You said that two weeks ago as well, yet here we are 

Temporarily maybe; curtain call? No chance. Tove Janssen said the same thing this time last year and there was a lot of guff about 'front loaded summer' and then it all went quiet when August ended up almost a degree warmer than June.

Not necessarily the same though this year.. When I see a sign I will make a prediction when it will change more long term,No sign yet.

True- although it has been a remarkably similar year to 2025 thus far in a number of ways.

What is the same though is the message- with 5 whole weeks until the end of met summer, to be confident that that's it for this year and be correct, should earn a top position at the MetO or similar, as noone else could do it at that range.

Take the 4th August as an example, IMBY of Reading.

850hpa reasonably solid bar a few outliers, many Ps showing some rain, yet the Op is some 5-7c below the rest of the ensemble for the 2m temp.

Obviously could be true but seems to be a theme that hasn't been the reality.

Your words, not mine.

We have August and even early September for futher summer weather potentially.

Looking at this mornings main runs for the next 10 days, Low pressure looks like taking up residence with wet and windy weather at times

next week possible for another pulse, not long lasting  though. 

https://modeles3.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf2/run/ecmwf-1-156.png?0 

The regional differences in summer months have really struck me since planting a vineyard right in the far South East of the country. 

Almost invariably, East Kent fares relatively better than central or western England in August and September, whereas the pattern is reversed in early summer. August almost always seems to see a return of more zonal winds, with the warmest and sunniest weather in the East. 

Also true of entire seasons. During hot UK summers when the whole wine industry does well, Kent is often not that impressive. In more mixed or unsettled summers it’s almost always one of the best performing regions, along with Essex. Last year I actually had a lower degree day count than 2023.

As far as I can remember, that 30+°C which you are referring to was probably recorded at Swanston and/or possibly within your own PWS if you have one (since you have a garden, I would imagine that you would have your own weather station in there).

As for the other local stations in Edinburgh such as Gogarbank, I have looked back at my August 2025 Statistics post which I posted on its own thread on 1 September 2025. According to that, the highest maximum temperature at Gogarbank in August 2025 was 28.73°C on 13 August 2025 which ended up being last year’s hottest day.

This means that there was no 30+°C maximum at Gogarbank last year and I don’t recall there being any 30+°C maximums being recorded last year at the airport or the botanic gardens either last year.

If you regard Gogarbank as being the main official station for Edinburgh, this means that there has officially not been a 30+°C maximum in Edinburgh since 2022.

It was Swanston, John, which being a bit more inland obviously caught a waft of hotter air from the south. I've seen it happen before, in fact Charterhall recorded 32 C on that day last year, 13 August

next week looking hot again in the south, but then it seems the proper pattern change will kick in and perhaps an early autumn cannot be ruled out.  We do need the rain here though, 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t24393-Breakout-thread/page13 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/hovmoller-charts 

Am I reading this correctly?

High pressure to the east weaking a bit over the weekend and then a fairly decent positive pressure anomaly once again to the east, but perhaps slightly more westerly extended?

Yes, I think that's a good summary. However, remember that it shows the GFS mean for 40–60°N, not just the UK. I did some research into this, and 40–60°N is probably the sweet spot. The other important point is the tilt of the streaks: a greater tilt implies a more progressive pattern.

Looks like a blend in the end - a couple of 31c reached today.

In contrast to that , up here the t850hPa ensemble mean dips below the long term average tomorrow and stays there for the rest of the run.

https://modeles3.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf2/runs/2026072812/ecmwf-0-300.png?12