half of October. Same last year. Barcelona, average p.a. 625mm.  Alicante, centre of the Costas - Average annual rainfall in Alicante: 408.8mm. At the end of the year I'll compare temperatures and sunshine hours, especially Spring and Summer.

My YTD is 394mm which is up on the same time last year (358mm)

Rain developing over Britanny while the main rain band moves up from the south towards Scotland. There is little sign of low pressure moving west to east as one might expect in the autumn. Yet many forecasters have been predicting this west-to-east kind of scenario ad infinitum. 

FAX - fronts moving from the west across Britain but getting killed by new HP 1021mb C England tomorrow, Mon (compare NMA's comment about the rain band splitting into two). Next LP is 975mb off SW Ireland Tue 29th with S-ly gales for the west, but it runs N-wards to W Iceland, filling, by Thu 1st, when light W-lies return - the east coast may not even notice the front which just about makes it across.

GFS Op 06z - After the dramatics above, a quiet spell of weather for the following week with pressure fairly high in a broad ridge across Britain from the west. On Thu 8th the winds turn into the north with LP 995 mb Norway, and then on Sat 10th a cold core LP 975mb swings SE-wards into N Ireland, converting into a N-S trough for all of Britain. No sooner is that set up than it fills and by Mon 12th we're back to standard westerlies.

ECM also 06z - agrees with GFS, if anything keeping the LP on Tue 29th further out in the Atlantic with even less effect for E Britain. The 'broad ridge' of HP is more securely anchored to the parent HP 1035mb Poland Sat 3rd. The 00z output is then available to T+240 = Wed 7th, and the said ridge has drifted north to cover Scotland to Denmark 1030mb while shallow LP 1010mb lies in the Bay of Biscay. Not close enough for any rain in the south, though.

AIFS - London, maxima around 20C (up and down a bit at first) to Thu 8th, then much cooler to 12C by Mon 12th (that'll be a shock for the SE!) A very little rain on Wed 30th (in line with FAX) rather more on Sun 11th. Expect some cold nights w/b Sat 3rd (diurnal range as much as 14C).  Edinburgh, again maxima steady to start with, but holding at 15-17C; cooler to 10C by Mon 12th. Rain at intervals, Mon 28th , Wed 30th , a little on Fri 2nd, Thu 8th and Sun 11th, but the big diurnal range forecast for London not shown as weather is more cloudy. 

GEFS - England, warm for the end of this week (+5C from norm), cooling down before a long period Sat 10th a few degrees above norm. From Sat 10th ens members drop off, control to 10C below norm. mean accordingly also drops to 2 or 3C below norm. Significant rain Tue 29th for S/SE , Thu 1st more likely in W,  then dry until some runs with rain in them from Thu 8th. Scotland, similar temp profile though colder weather arrives Thu 8th, rain now and Thu 1st, then persistent in the west but only shown in a few runs for the NE.

* hungarian pigs

GFS Op - pressure rises behind the LP, 1030mb to cover Britain for the weekend, and staying around for the week to follow to Sat 10th. LP develops 985mb Denmark, close enough to bring N-lies at least for the east coast.

ECM - the HP has moved off to the SW a little by Thu 8th, still fine for Britain but N-lies begin  to develop earlier than Mon 12th.

AIFS - London, warming to 23C Tue 29th, a slight drop then maxima rising steadily to 23C again by Wed 7th and staying there - no drop-off as shown yesterday and as shown in GFS Op. A very little rain Wed 30th and weekend 10th/11th, not enough to affect drought conditions. Edinburgh, baseline maxima 15C broken by warmer periods around Wed 30th, Tue 6th and Sun 11th to 18C, frequent rain most rays from Wed 30th, maybe a short dry spell Tue 6th. A different world.

