At least those NE to E winds will be much welcome drier air and remove all the horrible dampness that had been around since 17th August.  The settled weather started arrving either Thursday or Friday to fully blown HP on 22nd and onward and the north that badly need HP will get it about time.

GFS Op 00z - like Fax, but greater rises of HP between fronts, and in particular enough on Sun 20th to push fronts away northwards and form a cell 1030mb Mon 21st SW England. This HP cell dominates UK weather to Fri 25th, moving to NE England and bringing up warmth from the south before flattening out and sinking southwards Wed 30th

ECM - quite close to GFS Op until Thu 24th when the HP is moving quite rapidly eastwards, centred Estonia.

AIFS - London, maxima 20C, a couple of degrees warmer at first and again Mon 21st, then dropping to around 15C. Traces of rain occasionally in the first week. Edinburgh, maxima around 15C but much warmer today and Mon 21st (20C) , cooler (12C) from Sat 26th. Rain on many days, drier slots around Wed 23rd and Sun 27th.

GEFS - In England temps a few degrees below norm Tue 15th -Sat 18th, otherwise mean typically 4 - 5 C above norm, supported by ens members for the first week after which a spread develops but no dramatic outliers. Small amount of rain Thu 17th in S, more persistent in N for the first week, else most likely dry, perhaps some after Sat 26th. In Scotland, the cool period 15th-18th is there, but the subsequent warmer temps fad back to norm earlier (Sat 26th). Rain quite likely at any time but especially Tue 15th, Mon 21st and Sun 27th.

NHC - small tropical disturbance in C Atlantic, but virtually no prospect of development to TS let alone hurricane in the next 7 days

Dreading the fake 14C uppers to arrive this evening but looking warmer after the coming welcome drier, cooler and sunnier few days coming up.  Temperatures should be low 20s to mid 20's by that time next week which is warmer than now.

A premature use of the term? Indian summer is not supposed to be called until after the first frost.

And I'd be delighted to use the European term, St Martin's summer, rather than the American version,  Indian summer, if only to spite Tump and his passion for renaming things US-Style.

Given how little frost we get these days it might be that we'll have to start bending that particular rule!

I did not know that, I wonder how many genuine ones there have been,  Cant be many

Yep plenty of Op runs atm would likely break the September cet record. 

Beautiful warm chart and same story with southern half very warm and further north cooler which happened this summer. 

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=48656&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1

 Quite a lot going for 15C but overall looking very nice and warm mid 20's for a week long so need to patch up for cutting off the summer off on 17th August to today date so need to make up to 4 weeks of settled and drier weather I am hoping for.  1995 was the last time we got indian summer after a air frost at -2c in opening day of October which lasted to very end of the month about 4 weeks with 70% parched landscape appeared again.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/m1717941-Breakout-thread 

GFS Op 00z - HP stops lurking Sun 20th and by Mon 21st is well established 1030mb W England. It drifts N-wards and by Thu 24th is off E Scotland bringing up warmth from the south. It continues to move on and by Thu 1st has left a weak but broad ridge connecting Scandinavia to the Azores, via Britain.

ECM - like GFS but the HP drifts more E-wards than N-wards, allowing a weak trough to cross Scotland Fri 25th

AIFS - London, warm today, then maxima rising from a cooler 18C to 26C on Fri 25th, then cooling and quite sharply so on Monday 28th (17C). Traces of rain this week else dry. Edinburgh, maxima rising from 15C now to 19C Mon 21st and holding there for most of the week (bar a cooler day Wed 23rd) before sliding to 13C or so from Mon 28th. Rain on most days but a drier period for the weekend of 26th/27th. The rainfall pattern matches ECM rather than GFS.

GEFS - mean and ens members agree on a cool few days to Sat 19th. Then as ens agreement breaks up, mean takes up a value a few degrees above norm to the end of the month (op is well below this but control well above, these two differing by 15C around Tue 29th). A little rain Thu 17th otherwise in S dry with minimal chance of rain after 29th; in the N the chance of rain starts 23rd and is higher, but not shown in every run.

