It show a southerly to SE on 24-25th dates so that should bring sunny warm to hot air flow over the UK as the HP move east.  

GFS Op 00z - the above HP is less mobile than forecast yesterday in this model (ECM had it right), moving to the N Sea with a light but warm SE-ly drift Fri 25th and on to the Baltic States 1030mb Wed 30th with Britain still under its influence. Then LP develops mid-Atlantic and moves to west of Ireland Sat 3rd, fresher SW-lies for Britain except the SE which retains HP influence.

ECM - downplays the effect of the HP cell. By Fri 25th HP is part of a slack area of pressure over Europe and touching SE England  - fairly warm there - while a depression 970mb has formed south of Iceland with SW-lies for most of Britain and even gales for the far NW. By Mon 28th, high pressure is centred on the Russian border and there is a broad trough extending south over Britain.

AIFS - London, maxima around 20C to Tue 29th and dry ( a couple of warmer days to 23C, Tue 22nd and Sun 27th), then cooling to 15-16C with significant rain. Edinburgh, maxima 18-19C to the 29th but cooler now and around Wed 23rd before cooler (cf London) to 13C. Rain Wed 23rd and after Tue 29th

GEFS - For S England and Midlands mean temp well supported by ens suite at 2-3C above norm to Fri 25th before a spread of ens members develops; mean and most ens members drift lower, but control and op runs with a few others promise 8C above norm on most days into October. Dry in the south until Sun 27th, then a little showing up in some ens members. Scotland and to some extent N England have a shorter warm spell for mean and most ens members (ending Wed 23rd) though control and op are still very warm outliers. Rain in the N Sat 19th and increasingly likely and in the west heavy from Wed 23rd.

NHC - still no tropical disturbances

A late September heatwave if you pin your hopes on GFS op & control, supposedly the more likely outcomes, but the majority view is for a more modestly warm spell. Will GFS backtrack as it traditionally does for cold spells in winter?

GFS Op 00z - the second anticyclone above settles over the N Sea with ridge to Scandi and brings up warmth from the S/SE by Thu 24th. The Scandi part of the anticyclone takes over, and for several days Britain weather is in the balance between a continental HP and an Icelandic trough; mild weather from the south, wetter in west and drier in the east but liable to flop either way. As forecast today, the trough is dominant Mon 28th & Sat 3rd,  and HP is dominant Thu 1st. Eventually LP moves up from the south to SE England 1010mb Mon 5th to break the pattern.

ECM - similar to GFS though the continental HP is less intense

AIFS - London, maxima 20-22C to Mon 28th, then 27C for a couple of days before down to 18C with rain. Edinburgh, maxima rather variable 15-19C all the way to Sat 3rd, rain Wed 23rd, a little for the following weekend, a lot more Thu 1st and after.

GEFS - in the S, mean and ens temps agree on above norm to Sun 27th, as much as 5C above for that weekend, and dry. Then a big ens spread develops, temps between 8C above and below (as might be expected form the GFS synoptics) and rain appears in several runs. In the N, similar, but add a cool day with rain in the middle of the warm spell, Wed 23rd.

It looks like there will be a heat wave around the end of next week, but quite likely short-lived, and models disagree as to whether the peak will be before or after the weekend, Still very dry in the south.

Not sure if they are right or wrong but all models including ECM was only showing 5 days of warmth mostly during the weekdays then settled and average temps at the weekend with Monday 28th which is extreme FI show LP sweeping in same as GFS and GEM so nothing to worry about FI, the main thing the warmth by all models had always been showing max 5 days of very warm weather, never going for over 5 or below 5 days.  if you took day off this week like myself you are in a luck.

GFS Op 00z - the depression (above) soon fills but manages to project a shallow trough across Britain Sun 27th. Then a new anticyclone builds from the SW and reaches Scandinavia Wed 30th. Although it wavers at first, by Sun 4th it is well established and pulling up warmth from the south. The final chart (Tue 6th) looks as if the cycle of trough and new HP is going to repeat.

