FAX - LP ca 1000mb traversing Britain en route from Rockall today to Germany Fri 21st, but shallow, and although it's accompanied by a random selection of fronts, doesn't look like offering any really unsettled weather. But it does switch the wind direction to a cooler northerly.

GFS Op 00z - as the LP forecast by FAX fills, HP moves in from the southwest and builds a ridge of sorts to Scandinavia in the week to Fri 28th. For the Bank Holiday weekend this HP pulls back and another couple of shallow LPs move SE-wards from Iceland, mainly affecting Scotland. Then some real action - an ex-hurricane which appears off the eastern USA Sat 29th tracks across the Atlantic retaining its identity to be positioned 970mb near N Ireland Wed 2nd with disturbed weather and gales for all of Britain. But wait for this to be confirmed before counting on it; it wasn't being shown in yesterday's GFS charts and it's not being shown on the NHC 7-day chart as a developing system.

ECM - like GFS to Mon 24th but the ridge of HP then splits as a shallow trough extends SE-wards from Iceland affecting NW Ireland to Cornwall by Thu 27th (there was a similar tendency in GFS, hence the 'of sorts', but GFS didn't pursue this possibility)

AIFS - London, maxima decreasing to 20C by Sat 22nd with a little (showery?) rain this week, rising again to 23C Wed 26th before falling back to 20C with heavier rain after that date. Edinburgh, similar temp profile but about 3C cooler, a little rain also this week but substantial amounts Fri 28th and Mon 31st.

GEFS - mean temp with good ens support dropping to a little below norm for a week from Wed 19th, then close to norm. Rains possible at any date; in the S light and variable and most likely around Wed 26th; in the N heavy on Thu 18th with a dry-ish slot before resuming on 26th

it been over taken by the rain lovers and heat haters this morning talking about FI charts and not what the upcoming HP moving in this weekend and next week which look strong enough and decent with low to mid 20's as per Nuneaton ensembles, also it the coolness is cut a bit shorter and not that very cool as previous runs, it trying to creep back to average as it was showing 4C for many days to now 2-3 days only due to a hump on the 20th which was 4c before now to 7C.

For Birmingham,  GFS ems are as flat as a pancake with a rather showery feel to things.

I begining to think we're now past the peak of the heat this summer has to offer IMO.

Yes I get the feeling that it is the end of the extreme heat spells,the main heat is moving further East.I would think generally rainfall amounts will gradually increase.

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=aifs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Need another few days to see September and yes hope we can get another warm spell and if can reach 30C?  how many 30C days so far now? lost count as there so many this year.  

We've had 40 30c days.

Yes September could deliver,  Met Office hinting it might 

Does seem like we are transitioning into Autumn. Azores high retreating and atlantic lows heading further south towards us,

But September can produce heatwaves as we have seen in recent years.

GFS Op 00z - The HP referred to above briefly ridges to Scandinavia before it splits, and a trough of LP runs southwards from Iceland down the west coast (ECM had this outcome yesterday). The trough stalls near SW Britain and generates LP 1005mb in the Channel Thu 27th, drifting slowly eastwards. The next Atlantic LP stays off shore to the west and pumps up some heat Tue 1st.  The ex-hurricane introduced yesterday is still on the chart for Thu 3rd, but is stalled in mid-Atlantic - more warmth from the south and not so much unsettled weather.

ECM - like GFS but a less well defined LP in the Channel Thu 27th

AIFS - London, maxima dropping to 20C by the weekend and staying thereabouts through to Tue 1st; splashes of rain this week, heavier episodes Thu 27th and Sat 29th (still rain tomorrow, never rain today!). Edinburgh, maxima down to 14C Fri 21st, up to 17C Mon 24th and then declining slowly. Rain Wed 19th overnight and Fri 28th.

GEFS - good agreement of mean and ens temps; cool (2-3C below norm) to Thu 27th then near norm (though op is a warm outlier later on). Rain possible in small amounts on many days, most likely Thu/Fri 27/28th (a day or so earlier in W, and more persistent in Scotland after those dates)

Sept 1st just scrapes another 30C on the latest GFS. I think you'd be foolish to bet against seeing another. It will be interesting to see what the Met Office come up with as the final total. Based on their tweets I think we are on 40 as you say, but there must be some manual stations involved, unless Charlwood has been exonerated.

