Yes not having a paddling pool is annoying,  although my boys would usually break them after about a week. Lol

GFS Op 0z - As for FAX; by Thu 13th the HP by then centred Germany 1020mb dominates, giving way by Mon 17th to LP 1005mb moving down from Iceland. to N England. After that there is a period of westerlies, still warm in the south and cool in the north.

ECM - like GFS but the LP due on Mon 17th appears on Sat 15th  to be stalling west of Ireland (last chart available at time of posting)

AIFS (only displaying to the 16th  this morning) - London, maxima rise to 32C Thu 13th dropping to 20C with rain by Sat 15th. Edinburgh, maxima rising to 20C by Tue 11th (some rain on Sun 9th) then 25C Wed 12th before decreasing again with a little rain.

GEFS - In England, a double peak heatwave with mean temp 4-7C above norm on Mon 10th and Thu 13th, back to norm on Mon 17th, all well supported by ens members. Reasonable chance of rain from Sun 16th  more definite in NW (but there's always rain shown ten days away!) . In Scotland, the double peak is there but depressed, against a background of mean below norm, thus only reaching norm on 10th and 5C above on 13th. A little rain around Mon 10th but quite certain from Sun 16th.

It's a brief spell with the Atlantic soon blowing it away as usual with the GFS showing an active Atlantic after that

It'd be nice to have a few dry and sunny days

GFS Op 0z - The mid-Atlantic LP above moves to the Faeroes and beyond with the Azores high coming in behind, continuing warm and dry weather to Tue 18th. Then a modest breakdown with LP 1010mb moving north from France and a more general breakdown  with LP from Iceland to Sat 22nd 985mb N Scotland, still looking dry in the south though cooler with NW-lies.

ECM - agrees with GFS

AIFS - London, maxima proceeding in stages to 33C Thu 13th, cooler with a little rain Sat 15th, warmer and dry again to 27C Wed 19th. Edinburgh mostly 18-20C but with a a couple of much warmer days Wed/Thu 12/13th to 25C, a little  rain this weekend but rather more Wed 19th

GEFS - England, heat this week in two peaks, that at the beginning of the week not marked in the north, that at the end of the week with mean & ens 8-9C above norm, generally dropping back to norm by Sat 15th even a little below later on, chance of rain from Mon 17th onwards, but still unlikely in the SE. Scotland, also a double hump but quite cool (below norm) between the two peaks, and falling away later as for England. Rain fairly certain form 17th onwards, perhaps a little this week as well.

I'm away for the weekend; reviews should continue but perhaps at different times.

Some big rainfall spikes in fi, but that's where they remain for now.

I think the signal for more unsettled weather after mid-month is starting to gather pace, but we will see...

It certainly looks that way, however it also keeps being pushed back. A few days ago it was very much showing for around the 15th or 16th, today's 0 and 6 have it more like the 19th. As you say, we will see...

Also, let's not forget that it's only 11 days until the start of September, which people of my age grew up thinking of as an autumn month. Therefore, if things do head south, we've had a great ride and have basically lived through a Mediterranean summer in the south of England.

Yes, and after the next week of heat, even Matty will be yearning for some cold rain!

I just hope my lawn grows back.  It looks dead, but I'm told grass cannot die and will always grow back.  My neighbour is still using their sprinkler and its lush and green.   Must look amusing from above if  the water companies are using drones to catch hosepipe cheats

Not a chance. I want the heat and dry weather to continue for as long as possible. Hopefully the rest of this month and hopefully at least all of September - which is really a late summer month now here in the tropical south

 No sign of any rain in the reliable either which is great

I can see your points Matty.  It'll rain when its good and ready. 🙂🙂🙂🙂

Indeed and have also refined our avoidance strategies. More have bought air conditioning it its various guises and my bedroom one has probably had its most use to date including daytime respite! Certainly have a door and window opening and closing strategy off to a tee now.

GFS Op 0z - Agrees with FAX; then both the latter LP and HP fade out to be replaced by ridge from Azores High reaching across Britain to the North Sea and staying in place until Mon 17th, any lower pressure well to the east of the Baltic. The Azores High then retreats and the Baltic LP expands so winds go round to the NW until dropping out Fri 21st, maybe (only maybe) some thundery weather working north from France. Pressure rises over Iceland Mon 24th ensuring more dry weather. 

