The Weather Outlook

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NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
04 August 2026 10:20:43

I used to organise regular local footpath walks, at that time in Kent, with a sketch map of the route. The map for that summer was titled 'Baked Fields and Pastures Brown'.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

A great title. At school we sometimes had 'Worms on Concrete'. Spaghetti Bolognese on toast. Dried like pastures brown.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Rob K
04 August 2026 10:45:44

1995 might just hang in there as the king of the heatwave years then.

That was an incredible summer, one I’ll never forget. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Today looks nailed on to reach 30C again (already some rounded 30s in the east) which would then equal the record. And I would be utterly astonished if we then failed to reach 30C again this year. I am fairly sure we will get to 40 days of 30C+ before the year is out.

I'll update my list from the Daily Weather Summaries once July and August are published (seems to be at the beginning of the month "n+2", as they have just released the June ones).


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Bertwhistle
04 August 2026 11:22:38
Above 27°C here, unexpectedly (we should have had the cold front past us by now).

GFS 6z offering a week-long heatwave starting Saturday, with a 37°C peak in NW Kent.

Edit: GFS has finished - a one or two day cool off then a further heatwave sets up until the end of the run.

Just noting it- await the ENS for greater interest.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

saxtemp
04 August 2026 11:22:44

Today looks nailed on to reach 30C again (already some rounded 30s in the east) which would then equal the record. And I would be utterly astonished if we then failed to reach 30C again this year. I am fairly sure we will get to 40 days of 30C+ before the year is out.

I'll update my list from the Daily Weather Summaries once July and August are published (seems to be at the beginning of the month "n+2", as they have just released the June ones).

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

30.5c at Heathrow

Ally Pally Snowman
04 August 2026 12:41:19

30.5c at Heathrow

Originally Posted by: saxtemp 

Yep we equal 1995 , 34th 30c.

Feels very humid here today.

Plenty of 31s 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
04 August 2026 12:47:54
I've updated my spreadsheet with the values from the Met Office daily summaries for the whole year up to the end of June (actually a good use case for AI, feeding it the PDFs to extract the relevant values, saved a lot of time!)

Quite a few corrections where some high values on Starling's Roost have been discounted, and also several manual stations that were higher than what I had (Faversham/Brogdale has featured a few times, so it is still reporting).

I still only make it 19 32C+ days though (including yesterday), and 33 30C+ days (including today). So the Met must be counting an extra one of each, presumably from a manual station in July. All will become clear in a month's time I guess!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

White Meadows
04 August 2026 13:12:23

I think we should overtake 1995 soon. Heatwave 6 looks on track.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Heatwave 5 is mid August, no? So no.6 would need to come later on.

Ally Pally Snowman
04 August 2026 13:42:17

Heatwave 5 is mid August, no? So no.6 would need to come later on.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Technically what we have now is heatwave 5 and next week 6.

Not that it really matters as this summer the heatwaves have just blended together 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Bertwhistle
04 August 2026 13:45:19

Heatwave 5 is mid August, no? So no.6 would need to come later on.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

It varies place to place, actually. For us, today just marks the end of number 4, so yes, we await 5 (not necessarily happily). 1 in May, a longer one in June and 1 in July, then one that ends today according to the Hampshire 3 day 27° rule. This one doesn't really feel like one. But the July one ran from 5th to 17th, and had 3 days just over 27°. Had the later 2 of those been .4 of a degree cooler, we would have had 2 heatwaves during that period instead of one protracted one. There must be places locally with lower maxima.

Also, some places have had short bursts of heat outside of our 'heatwaves' here that might have met the criteria, including places that only need to manage 26 for 3 days.

So some people will almost certainly be heading towards #6.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
04 August 2026 13:47:17
I’m 

Technically what we have now is heatwave 5 and next week 6.

Not that it really matters as this summer the heatwaves have just blended together 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

I’d call it a regime. We’ve been under a heatwave regime (or a “warm settled regime”) since mid June. Within that there have been a number of individual heatwave events. 

I wouldn’t include late May in the same regime because there were two weeks of proper unsettled mobile weather between it and the June heatwave. But perhaps it sits within the 2026 warm weather “superstructure”.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
The Beast from the East
04 August 2026 13:53:13

The humidity was much lower back then (as it was in 76), SSTs were lower too. It's a bit chicken-and-egg, but high SSTs mean higher dewpoints, warmer nights and thus more moisture in the air. We've seen multiple days with widespread 20+ dewpoints this summer and that would have been unfathomable even 20 years ago... now it doesn't even get commented on.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Indeed, the nights this summer have been unbearable.  Something I dont remember in 1995 or even 2006. 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Rob K
04 August 2026 13:59:38

It was an incredible summer, not just weatherwise for me personally. Just finished school and getting ready to go to Uni.  A very exciting time. 

But I dont remember that Summer feeling as unpleasantly hot as the current one.  I'm still living in the same house with the same problems with poor insulation and heat trapping.  This year is far worse.  I've never sweated so much indoors!

Maybe because I'm just older and fatter!

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Yes I was 18 in that summer too – although I had already finished my first year at uni as I started at 17. It was a cracker, although I was out of the country for most of July (in Africa, so still hot!)


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Bertwhistle
04 August 2026 14:42:57

It was an incredible summer, not just weatherwise for me personally. Just finished school and getting ready to go to Uni.  A very exciting time. 

But I dont remember that Summer feeling as unpleasantly hot as the current one.  I'm still living in the same house with the same problems with poor insulation and heat trapping.  This year is far worse.  I've never sweated so much indoors!

Maybe because I'm just older and fatter!

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

It was a fantastic summer overall, with an 18+ July CET and a 19+ August CET. I was fortunate to have summer holidays in a school career for the best part.

But June, other than the last week, was nothing to write home about.

In Southampton, the mean maximum for August was above 27°C. There was near-constant heat from late July to 23rd August, and more 30+ days in July as well as a couple at the end of June.

The late July-early August period was very humid in the Winchester area at least. We had tropical nights, and a fan and all windows open all night. Some of the tarmac roads in the Twyford area were patches of liquid in places.

This year's ruining humidity was in that late June heatwave. I remember seeing wbt forecasts of up to 30°C and it felt it. Had to stand in water up to the neck to get cool, even with a breeze. Other heatwaves this year have mostly avoided such humidity.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Rob K
04 August 2026 15:14:15
32.3C reached at Writtle so chalk up another 32C, that's 21 now if the Met are to be believed (20 by my count).

For those keeping tabs, it's also the 40th day of summer (since June 1, i.e. 65 days so far) that has been hotter than the corresponding date in 1976.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
04 August 2026 19:21:13
Summer is over post: 

The swifts have now left London skies for another year. One of the early signs of the changing season. 

First is the falling quiet of the dawn chorus, in mid July. Then the swifts go. Then the football season starts, back to school clothes and stationery fill the shops, and before you know it it’s strangely dark after dinner. 

I was told today that Halloween outfits have just appeared in one of the local supermarkets. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl

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