GEFS - generally warm with a little rain for the last few days of Sep, then mean and most ens members close to norm or a little above to Tue 6th, after which a wide spread of ens with op & control notably cold after 12th, mean still near norm; little chance of rain south of Manchester-Sheffield but quite persistent in small amounts in Scotland

Only in winter which we called it faux cold.   But for other seasons deem fake if very high 850's but very low maxes which I had few fakes this month which 17C was recorded but failed to deliever 29-30C due to overcast damp skies and cool maxes.

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=48656&model=gfs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1

 14C from noon onward so will prove if this will deliver 25C here with full sunshine as the threshold between surface and 850's are much reduced to 10-11 range compare to 15-17C in high summer months.  Warm start in October on AIFS and GFS ensembles around 18-20C daily maxes and cool nights. Some few GFS members want to drop to near -5C after 10th October which give us first air frost and normal for those in October. AIFS going for 10C line so totally opposite to GFS -5C attempts but doesn't matter as both would deliver warm sunshine or cold sunshine which suit fine due to being drier i want.  The longer to stay dry and settled to waste and prevent boring Autunmal weather until later November when snow chances are increased by then.

Gone are the maps showing extensive High Pressure over us into October, the Pressure is now higher to the SW allowing the Atlantic to come in over the top. This has happened all year and it's why Scotland didn't get a heatwave

It's too far ahead using the 5 day rule but after mid month the GFS shows an abrupt change to cold northerlies!

Massive serious fake as I expected to happen due to my guts instincts that it going to be very poor, extremely wet and dull one.  Yesterday was a lot warmer and sunny than today serious amount of fake high 850's.  This month dominated with fakes warmth and only get nice weather under lower 850's but warmer maxes.  I see October starting in a warm side so hope will be better and proper settled sunny weather with correct maxes represented by the 850's.

GFS Op 00z - follows on from FAX with pressure remaining high to the south with westerlies for a week from Thu 1st; then the HP intensifies but withdraws to the SW Thu 8th and wind goes round NW-ly; light at first but on Tue 13th the HP has collapsed and Britain's weather is under the control of LP in Scandinavia 990mb with a secondary LP crossing Scotland and initiating (if it happens) a period of northerlies for the first time in many weeks. Still mostly dry after the end of this week and very dry in the south.

ECM - like GFS

AIFS - London, maxima 20-22C to Tue 6th, then dropping to around 15C to Tue 13th; rain Wed 30th (trace), Wed 7th and Sat 10th. Edinburgh, maxima 15-17C to the 6th, then a slide rather than a drop to 11C by Tue 13th. Rain Wed 30th, Fri 2nd, Wed 7th and Sat 10th, in modest amounts. All a bit different from yesterday, reflecting a difficulty in positioning HP to the W and LP to the E - small changes in position make considerable difference to Britain's weather.

GEFS - England, small amounts of rain now (minimal chances later except for NW where often some rain) and rather warm for  couple of days; then mean temp stays near norm or a little above to Thu 15th - good ens agreement to Thu 8th after which a spread develops with individual runs varying from day to day. Scotland, warm spells now and around Tue 6th after which the spread with variation described for England develops. Rain from time to time but little of it reaching the NE

There were also a number of occasions during the summer when the high pressure would end up being to our north with a resulting easterly winds, so the North Sea also contributed to us not getting a heatwave here in Edinburgh (at least) in addition to the Atlantic being able to come in over the top of any high pressure at other times.

Those are two completely different effects but in both scenarios, the end result has been the same in terms of Edinburgh being deprived of any heatwave as a result.

However, I will add that Charterhall in the Scottish Borders had two three day heatwaves between 23 and 25 June, and between 8 and 10 July inclusive, and even a four day heatwave between 11 and 14 August inclusive. This means that whilst it is true that the vast majority of Scotland didn't experience any heatwaves during the summer (Edinburgh certainly didn't experience any heatwaves), we can't quite say that Scotland as a whole, didn't experience any heatwaves although you had to be in the extreme south of Scotland in parts of the Borders which are very close to the English border, to have actually been able to experience any heatwaves here in Scotland.