No sign of any prolonged rainfall or cooler conditions; any such is shown to be over Russia.

ECM - agrees with GFS

AIFS - London, reaching peaks of 30C tomorrow Sun 9th, 33C Thu 13th and 33C again Fri 21st, with interludes around 25C. Maybe a little rain Sat 15th, and then a little Sat 22nd but it remains a case of 'rain tomorrow, never rain today'. Edinburgh, maxima mostly 20C but with a couple of warmer days Wed/Thu 12/13th at 25C (is that hot in a Scottish context?) and dropping to 15C from Fri 21st. Rain Sun 9th and Fri 21st, perhaps a little at other times.

GEFS - England, the double-peaked heat wave remains on course, in the south up to 5C above norm Mon 10th and 10C above norm Thu 14th but not quite as much in the north, mean temps with good ens agreement. The ens agreement breaks up with the mean back close to norm Tue 18th and declining from there (op and control both cooler members so not matching AIFS). Some runs show some rain from Mon 17th but low confidence in the south, better prospects for Liverpool-Newcastle and presumably northwards.

Scotland, the first peak of England's heat wave scarcely touches norm, then cool before about 6C above norm Wed 13th, a short-lived burst of heat, mean temp then promptly back to norm and staying there, good prospects for rain from Mon 17th onwards.

Thanks for including Scotland specifically in your review DEW, especially this morning's! It's easy to forget that there are over five million of us up here

Yes 25 C is hot up here and is the heatwave threshold (one day we are bound to get 3 days at 25 C +)

It would be convenient to do it all in one but Scotland insist on being different!

The cooler, more changeable weather remains in fi.

Amazing isn’t it! At least the next ten days look dry, sunny and hot here

Just getting out and enjoying it, Matty, because it won't last forever.

GFS is much different, quite cool and unsettled from midmonth. Maybe a 37-38 before that though.

That ECMWF is a thing of beauty for more northern latitudes. 

GFS Op 0z - follows on from FAX with the slack pressure being taken over by a ridge from the Azores aimed mostly at Scotland to Fri 21st - during this time some small LPs affect SE England from France, normally I'd expect thundery weather from these but this year since Europe has been so dry, they may lack the moisture to be active. A small Atlantic LP then breaks the blockade, reaching C England 1005mb Sun 23rd importing some cooler air briefly though the Azores HP is back from the SW with W-lies two days later. On the 25th watch out for an ex-hurricane moving out from the States which could stir things up.

ECM - generally like GFS though the LPs from France are less well defined, and in the final chart Tue 18th a trough is working SE-wards from Greenland so pressure is lower over Scotland.

AIFS - London, maxima reaching a peak of 33C Fri 14th, then rather different from yesterday with maxima down to low 20s through to Sun 23rd, with some rain especially on Thu 20th. Edinburgh, maxima rising to peak of 25C Thu 13th, then also cooler - at 15-18C to the 23rd. A little rain from time to time though dry later in the coming week. A test for this model against GFS in a week's time.

GEFS - England, warm now, but focus is on giant peak of 10C above norm Fri 14th (but 7C in north). Mean and ens then back down to norm by Mon 17th, staying there though ens support steadily breaks up (more ens members are cool, but those that are warm are very warm). Chances of rain slight, appearing in only a few ens members from the 17th and those more evident in the north,

Scotland, after a cool dip, the peak is there Thu 13th (about 6C above norm) but quickly down to norm with mean and ens members agreeing on this to 23rd, better agreement than in England. Higher chances of rain than further south, and earlier, from 15th, but still not certain; plus a little rain in the next day or two

Our warmer spell (Tue-Thurs) is followed by mostly westerly or north-westerly (even northerly) flows for the rest of August looking at the big three 00z's

Low pressure systems becoming more active to give Scotland it's typical August! It's wet here already and I feel like I've had a year without a summer. That's probably all the reports on here and the media from further south. My scottish friends take it all in their stride