Need to see a trend for a heatwave in September and it must be done to happen, not nice to have a summer rudely cut off so early in mid August.  At least is not a outlier for this as there some members going for a hot spell so now to get through this unwanted cool weather.

Yes hopefully more heat appears for September,  rest of August looking OK but a little boring after such a prolonged spell of heat.

Can't find the article but BBC quoted the 40 30c days from the Met Office. 

I'm not an expert model watcher or analyst but the BBC 'stab in the dark' shows this. It's not, of course a stab in the dark but this is the first time I've seen something like this since June. I'm quietly optimistic.

Yes seen those wet outliers on the BH weekend but i will end the drought days if they really telling us that will deliver thunderstorms, plus 25-50mm of rain.  Until now to the BH looking very dry here with very unwanted cool start to average.  Some warm spikes but most are over the place so FI now is after day 2.  This cool weather due to arrive tomorrow had been slowly downgraded to near average so that why FI is from day 2.   

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=aifs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

GFS Op 00z - consistent with both the above FAX and yesterday's GFS; the ridge of HP splits as a trough extends south from Iceland and links with the Iberian LP, eventually (Wed 26th) developing into a shallow LP 1000mb London. This LP gets sucked into the parent LP near Iceland, and the whole complex swirls around, largely affecting Scotland and bringing in cool conditions, but extending down to the south coast  at times esp Mon 31st (curse of the Bank Holiday!), HP rebuilds from the SW Fri 4th; the ex-hurricane referred to yesterday is still stalled in mid-Atlantic.

ECM - similar to GFS but less of a localised LP over London, just part of the general trough.

AIFS - London, maxima not far from 23C through to Wed 2nd (range from 20C Sat 22nd to 25C Thu 27th), occasional small amounts of rain this week, distinctly wet Fri/Sat 28th/29th. Edinburgh, maxima down to 15C Sat 22nd, then rising and settling around 18C, peaks of rain Thu 20th and Fri 28th, traces at other times.

GEFS - mean temp with good ens support cool (2 or 3C below norm ) to Mon 24th, then close to or a little below norm through to Fri 4th. Rain in many ens members on various days, dry slot Sun/Mon 23rd/24th in south, Sat to Tue 22nd to 25th in north.

Each of GFS, ECM, AIFS & Icon have their own little differences, but the broad theme is of the AH ridging pretty far eastwards over the UK and into the North Sea. It gets squeezed from the north from around t+120 as a low sinks southwards over Ireland/western Britain. Simultaneously, low pressure over the western Med moves northwards. The two areas join up right over the UK and hang around like a bad smell.

As we move into FI, GFS, ECM, AIFS all try to ridge high pressure back over the UK from [broadly] the south, but each time the low fights back to reassert dominance. 

Time for changes (fingers crossed!) but I've seen this sort of set-up get established in summer - with a large and active low seemingly trapped over the UK by high pressure to W/N/E/S - many times before and it's an absolute tw*t to shift

That why I totally against and hate unsettled weather as they often lasted 6 weeks minimum to full season.  We need to hope that HP to win to keep this summer going while the date is 19th August.  Need to see the 12z runs for our summer to recover after it been cut off 3 days now and outstayed it welcome.  

GFS Op 00z - all the above LPs combine into an elongated trough W of Ireland which brings up heat from the south (again!) for the start of next week, but then moves into Britain as a more focused LP 1000mb Irish Sea Fri 28th. drifting slowly E-wards and followed by another from the Atlantic 1000mb southern N Sea Tue 1st with a generally westerly regime over the BH weekend. The second LP then sits over Scandinavia with NW then N-ly winds for Britain to Fri 4th, while more LPs line up in the Atlantic to the SW. No ex-hurricanes this morning.

ECM - resembles GFS, though the LP from FRi 28th are more like extensions of a trough dipping S-wards from Iceland

AIFS - London, maxima 21-23C to Tue 3rd, highest around Wed 26th; rain as yesterday, a little this week, then a dry slot over the weekend, then on most days from Wed 26th onwards. Edinburgh, maxima 15C at first then in range 16-18C, rainfall pattern as for London perhaps the dry slot has an extra day each end.

GEFS - mean temp with fairly good ens support shows 3-4C below norm to Mon 24th, then 3-4 C above norm in S to Thu 27th, but 2-3C above in N & W, then near norm to Sat 5th. Traces of rain this week in the south, then from Tue 25th onwards widespread rain on many days, occasionally heavy, .