Would be nice to have some much welcome drier and settled weather it been well over due for a settled weather that can last last more than a week or 2 than 24 hours settled slots.    

Perhaps it is the super El nino, but everytime high is forecast to build, it gets squashed.  Lets at least hope the south can get some warmth 

We've already had warmth - not only the warmest summer by a country mile, but the last couple of days have reached 26C down here - just 5C above average. Today will, assuming it fails to get to 20C, be the first time that's happened since the 11th May. Some cooler-than-average temperatures for once would be most welcome, and we might just get that over the next couple of days.

Bah Humbug! 

Did you mean 11th June? The Met Office has a national max of just 19.3C on June 10 and 19.9C on June 11.

Yes a bit higher 850's for here up to 13-14C while GFS showing 11-12C.  I do hope this coming warmer weather come with much needed drier and sunnier weather package.  I see unwanted rain spikes also appearing on both here and London during the warmer 850s so hope this get removed.  ?We got far too much rain lately and outstayed it welcome this nearly 1 month of unsettled weather now.  Not sure how CET will be high since the maximum did not exceed 30C yet this month it been just tad above average but mostly average to cooler days so far this month.  

No 30c days so far but warm days and also crucially mild nights. AIFS continues that trend. 

GFS Op 00z - like FAX but makes less of LP on Sat and moves that on Mon NE-wards with only a broad trough over Britain. Then this model continues with the westerly theme, LP near Scotland, HP near the Channel, with the flow between bringing alternating troughs and ridges (strongest ridge with mild SW-lies Tue 22nd, deepest trough with cold NW-lies Fri 25th. 

ECM - also agrees on a westerly with alternating troughs and ridges

AIFS - London, maxima generally rising from 18C now to 26C Mon 21st, interrupted by a few cooler days around Wed 16th, A very little rain in the first week then dry. Edinburgh, maxima rising from 15C now to 19C Mon 14th with some rain, then a copycat reset over the same range for the following week but drier.

GEFS - ens members agree on a succession of warmer and cooler days to Tue 15th with rain likely 12th or 13th and again on 15th or 16th, but after that ens members spread widely; at any given date you can find warmer/ cooler or wetter/drier options in the mix. Mean temp remains near norm.

Pleasant autumn weather for the south after next weekend, unsettled in the north, but nothing that could be described as a heatwave in GFS - but AIFS thinks differently in the FI timeframe. 

Yup, I don't know why I changed it to May - I'd originally written June. Maybe it's the start of going senile! 🤪

Same on 06z, there 2 13C 850s for here whlie GFS show 12C and 13C respectively then stay warm above average to the end so hope to see mid 20's and full sunshine.  Can't wait for ths extremely dirty cool non-fresh air to end by tomorrow.  Nomrally in September NW winds bring gin clear skies, cool nights and nice sunny days but this time very dirty. not sure if Greenland are now dirty place for us under NW flow.   

Or just catastrophising? 

..meanwhile more dirty illegal fake cool air from Greenland looks likely til the weekend. 

GFS Op 0z - continues the westerly theme of FAX; higher pressure than FAX over the south to start with. Later a deeper trough in the westerlies affects all of Britain Sat 19th followed by a rise in pressure Wed 23rd developing into a major HP cell Fri 25th with warmth from the south.

ECM - resembles GFS

AIFS - London, maxima 20-22C with occasional rain until Tue 15th, then cooler and drier but rising again to 25C Tue 22nd, then once again dropping. Edinburgh, similar temp profile but heavier rain every other day until Sun 20th.

GEFS - in the south, a double hump of warmth Sat 12th and Tue 15th, then mean temp close to norm to Sat 26th but with increasing spread of ens members; op run is cool at first but very warm towards end. Rain on Sun 13th in far S, then small amounts generally from Thu 17th but not in every run nor on every day, In the north, similar but less pronounced temp profile, a little rain on 13th, much more on Tue 15th and then the variable outlook.

GFS Op 00z - After Monday 14th more of an HP cell arising to the SW but not enough to disrupt the westerlies by much until Sun 20th when it transfers to the Baltic and briefly shifts the winds into  warm southerlies. But it moves on and more active LP  comes in from the Atlantic 975mb Western Isles Thu 24th, still present as a filling trough Sat 26th.