ECM - this model squashes the anticyclones further south and then east, so more of a SW-ly influence after Sun 27th, and by becoming strong in the circulation of LP 945mb south of Iceland.

AIFS - London, maxima 20-22 C generally to Sun 4th; slightly warmer Fri 25th and a one-off peak at 25C on Wed 30th; rain Mon 28th and Fri 2nd. Edinburgh, maxima generally 16-18C with warmer days Tue 22nd and Wed 30th; rain Wed 23rd and at intervals after Tue 29th.

GEFS - for England, mean and ens above norm to Sat 27th, esp later in that period; then ens agreement breaks up - mean stays near norm to Tue 6th but both op & control much warmer at different times in the preceding week. Dry until Tue 29th then present in some ens members, also on Thu 24th in N & E and cooler there at that time. For Scotland,, expands on trend for N of England; mean and ens agree on two warm peaks Tue 22nd and Fri 25th but cool with rain between on 24th; then mean temp near norm and while op & control are above norm, this is not so exaggerated as for England. Rain also appearing in most ens members from Sun 27th.

Heat wave deferred to the first week of October (GFS Op)? or just pleasantly warm (ECM)? As previously, Britain's weather depending critically on relatively minor shifts in the position of HP somewhere near the Baltic and LP somewhere near Iceland, so a muddled picture. Certainly nothing cold forecast anywhere.

I don't have them anymore they are removed and banned from my phone after their poor performance over the summer and over exciting rain notifications that kept pestering me every few minutes,.  I just use my thermometer, window forecast and models.  Still looking great with strong build of HP 1025mb with  lot of sunny days this coming week so finally no rain for a week or so much needed dry break.  Some showing HP moving to North east, which if was in late December we would get some cold snowy weather out of it after the settled and cold frosty spells toward Xmas day.  

GFS Op 00z - the above is followed by W-lies then by SW-lies as a very deep LP develops S of Iceland 940mb Tue 29th. This crosses the Faeroes and fills rapidly leaving a trough and then lingering slack pressure over Britain for the following week until another HP cell from the SW reaches Scotland 1035mb Mon 5th, This again moves on E-wards, maybe this time connecting with a Mediterranean southerly on Wed 7th.

ECM - Agrees with the above; the LPs are not as deep but the general effect is the same

AIFS - London, maxima 22-24C for the rest of this week, then 17-19C through to Mon 5th; some rain after Mon 28th, noticeable on Wed 30th. Edinburgh, a couple of warm days to start, then 14-17C to the 5th, rain Wednesdays 23rd and 30th, a little between theses dates, dry later.

GEFS - England, mean temp near norm between warmer spells (2-3C above) now, Sat 26th, Wed 30th, maybe Fri 2nd (op run favours this last one) but less pronounced in N England, chances of rain from Mon 28th improved from yesterday's chart plus some in N & E Wed 23rd. Scotland, same pattern of intermittent warmer spells but mean dropping below norm in between, heavy rain on 23rd, no consistently agreed dry spell afterwards either

Pleasantly warm but any heatwave pushed back yet again; rain in N & E but not in the south where it is needed.

Is that the rainy one? 😊

Could do with high pressure centred just north of Scotland, with a couple of active Channel lows meandering through underneath it.

I've had enough rain 

Be careful what you wish for.  Pub run looking horrendous.  

Does it seem to me the LP had been push back to mid next week instead of Sunday/Monday deep LP which now replace with average but nice weekend for here and the south with HP ridge around.  The less rain the better is for here to recover to normal dry levels since August.

GFS Op 00z - the remnants of the LP above survive and re-invigorate as LP 985mb Wed 30th Western Isles with trough extending south to the Channel. Although this moves off to the north there is a repeat on Sat 3rd which slowly drifts into the North Sea with northerlies for a time on Thu 8th. The jet stream is strong across Scotland this week, and then although less strong loops south lies through the Channel and up the North Sea for most days from Wed 30th onwards.

