The Weather Outlook

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Ally Pally Snowman
27 July 2026 15:25:56

Here are the 2m mean temperatures from yesterday's 12Z. They're usually only a little different (which is why I don't currently include them) to the 2m max / 2m min values. There was clearly something wrong in the pipeline 32C was being shown.

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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

All the more crazy that the BBC actually used it on a forecast. Inept isn't the word


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
27 July 2026 18:12:22
Looks like we hit 28C at Heathrow today. Tomorrow could well hit 30C, although GFS is some 3C higher than the high-res models, going for 32C. Wednesday is a surefire 30, but Thursday now looks less likely as the plume gets shunted east more rapidly. And Friday could well end up being the coolest day of the whole month at this rate, barely making 25C.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Jiries
27 July 2026 18:14:47

All the more crazy that the BBC actually used it on a forecast. Inept isn't the word

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Same with apps also very poor this summer.  Got to 27.5c today which i predicted 28C today so just got it there.  App was going for 23c which is far off the mark.  Expecting tomorrow to be 30c and 33-35c on Wed while London a bit higher.  12z ensembles for here show 15c and some members go up to 18C with dry ground boost higher maxes.  

Matty H
27 July 2026 18:46:53

Same with apps also very poor this summer.  Got to 27.5c today which i predicted 28C today so just got it there.  App was going for 23c which is far off the mark.  Expecting tomorrow to be 30c and 33-35c on Wed while London a bit higher.  12z ensembles for here show 15c and some members go up to 18C with dry ground boost higher maxes.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

I’m not sure why you would go off any apps for a forecast knowing they are purely the current raw data from one model run?

Said it the other day - blink and you’ll miss it blast of heat. Still looking like around 27c for here Wednesday as a top temp

I say “here”. I’m currently in Derby. One night, fortunately….

looks like a cooler and slightly more unsettled spell next week at the moment 


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
27 July 2026 20:58:00

Looks like we hit 28C at Heathrow today. Tomorrow could well hit 30C, although GFS is some 3C higher than the high-res models, going for 32C. Wednesday is a surefire 30, but Thursday now looks less likely as the plume gets shunted east more rapidly. And Friday could well end up being the coolest day of the whole month at this rate, barely making 25C.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

This isn’t a summer is over post I promise, but July does seem to be ending with more of a whimper than a bang.

I was very confident mid-month that this would be the hottest month on record and comfortably over 20C, but the last few days of the month have tailed off just enough.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Jiries
27 July 2026 22:03:31

This isn’t a summer is over post I promise, but July does seem to be ending with more of a whimper than a bang.

I was very confident mid-month that this would be the hottest month on record and comfortably over 20C, but the last few days of the month have tailed off just enough.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

This coming heatwave 4 this week should help to get to 20C ?   

Rob K
27 July 2026 22:22:41

This coming heatwave 4 this week should help to get to 20C ?   

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

The “heatwave” is only really one day, perhaps two. And the highest temperatures confined to the southeast which won’t really help the CET much. 

Considering what was modelled a few days ago the relatively cool conditions this week are disappointing from a record point of view. It looks like we might not even manage a full month hitting 26C every day. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

The Beast from the East
28 July 2026 01:22:09

The “heatwave” is only really one day It looks like we might not even manage a full month hitting 26C every day. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

If you had said this to my 20 year old self 30 years ago, I would be astonished! In the 90s,  25c was considered "hot"

Obviously for heat lovers, the latest heatwave has gone pete tong, but you have been spoilt this season.  Looking through the ensembles, further heat cannot be ruled out for August, though it does look as if we will finally get some  rain down here at last, much needed for the gardens


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Jiries
28 July 2026 06:34:17

If you had said this to my 20 year old self 30 years ago, I would be astonished! In the 90s,  25c was considered "hot"

Obviously for heat lovers, the latest heatwave has gone pete tong, but you have been spoilt this season.  Looking through the ensembles, further heat cannot be ruled out for August, though it does look as if we will finally get some  rain down here at last, much needed for the gardens

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Yes I am not pleased how the posters in other forum treated badly this week 4th heatwave, I mean London have a chance to get 35C or over tomorrow but many not interested and protesting against it.  25C was a benchmark on the old BBC forecast maps and grateful to see this, even today should be grateful anything above red 25c but many have so high expectation now for over 38c or more, anything less they walk away.  I think the recent charts showing 44-45C made them lost interest with this heatwave and I seen the 00z show possible 5th heatwave shortly after this by increasing members again.   This week heatwave is 2 days over 30C which is my threshold and for London should be 32c since their average is now 24-25C not 22c which old threshold should be 30C before.  

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
28 July 2026 07:38:00

Yes I am not pleased how the posters in other forum treated badly this week 4th heatwave, I mean London have a chance to get 35C or over tomorrow but many not interested and protesting against it.  25C was a benchmark on the old BBC forecast maps and grateful to see this, even today should be grateful anything above red 25c but many have so high expectation now for over 38c or more, anything less they walk away.  I think the recent charts showing 44-45C made them lost interest with this heatwave and I seen the 00z show possible 5th heatwave shortly after this by increasing members again.   This week heatwave is 2 days over 30C which is my threshold and for London should be 32c since their average is now 24-25C not 22c which old threshold should be 30C before.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

I think by common terminology this week is what we call a “mini heatwave”. 3 fine days and a (not) thunderstorm.

The good thing about the downgrade is it’s had an effect on the intensity here in France too. Probably 34-35C today, maybe a 39 or 40 a couple of times this week but not the days on end of early 40s that were showing up on some models until a few days ago. 

