The GFS, as with heatwave 4, has been very bullish about another spell of mid 30s next week down here. For five runs in a row now it's shown low to mid 30s next Wednesday, and this morning is no exception. Here, for example, from Saturday onwards, the highs are 28, 32, 28, 26, 33, 36 - bear in mind 32 is exceptional here, or at least was until this summer! Even in 76 there were only 4 days in the 30s, and only one hit 31. As ever it's the lack of sea breeze which leads to those higher values being forecast here. The MetO raw is, as usual, much less keen (26, 28, 27, 26, 28) but I don't put too much faith in that given its poor performance this summer... it's regularly had a series of ninja-uppings as we've got closer to the day in question.

Another thing worthy of mention is just how dry the air is at times, reflecting that massive "heat dome" which has afflicted our region for months now. The GFS op has 28/-3 at Heathrow at 6PM on Saturday, for example, which is just 12.5% RH... more like you'd get on an aeroplane, or in a desert. The MetO raw has 23% on Saturday and several hours of 22% on Sunday for Heathrow.

The low humidity is important as it has several effects. A positive one is that it mitigates the heat somewhat if you get a breeze as it feels much fresher than normal (albeit you'll still feel it in the sun, in an area sheltered from the wind). The downside is that it'll dessicate things even more - trees etc will have to work harder, drawing even more on what scant reserves of water remains, and it'll make things even more flammable. I've called it desertification before and it's exactly what it is: at least we know in winter things will moisten up again, but for now it really is desert-like.

I suspect this coming heatwave will bring a flurry of 32s, perhaps a 34 or 35 or two, and it'll effortlessly add a further tally to our 30-degree count.

“Outlook for Saturday to Monday

A dry start to the weekend, with sunny spells the odd shower by Sunday. Turning warm on Saturday, but temperatures will slowly decrease into next week.

Updated at 4am today”

Yes, not for the first time the automated forecasts don't match the written ones - here it says,

"Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Largely dry with sunny spells on Saturday and Sunday. In the sunshine it will be feeling increasingly warmer, becoming cloudy on Monday but remaining dry."

The automated, of course, shows full sunshine from dawn to dusk on Monday! In fact it shows completely clear skies, both day and night, from Saturday all the way out to Wednesday, which is as far as it goes...

OK Brian. I think this one will be quite a dramatic one. There's lots of posts on it already. It was seeing the GFS which made me go for heatwave No6. 🙂🙂🙂

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_meteogram?base_time=202608060000&epsgram=classical_15d&lat=51.4673&lon=-0.4529&station_name=Heathrow 

One warm day on Sunday, too.

The 850 charts (plumes using the link above) show a 2-day hot push, contrast that with the 6z GFS which ups the chances (compared to the 0z) of a 4-day hot push:

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/52/4780/graphe_ens3rjp3.php.png 

My money's on the G(E)FS being closer to the mark, but we'll see...

It's interesting that you feel it's overshooting temperatures - I've felt it's often been a degree or two under. I've been taking a halfway point between the GFS and UKV and that seems to have been fairly accurate. 

Tricky when winter seems to last about five weeks now, whereas summer seems to last five months. 🙂

Still looking like at least 5 30C days on the cards next week which I think will take us to 39 for the year? At least according to GFS. UKV is less keen. GFS 6Z also delays the peak heat to Thursday with 36-37C. But I have lost count of the number of phantom 36-37s we have seen on the GFS this summer!

Why wouldn't they have? Anyway again up to 24C down here today.

It would be lovely to get another 35C just to the 4 in a row. 

I am in Manila for work at the moment and it’s rained everyday. I forgot what rain was like. I showed my team the grass currently in the UK and they were shocked lol.

As I mentioned they did seem to leave off Thorney Island once or twice so I wondered if it had a question mark too. They seem to have discounted Gosport Fleetlands as well. But it seems to be all OK which is good.

Anyway with 25.2C there yesterday, that makes today the 39th consecutive day that 25C has been reached somewhere in the UK. Tomorrow will be the 40th, which equals what I think is the longest ever such run, in 1995. Looking at the forecast we will easily break it. (If it wasn't for the annoying 24.9C on June 29th, we would already be on  53 days!)

Manila in August. I remember it well. Thick traffic fumed heat. Thunderstorms and biblical rain that you think will clear out the streams of their rubbish but in fact makes little difference. Quezon City - SM City North EDSA and the others air-conditioned, which is why they are popular escapes.

They having Typhoon at the moment with lot of rains.  The rain made more mess than dryness.  Warm today after a chilly 8.6C to now 27.9C the max now 27.3C. The conservatory was 16.7C to 39.3C.  Both have durinal range today.

I’ve never seen the grass so brown or the trees leaves withered like this.

Hmm. 1998: summer after an el Nino. 2007: summer after El Niño. 2016: summer after El Niño. 1988, 2024…

With the notable exception of 1983 I’d say summers after el ninos have been generally shite.