ECM - similar pattern but the LP Wed 30th is much deeper at 955mb with the prospect of severe gales for the NW.

AIFS - London, maxima around 24C hanging on for this week, then around 20C to Sat 3rd then 15C; rain Wed 30th and Fri 2nd, a little on other days. Edinburgh, warm at first, then 15-17C to Thu 1st, then 13-14C, rain at intervals, roughly every other day.

GEFS - In England, warm now, and a last hurrah 5C above norm for the coming weekend (a shorter warm spell in N England), then although there is a spread of ens members, most cluster around the mean just above norm to Thu 8th. Rain likely from Tue 29th onwards. In Scotland, temps up and down either side of norm to Wed 30th then settling to norm; rain tomorrow, then a dry-ish spell before rain sets in again Mon 28th and continues.

Summer is over! Well,for England from the end of the month and Scotland a few days earlier - not cold yet but certainly less settled.

GFS seems to have stepped back a bit , ECM has stepped

Trying to work out if this will be a named stormed or just windy and will it end up further north......

GFS Op 00z - Following the above, from Tue 29th all the way to Fri 9th the pattern is for LP to the west of Ireland and HP Eastern Europe to bring up warm or very warm S-lies. Sometimes the LP is closer (a storm ca 955 mb off SW Ireland Tue 29th), sometimes the HP pushes westwards (Sat 3rd). Eventually on Fri 9th LP moves in 1000mb N England. Jet stream more fragmented than shown yesterday so not steering LPs past S Britain.

ECM - similar to GFS but the storm Tue 29th moves up the west coast to affect the Western Isles with severe gales instead of filling fairly quickly

AIFS (only downloading to Sat 3rd) - London, maxima 20C with occasional warmer days to 24C, rain Mon 28th and Wed 30th. Edinburgh, maxima 15-17C (Wed 30th warmer), rain mostly now and Fri 2nd, small amounts at other times.

GEFS - England, mean and most ens members have temps close to norm except for a couple of days around Fri 25th and again Wed 30th when warmer, less marked in west (but Op run as above is bullish for warmth throughout). Dry until Wed 30th (contradicts FAX) and smaller amounts after that. Scotland, same warm spells but shorter duration and below norm between, Rain today and from Mon 27th but no great amounts in the latter period.

Those hoping for an early October heatwave should keep their eyes on GFS Op (and ignore other forecasts); those in the south hoping for significant rain are likely to be disappointed.

Its one of those that will go down to just a few days ahead.  At the moment ECM brings it close and nasty, GFS keeps it away but that will change

so half and half then!

GFS looking very anticyclonic to start October, which fits with the Met office medium range text. 

GFS Op 00z - after Fax, a brief quiet spell; then by Wed 30th, Britain receiving strong S-lies between a new LP 960mb W of Ireland and HP 1030mb Baltic. At first this LP moves N-wards and the winds go back SW-ly, but then returns as a weak feature 995mb N Ireland Mon 5th drifting slowly E-wards to the N Sea and by Sat 10th there is a N-ly, at least for the east coast

ECM - like GFS to Sat 3rd, but then HP develops over N France and there is no LP feature on Mon 5th.

AIFS - London, maxima 19-21C for the first week with a couple of hot days thrown in tomorrow (Fri) and Tue 29th; then from Sat 3rd 15-17C. Rain Mon 28th, Wed 30th and after Wed 7th. Edinburgh, maxima 15C for the first week, warmer on Wed 30th; from Sat 3rd 13C. Rain tomorrow (Fri), Sun 27th and Wed 30th then Thu 8th, almost dry between.

GEFS - England, a couple of peaks well forecast by all ens members (6-7C above norm) tomorrow Fri and Wed 30th otherwise a spread with mean a little above norm - but by Mon 5th the spread is from 6C below to 10C above. Small amounts of rain in most runs from Mon 28th, heavier and more probable in west. Scotland, similar temp profile, rain away from NE starts a day or two earlier and is heavier and more persistent