That why I totally against and hate unsettled weather as they often lasted 6 weeks minimum to full season.  We need to hope that HP to win to keep this summer going while the date is 19th August.  Need to see the 12z runs for our summer to recover after it been cut off 3 days now and outstayed it welcome.  

GFS Op 00z - all the above LPs combine into an elongated trough W of Ireland which brings up heat from the south (again!) for the start of next week, but then moves into Britain as a more focused LP 1000mb Irish Sea Fri 28th. drifting slowly E-wards and followed by another from the Atlantic 1000mb southern N Sea Tue 1st with a generally westerly regime over the BH weekend. The second LP then sits over Scandinavia with NW then N-ly winds for Britain to Fri 4th, while more LPs line up in the Atlantic to the SW. No ex-hurricanes this morning.

ECM - resembles GFS, though the LP from FRi 28th are more like extensions of a trough dipping S-wards from Iceland

AIFS - London, maxima 21-23C to Tue 3rd, highest around Wed 26th; rain as yesterday, a little this week, then a dry slot over the weekend, then on most days from Wed 26th onwards. Edinburgh, maxima 15C at first then in range 16-18C, rainfall pattern as for London perhaps the dry slot has an extra day each end.

GEFS - mean temp with fairly good ens support shows 3-4C below norm to Mon 24th, then 3-4 C above norm in S to Thu 27th, but 2-3C above in N & W, then near norm to Sat 5th. Traces of rain this week in the south, then from Tue 25th onwards widespread rain on many days, occasionally heavy, .

00z extend the warmth to Friday and any rain had been pushed back to the BH which is under massive outlier so the models haven't decided yet if this Low will move or sent down to Iberia that many want for their dry BH weekend.  Look very dry again in September.  No need for heating Beast unfortunately.

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=48656&model=gfs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1

Massive severe wet outlier on the start of the BH weekend otherwise very dry now and after BH weekend.

 https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=48656&model=gfs&var=4&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

GFS Op 00z - The active LP above merges with a trough dipping S from Iceland, and by Thu 27th moves closer and generates a centre 995mb C England. This drifts N-wards but pressure remains generally low over Britain through the BH weekend. After a brief rise in pressure a shallow LP moves along the Channel 1010mb Fri 5th while more is brewing near Greenland.

ECM - resembles GFS, if anything running 12-24 hours behind

NHC - plots a couple of tropical disturbances on the Atlantic but neither is expected to develop or approach land.

AIFS - London, maxima 20-22C through to Fri 4th (a little higher Wed 26th), maybe a shower at first, persistent rain from Thu 27th (but rain is always one week away!). Edinburgh, maxima 15-17C with warmer interludes to 20C Mon 24th and Fri 28th, significant rain Fri 28th and Thu 3rd, traces at other times but with drier slots around Sun 23rd and Tue 1st.

GEFS - mean temp with good ens support, 3-4C below norm tomorrow 22nd to 3-4C above Wed 26th (both the cool and warm spells less marked in north), soon down to norm lasting to Sun 6th (op and control cool at this stage balanced by a couple of hot outliers). Perhaps a little rain now but heavy and persistent in most ens runs from Wed 26th onwards. (Three ens members forecasting 30mm for London on 27th, and the op showing 45mm for Liverpool on that date).

A properly vile spell of weather for late summer on the way and the Bank Holiday Curse strikes again.

One man's meat?

Looks good to me Who can complain after a Summer like we have had,in fact the majority probably glad it is a bit cooler.

Today is cooler but will be thankfully warmer and settled this coming weekend and next week before the wet BH weekend so hope the models downgrade it or move the Low further SW, thankfully it in very far FI for more time to change the Low track.  Unsettled had been push back from Tuesday onward to now Friday to target BH so hope to push back further.  Also extremely early for Autumn if you aware about the date today 21st August, not 21st September yet.  

I can take a little cooler. It's the unsettled bit that's the pisser.

There's plenty of time through autumn/winter/spring for wet and dreary

GFS Op 00z - by Fri 28th that last LP has moved to Wales 995mb, and thence northwards, combining with LP off Iceland for a cool week of NW/W winds, LP never far from N Scotland but relatively settled in S England. On Sun 6th, a disruptor appears in the shape of an ex-hurricane (yes, it's back in today's charts!) 950mb mid-north Atlantic, heading for the Faeroes. But Hurricanes make their own weather!