ECM - similar to GFS but the HP cell to the SW is slower to develop an allows a day (Fri 18th) when the winds are cool NW-ly.

AIFS - London, maxima 20-22C with rain on Sun 13th and Tue 15th; then cooler and drier at 17-19C to Sun 20th before becoming warmer again. Edinburgh, maxima 14-16C to Sun 20th but with a couple of warmer days early next week, and occasional rain in this period. From the 21st, warmer and drier at 17-19C.

GEFS - rather warm esp in the south to Tue 15th, both mean and ens members, then mean temp near norm Sat 26th with a moderate spread of ens members, control a cool outlier early on (down to 10C below on 21st) and op a warm one later (8C above on 24th).  Rain on Sun 13th in the south of England, 13th and 15th in the north, mainly on 15th in Scotland, fairly dry at other times but with chances of more persistent rain in NW

NHC - still no tropical disturbances for the Atlantic

GFS Op - As in FAX, the westerlies continue with occasional embedded disturbances until Thu 24th when HP spreads up from the south and forms a block 1030mb Holland, switching the wind  briefly to a warm S-ly. The W-lies are back two days later.

ECM - a similar theme to GFS, but produces the blocking HP earlier, 1025mb Belgium Mon 21st.

AIFS - London, maxima 19-21C to Tue 22nd with rain at first slowly dying out; then after a dip, drier with temps rising to 26C by Sat 26th. Edinburgh, maxima 16-18C at first, then 14-16C to Wed 23rd with rain at intervals, then warmer to 21C and drier by Sat 26th

GEFS - warm, mean and ens members 5-8C above norm to Tue 15th, but ens agreement progressively breaks up, mean cool to Mon 21st then a little above norm but control much warmer Sat 26th. Rain in S England today and tomorrow, mostly dry thereafter, further N and in Scotland heavy on 15th and persistent over the next ten days.

The one thing I hadn’t expected was a mixed bag, occasional rain, nice warmish spells, changeable but decent. But that seems to be this month. Very warm by pre climate change standards, but otherwise pretty normal. 

It been very bland month with lack of sunshine, no settled weather since 17th August so it been very boring poor month.  00z ensembles show weird wet outlier spike today? Don't see any rain as we under warmer strong HP cell now for few days.  I notice the ensembles this month had been showing severe cold, hot and wet outliers and still showing outliers all sorts.  Not sure what the cause of outliers being shown every run which some are at reliable range too?  No wonder why with outliers it causing forecasters to use word MIXED as they have no clue to know what it coming thanks to unreliable models.  Let see today uppers are 13c here which related to 25-27C so i see if they are correct with it.

Feels like a 90s September.  I remember when I first went to Uni in 95 it was quite warm, and then again in 96.   We had some decent cold spells the following winters.

GFS Op 00z - More westerlies (LP N of Scotland, HP over France) to Wed 23rd when HP asserts itself and moves NE from the Atlantic to Ireland 1035mb. By Sat 26th the HP drifts E-wards and brings up warmth from the south(east) but it soon splits and on Mon 28th a small LP 990mb N Sea is squeezed between the two parts.

ECM - Like GFS but HP is more to the west of France to start with and arrives a day earlier on Tue 22nd

AIFS - London , a shallow dip to 18C in maxima between 22C now and a rise to 24C by Sat 26th, a little rain occasionally this week, then dry. Edinburgh, same trend, but dip to 14C between 18C now, , up to 22C Sat 26th, rain at times this week but heavier than in London. 

GEFS - mean and ens members' temp from above norm Tue 15th (7C above in S, 5C in N) dropping sharply until Sat 19th (5C below in S, 3C in N). Then mean goes back to near or a little above norm as ens agreement breaks up;; op and control on the warm side until Mon 28th when dramatically colder. In the S, a little rain now and around Fri 18th otherwise pretty well dry; in the N rain on Tue 16th and intermittently thereafter but persistent in N/NW Scotland

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=48656&model=aifs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

The last 3rd of the month looking warm and settled, but with the El Nino, hard to say if the jet will just blast it away