Mid 30s peaking at 40 is tolerable, just about. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
bledur
28 July 2026 12:47:27

I think by common terminology this week is what we call a “mini heatwave”. 3 fine days and a (not) thunderstorm.

The good thing about the downgrade is it’s had an effect on the intensity here in France too. Probably 34-35C today, maybe a 39 or 40 a couple of times this week but not the days on end of early 40s that were showing up on some models until a few days ago. 

Mid 30s peaking at 40 is tolerable, just about. 

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Actually years ago,it would have just been a couple of hot days but Heatwave is a big buzz word it seems with the forecasters trying to stretch the criteria so it can be a Heatwave

35-40 is not really tolerable for a lot of people and coupled with drought conditions is pretty unpleasant.

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
28 July 2026 13:10:18

Actually years ago,it would have just been a couple of hot days but Heatwave is a big buzz word it seems with the forecasters trying to stretch the criteria so it can be a Heatwave

35-40 is not really tolerable for a lot of people and coupled with drought conditions is pretty unpleasant.

Originally Posted by: bledur 

Can you see an end to this long dry? If so, what will be your criteria? Earlier, there was some almost AC above, once the harbinger of a weather change...


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Hungry Tiger
28 July 2026 13:33:28
It's 28C outside now. Hardly chilly. Cloudy as well. It hasn't prevented the temperature from getting to what to all intents and purposes a hot day. 🙂🙂🙂🙂
Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Rob K
28 July 2026 14:26:20
30th 30ºC day of the year. Amazing.

(For the UK as a whole, not here!)


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

tierradelfuego
28 July 2026 18:06:11

30th 30ºC day of the year. Amazing.

(For the UK as a whole, not here!)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

20th day here above 30c, 11 being the highest in the last 15 years so obviously missing some notable previous years, but still...


Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

bledur
28 July 2026 18:23:51

Can you see an end to this long dry? If so, what will be your criteria? Earlier, there was some almost AC above, once the harbinger of a weather change...

Originally Posted by: NMA 

Not seen a sign yet but i have never known a forecast actually predict a lasting change in the weather . When it broke last year there was no mention of that being the end of the dry spell,. Likewise this year no forecast predicted the first dry spell as being the forerunner to a long dry spell. So it is coming but no one knows when.

fairweather
28 July 2026 18:54:02
Back over 30C today. 34C predicted for tomorrow. The Spring/Summer heatwave continues unabated. Mind, people abroad watching the Commonwealth Games will be questioning our judgement as there is a long spell of torrential rain in Glasgow like we haven't seen in years in the South.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
28 July 2026 18:58:49
Back over 30C today. 34C predicted for tomorrow. The Spring/Summer heatwave continues unabated. Mind, people abroad watching the Commonwealth Games will be questioning our judgement as there is a long spell of torrential rain in Glasgow like we haven't seen in years in the South.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Rob K
28 July 2026 19:10:43
Looks like 31.0C was the high, at Coningsby.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Jiries
28 July 2026 19:16:26

Not seen a sign yet but i have never known a forecast actually predict a lasting change in the weather . When it broke last year there was no mention of that being the end of the dry spell,. Likewise this year no forecast predicted the first dry spell as being the forerunner to a long dry spell. So it is coming but no one knows when.

Originally Posted by: bledur 

Some heat hater or summer hater from other forum user with 123 kept giving false posts and misreading about predictions for a big change that not happening for weeks now.  Hot today and tomorrow will be very hot and sunny before cool

down to mid 20s. 

Ally Pally Snowman
28 July 2026 20:19:58
AIFS and ECM both look keen on building in the Azores HP strongly from about day 9 ish. Talk of the death of Summer 26 may be exaggerated. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Crepuscular Ray
28 July 2026 20:55:01

Back over 30C today. 34C predicted for tomorrow. The Spring/Summer heatwave continues unabated. Mind, people abroad watching the Commonwealth Games will be questioning our judgement as there is a long spell of torrential rain in Glasgow like we haven't seen in years in the South.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

I keep telling you, we don't do heatwaves up here 😂


Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

johncs2016
28 July 2026 22:18:30

I keep telling you, we don't do heatwaves up here 😂

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 

… and added to that is the fact that it’s usually always PI@&*NG doon wi’ rain in Glesgae anyway!!😂🤣😁


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Retron
29 July 2026 03:46:33
So after something like 8 days of the GFS showing mid 30s here for today - remarkably consistent - it's settled on 33C as today's high, down a tad in the last day. The MetO raw, meanwhile, has gone from 25 a week ago for today to 34 in this morning's forecast, a last minute upgrade from the 33 it was showing yesterday. This is the third or fourth time this has happened this summer and is a flaw in the model IMO - we see much the same in winter with wind gusts, the MetO always starts off low (and the GFS high), then the GFS usually climbs down a little and the MetO ramps them up day after day as the day draws closer. 

Given the dessication outside it's going to feel scorching today and I'm not looking forward to it at all. At least it cools down to "just" 28C or 29C tomorrow, then it goes back to normal temperature wise... just with no rain whatsoever. 


Leysdown, north Kent
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
29 July 2026 08:26:36
I’m in central France watching both the weather here and in Britain, and it’s a classic plume day in both places. Heat galloping away extremely early in the morning. 

Yesterday got to 35C here but it built at a stately pace over the afternoon. Today is likely 38-39C and it was already 31C at 10am. I can see that my vineyard has reached 27C already [EDIT: 28C at 9.30!] so it’s happening in Kent too. 

EDIT again: 29C at 9.35…

My weather station does tend to peak early as the slope is East facing, but this is extremely unusual. That’s near 2C hotter than I got all yesterday. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl

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