ECM - like GFS to Fri 28th, then the LP stays over England , slowly filling and becoming a shallow trough linked to Scandinavia Tue 1st.

AIFS - London, maxima 21-24C to Sat 5th, some rain Wed 26th - Mon 31st, then a heavier fall Fri 4th. Edinburgh, maxima 15-18C but 20C after Wed 2nd, rain a day or two later than London later i.e. Fri 28th - Tue 1st and then Sat 5th

GEFS - mean temp well supported by ens members, 2 or 3C above norm Mon 24th - Fri 28th (peaking early in S & W, later in N & E) , then close to norm to Mon 7th, rain heavy generally around Thu 27th, slowly fading out thereafter in the S but never completely dry, more persistent in N & W

Likely warmer for a few days next week but unlikely to qualify as a heatwave

London have a chance to get to 30C again with the 850s at 14C and some members going over 16C.  Here possible 28-30C as the ground now very dry again.  Too many wet outliers after the 27th so to be ignored for now.  I think Last heatwave 7 thread to be open?  Seem no one interested with this coming warm to hot spell due to extreme high expectation lately, if this was 2024 will see lot of posts, temperature charts and extreme excitement.  

Indeed, considering we had 38.1c last week, the 'possibility' of getting to 30c doesn't cause anyone to bat an eyelid.

I tell you what though, 38c in September sounds impossible to me, but September/June used to have th exact same max of 35.6c. Anyone else have thoughts of the possiblity of 38c in September? Not this one, but generally. Might make a new thread on it.

This then recovers very quickly with a distinct pressure rise and drier conditions into September. Warm throughout. 

 I personally don’t think 38c is possible in September in the UK. Weakening of the sun and shorter days just make it a mathematical impossibility. 

There some 2 humps with some support for warm up in September at any time possible like mid 20's.  Looking forward to warm up this coming week before the poor BH weekend but it doesn't show much rain for that weekend so not sure all the talk of movie fictional USA heavy rain type posts in other side otherwise the ensembles will show spikes of 25-50mm of rain but i only see is max 2mm and very wet outlier without support.

GFS Op 00z - That second LP moves in to cover Britain for the whole (English) BH weekend [yesterday it linked via a trough to Iceland but today's chart keeps it local]. It fills and moves eastwards and there is a modest rise in pressure Tue 1st before a shallow trough approaches from the west, later supercharged by an ex-hurricane 980mb Western Isles Mon 7th moving into the North Sea with N-lies behind  [yesterday shown as passing well north of Scotland]. 

ECM - as GFS, but with a tendency to keep pressure lower over the west of Britain rather than centrally placed.

NHC has a disturbance of W Africa with 50% prospects of development in 7 days - this could be the one showing up in Scotland Mon 7th.

AIFS - London, maxima 22-24C to Sun 30th (highest Wed 26th) then dropping to 18-20C through to Sun 6th; rain on most days from Wed 26th onwards, maybe a dry-ish slot Thu 3rd. Edinburgh, maxima 18-20C this week (highest tomorrow 24th) but 14-16 next week (highest Fri 4th); rain on most days from Thu 27th, dryer from Sat 5th.

GEFS - mean temp well supported by ens members, 2 or 3C above norm to Wed 26th (England) or around Fri 28th (Scotland) then close to norm to Tue 8th (op and control have one-off warmer days towards the end). Rain heavy Thu/Sat 27/29th (generally), then around Thu 3rd (not C England) and Mon 7th (various places) but also plenty on other days.

An end to the drought, often forecast but always deferred, at last looks certain! (But Scots will be saying 'what drought?')

Possibly a bit but it will become clearer over the next few runs. 

On the subject of rain, the ECM 00z shows a very wet week to come for many parts of northern England. I suspect it is overdoing it a bit.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/accumulated-precipitation/20260830-0000z.html 

The outlook for the second half of the coming week does look more unsettled than recent weeks for many, but possibly nothing noteworthy.

Possibly.

The UKV map has some big chunks of rain here and there across the south but not all at once; most areas get one heavy fall between T=111 and 120 (Thu/Fri)

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx 

Sarah Keith-lucas showed a chart on the BBC which had (a) a narrow but heavy band of rain along the south coast on Wed (b) an accumulated rainfall map with the greatest amounts to central S England and to the NE, relatively less for the Midlands

Those accumulated figures look a bit nuts!