It looks as if some TWO members will enjoy a warm spell next week, though not nailed on, but in England gardeners and farmers trying to get crops to germinate will still be disappointed by the lack of significant rain

GFS Op 00z - the Brittany anticyclone asserts itself and moves to England 1030mb Mon 21st. It drifts northwards to Orkney 1035mb Thu 24th bringing up warm air from the S/SE before moving east to Scandinavia  and eventually forming a broad ridge from there to the Azores Fri 2nd . A trough approaches the SW on Mon 28th but is pushed back.

ECM - as GFS until Thu 24th; the anticyclone collapses, never reaches Orkney and instead by Fri 25th a depression 990mb Faeroes swings a trough across Britain from the west.

AIFS - London, maxima 19-22C until Thu 24th with a little rain from time to time, then dry with 25-27C until Tue 29th. Edinburgh, a baseline of 14-16C with peaks to 20C Mon 21st, Fri 25th and Tue 29th, Some rain in the next few days, dry at the end of next week, rather more and heavier rain from Mon 28th.

GEFS - In S England and Midlands, cool for a couple of days, then from Sat 19th to Mon 28th mean temp is 2-4C above norm with good ens support, At that point ens temps begin to drop away led by op & control, and the mean closes in on norm; a little rain Fri 18th, then dry until some chances after Mon 28th. In N England and Scotland the warm spell stutters at first and establishes properly from Mon 21st but ending at about the same time; a little rain Thu 17th and Fri 19th, beginning again Sat 26th; in some runs a wet day Thu 24th.

Heat hounds should follow GFS this week and then switch their allegiance to AIFS; the models this morning contain plenty of contradictions.

AIFS even warmer than GFS quite a lot of them going to 15-17C for here. which I am going for this or GFS as they are warm as well.

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=48656&model=aifs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1

 When the E Med get unsettled and cooler like this it always a good sign for NW Europe to be settled, warmer and much welcome drier weather.

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=28552&model=aifs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

GFS Op 00z - the above high pressure moves on, more quickly than yesterday, to Scandinavia by Wed 23rd, this less prospect of warm S-lies at first; but it returns 1025mb Fri 25th so drawing up warmth later in the week (AIFS spotted this yesterday). The HP cell then goes walkabout - Iceland Tue 29th, back to Britain Thu 1st, Germany Sat 3rd, and each time while it's away, low pressure approaches the south/southwest but makes little impression.

ECM - like GFS to Wed 23rd but by Fri 25th low pressure develops near Iceland and brings back westerlies for the following weekend with high pressure well south into Europe.

AIFS - London, dry with maxima a degree or two either side of 20C to Sun 27th, then cooler at 16-17C with rain on Tue 29th. Edinburgh, mostly around 15C but warmer around Mon 21st and cooler around Mon 28th; a little rain from time to time in the coming week, heavy rain Tue 29th.

GEFS - in the south, after a cool day with a little rain, a period with mean temp 2-3C above norm to Tue 29th, when ens support drops away as ens members one by one show cooler and mean returns to norm with significant chances of rain. As yesterday, the north is similar but the warmer spell takes time to get going with another cool rain day on the 19th, and additionally for Scotland, the end of the warm spell along with increased prospects of rain is forecast earlier, around Fri 25th.

long range ECM rebuilds the block again for end of month but its been all over the place so no point looking too far ahead

shorter term, looks pleasant next week for the south especially, though nothing record breaking. 

AIFS show a lot of members going for 15c both here to London and 25th September is the peak warmest day before gradual dropping down but still above average to October.  Both mean for GFS and AIFS is 10-11C here to 12-13C respectively so both are pleasant warm runs. Can we get to 100 times of 25C days if October can get some warm weather? They done a lot long time ago with 28C for a week think about 100 years ago?  1995 had couples of them up to 26C.

lets see what the 06z shows