Some useful rain possible??

Even the ECM has shown some useful rain for the last few runs.

GFS is probably overcooking the precipitation next week with temps much, much cooler. ECM more or less continues the drought in most places with temperatures in the mid 20’s for the duration.

Not sure I’d call that a dramatic change to Autumn, unless you live in parts of the far north west. 

If you live in the ”far northwest” it has been cooler and wetter than average this month so no dramatic change to autumn there as it had already begun. 

Elsewhere a very warm or hot few days then more seasonal.

Staying mostly fine & dry for another 5/6 days but after 25 C+ today and tomorrow in Eastern Scotland, it cools down to 15 - 19 C after Friday

By midweek next week Low pressure sinks SE into the North Sea with NW and then N winds. Windy with rain or showers more widespread with cold nights in The Glens!

EDIT: You just beat me to it Doc!

Not really, since you’re referring to about a quarter of the country….

Whilst there’s an understandable southern bias here it’s probably unwise to dismiss a sizeable slice of the country, particularly when what you say is somewhat misjudged?

It’s Autumn onset in the South East too next week. Early to mid 20s with the occasional shower is Autumnal in our new Mediterranean climate.

In any case, objectively we are entering a period with likely rain and average temperatures for the final third of August. That’s now modelled across all the main models and ensembles. 

GFS Op 0z - HP persisting from the SW after the 16th, dented a little by LP 1000mb in N Sea Tue 18th but not really displaced until Sat 22nd when LP moves down from Iceland to Wales 1005mb, which then slowly moves eastwards while HP re-establishes as a ridge over Scotland by Fri 28th. The ex-hurricane has been written out (again!).

ECM - like GFS at first but the LP on the 18th manifests as a more general trough across the north, which then introduces light N-ly winds by Sat 22nd; no sign of a distinct LP over Wales.

AIFS - London, peak maxima 34C Thu 13th, down to 20C by Mon 17th and staying there to Wed 26th; a little rain Sat 15th but quite frequent from Tue 18th though not heavy. Edinburgh, similar rain and temp profile, but temps peak at only 25C and level off at 16C.

GEFS - mean and ens peak Fri 14th at 10C above norm in the south, 7C above in N; then mean with good ens support down to norm from Mon 17th through to Fri 28th. Rain likely in general from Mon 17th, sporadic in south, more persistent in north, heavier bursts more likely in east.

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=50902&var=201&run=0&date=2026-08-12&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1 

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_138_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_144_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_168_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_186_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_210_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

Cool/very cool in fi with showery conditions up to 240 hs.

The models for next week onwards all “want” to bring us northwesterlies and troughs. Even when the AH pushes back and extends a tentacle, the models try their best to achieve the troughy pattern. I assume there’s something planetary doing this - probably the MJO. 

So it’s now all about unstoppable force (this large scale pattern change) meets immovable object (persistence of our summer pattern). 

The summer is certainly putting up a fight. I hope it can hang on for the rest of August so we can get some good stats ticked off.

I’d still say for the majority, a ‘dramatic change’ is an overstatement, given current output. 

Indeed. As much of a tragedy the New Forst fires are, nobody wants a backloaded summer holidays ruined with endless rain and wind to spoil the party. 

Feeding Winter forage since late July,quite frankly endless rain would suit me fine. Stuff the Summer Holiday.😄

Yep. we're partly self-sufficient for fruit and veg, but are struggling to keep our food alive this year. In our 60s and bent on doing the right thing wrt hosepipes, repeated heavy watering-can carrying is not as easy as it used to be.

I saw the local bowling green has been well hosed again. The hose is out.

Indeed - fortunately there’s nothing to suggest this 

ECM Monday followed by further spells on the extended 12z

GFS Op 0z - differs from FAX in taking the LP from Mon 17th on a more northerly course to merge with that over Scandinavia Thu 20th with little effect on British weather initially except to introduce weak northerlies. In this northerly flow, small disturbances move south from Iceland, one making it to SW England 1010mb Tue 25th, and hanging around over N France to Sat 29th while a ridge builds over Scotland from the SW.

ECM - like GFS

AIFS - London, peak maximum 35C today, dropping quickly to 25C Sun 16th and then more slowly to 20C over the next ten days; splashes of rain during this time then heavier on Wed 26th. Edinburgh, peak 25C today then 16-18C from Sun 16th onwards; rain concentrated overnight Mon 17th and Sat 22nd, plus a small amount between these dates.

GEFS - mean temp with good ens support dropping from 7-10C above norm now, to norm by Mon 17th and staying there to Sat 29th, even a little below later on. Rain likely in many places from Mon 17th, varying from England (low chance at first to probably significant Wed 26th, some big totals in the east), to Scotland (on most days in one run or another, heaviest around Tue 18th)

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_198_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

ECM 00z does bring a soaker in later on, but far from a washout up to that point.

Think I’ll keep the cagoule safely locked in the cupboard for now. 

Indeed, little to no rain in the foreseeable for here. Remaining very warm, and as you highlight, potential for another heatwave month end 

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=4&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

I think that just about scrapes 1mm on a couple of days.

It’s the winter equivalent of clutching at straws. 

Thats some impressive Spin!

I hope you are right, but I dont think this post will age well.