You’re right. Hopefully that leads into 7

GFS Op 0z - keeps the ridge of HP from FAX but has only two Atlantic LPs, those near Iceland (replacing the one for Scotland) and Newfoundland. From Mon 10th through to Wed 19th the ridge settles as a large area of HP over Britain, if anything closer to the west while the east coast is occasionally affected by LP in the North Sea (e.g. Fri 14th). No sign of  any break in the drought in the south while north likely to become dry as well.

ECM to T +240  - as GFS though the HP is more likely to be near the east coast

AIFS - London, maxima dropping from today 29C to 22C on Thu 6th, back up to 32C Wed 12th then another dip and rise, No rain. Edinburgh, maxima top teens C, a couple of warmer days Wed/Thu 19th/20th to 22C, heavy rain in the next couple of days, a little more at each of the next two weekends.

GEFS - England, mean temp dropping from today's peak to norm and staying there to Wed 19th, though op is hot (10C above) Thu 13th while control is cold (7C below) on the same date (Op & Control swap places a week later!). Almost no chance of rain in the S, some from the Midlands northwards after Wed 12th and in the NW earlier still. Scotland, similar temp profile but less extreme outliers; heavy rain for the next three days, some rain on most days after that.

Probably inevitable timing in Scotland to coincide with the schools going back.

Indeed, a couple of 36s in the mix. And zero rain across most of the south right out to mid month.

Main models now aligning for more potential extreme heat into mid August. 

You've had 3 months to get your synoptics sorted out so no point complaining now! : )

For England & Wales maybe? Looks like the heat might just reach the Border regions again before it's all swept away on a cool NW wind 🤔

GFS OP 0z - keeps the second of the above LPs well out on the Atlantic, pumping up more heat from the south aided by HP which develops over the N Sea 1025mb Wed 12th. By Sat 15th this LP has moved up to Iceland and ushers in a week with low pressure north of Scotland and high pressure ridging from the Azores, warm-ish westerlies, little sign of the drought breaking for England.

ECM to T +240 - like GFS to Wed 12th but the LP then moves closer to Ireland and Scotland so bringing air from the SW which is less hot than the direct S-lies, but still dry for the south. 

AIFS - London, after a slight dip, maxima building to 32C Fri 14th, dry, then dropping to 20C Tue 18th with rain. Edinburgh, maxima 15-17C with a few warmer days to 23C around Fri 14th. Rain for the next two days,  a few dry days, then building again from Wed 12th.

GEFS - in the south, mean temp below norm Thu 6th, then near norm with a couple of mini peaks Sun 9th and  Fri 14th, little chance of rain until Sat 15th, and unlikely even then. In the north, similar temp profile though the peak Sun 9th scarcely rises above norm, and rain in small amounts on most days (heavier in the west).

Its like a different world up there, beyond the wall.  Like Westeros in Game of Thrones! LOL

Here in SE England, we seem to have our own micro climate, separated from the rest of the UK,  like we are now part of continental Europe

Yeah I think The Midlands, S. Wales and Southern England have a new climate, you've definitely gone all continental. 'The North' is still temperate (for now)

Even 30 years ago one of the predictions of AGW was that the south of the UK would get a "Mediterranean" climate. This years warm wet winter and hot dry summer is the text book definition from O Level Geography as I recall

Indeed.

Here's an article from The Independent 30 years ago about Bill Giles and his olive trees. Maybe he was a bit out with his calculations but not bad for a long range forecast.

"Bring on the olives and bananas?

Weatherman Bill Giles believes that global warming will give us a Mediterranean climate within 20 years."

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/bring-on-the-olives-and-bananas-1310987.html 

Not sure about continental- more south west France or N Spain. The wet winter (and early June) suggest this.

Prescient.

It's a fascinating article - almost mocking in tone with a bit of derision thrown in for good measure. 

It shows just how much our climate, especially the South of the UK, has shifted in 30 years. Olives are very happy, Cannas don't need to be lifted over winter and we aren't far from Lemon trees over wintering outdoors in London. Certainly some of the hardier citrus trees now manage it.

I'd imagine that in about 20 years time Mandarins, pomegranates and the like will be a feature of many Urban gardens in the South.

How you mean cooler?  What i read in other thread it going to be build of HP and move east that give us heatwave 6.  App show 28C next week which mean low 30s here like yesterrday.

This year has been the textbook definition of a csb climate down here - as a reminder, that's the driest summer month with <40mm of rain, or 1/3rd the wettest winter month, with the hottest month having a mean of 22C or less. I've seen predictions of warming for later this century introducing areas of csb in the south (and losing the ET in the north), but that wasn't expected until 2050 or so...

Everything seems to have become speeded-up, so to speak, like things are moving in fast-forward!

(And the models continue to show negligible amounts of rain for the next fortnight down here. I've said before I feel we're stuck with this until something upstream, like an Atlantic hurricane, jolts the pattern eastwards... not much sign of that down here at the moment.)