All 2mm here lol

It's all we get these days down here.

Glancing blow from the 28C T850 isotherm delivers widespread 41C with some 42s. 

‘Stand out’ in the sense that it’s becoming quite scary how fast our climate is changing, and not for the better.

It’s worth putting the values back into Fahrenheit to grasp what’s happening: that’s highs nearing 110f.  Not so many decades ago a high in the mid-80s would have been noteworthy.

Although that's now two runs in a row from GFS with a cooler (if not very cool) start to August.

Little bit like a week ago next week was supposed to be cooler. I am looking only 7 days ahead at the moment be cause as Darren has said, this looks primed for heat

I'm not getting too excited; P19 and one other run are up at that level, but the mean is only a couple of degrees above norm on that date, and 25 of the 30 perturbations are no more than a degree or two above that, and indeed, mostly below the mean to counterweight the hot outliers.

Not much to suggest as such in the models presently, just average conditions and mostly dry. It’s a case of keep checking for which model sniffs it out first. 

GFS Op 0z - continues from FAX with the pressure remaining fairly high over Britain in a rather chaotic way, the south always at risk of importing heat from the continent; interventions from continental trough Wed 29th with S-lies, from 1005mb Faeroes Sat 1st with NW-lies, from LPs off Ireland 1000mb Tue 4th and 995mb Sat 8th with more S-lies, the latter looking hot. 

ECM to T+240 - like GFS until the last chart Sat 1st when there is a second LP 1005mb off SW Ireland , taking precedence and bringing warm/hot SE-lies rather than NW-lies.

All a bit of a muddle - but take a look for yourself! https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

AIFS - London maxima mostly 25-27C even 29C Wed 29th,  cooler with a little rain Sun 26th, definitely cooler with more rain Mon 3rd and Thu 6th. Edinburgh, mostly 17-18C with isolated warmer days (today, Tue 28th, Wed 5th), splashes of rain in the next few days then definitely wet Sun/Mon 2nd/3rd

GEFS - Mean temp near norm to Sat 8th (3 or 4 degrees above in the south w/b Mon 27th, control run a determined hot outlier there, less so in the north). A little rain for the south Sun 26th and then slight chances after Sat 1st, greater amounts an more frequent the further north you go with e.g. Glasgow likely to have some rain every day after 26th.                 

It's the summer that keeps giving. Fourth consecutive month with a 35C? You would be daft to bet against it.

45C the consequence of the 28C T850hpa plume on the 6Z GFS this morning. 

I've added a static link for anyone who misses this because it will refresh, see

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/signal#rep642 

I've added a static link for anyone who misses this because it will refresh, see

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/signal#rep642 

18 C for me on that chart 🤣

Obviously P10 is way higher than the second warmest P and very unlikely, but GEFS doesn't offer a RH/wet bulb/ dewpoint option and I wondered if that modelled chart comes elsewhere with any of those (particularly wbt).

GEFS 12Z Thu 23 JUL 2026 - London

% of members with Max temperatures C ≥ 35

theweatheroutlook.com GEFS data tables

Can’t see this will happen with well over 20C between S to N zones so if 45C to reach i think Scotland and Ireland should get a 40C mark.  

GFS Op 0z - differs from Fax in that HP from the SW does revive Mon 27th but this model then does pick up that mid-Atlantic LP and moves it to a position SW of Ireland Thu 30th, drawing up warm/hot, maybe thundery, southerlies. This LP moves slowly up the west coast to Tue 4th, close enough for cooler maritime air in the NW but the SE still under the influence of continental heat. For the rest of that week the LP changes direction and moves east across Scotland with W/NW wind and cooler for all, though not close enough to guarantee significant rain to the SE.

ECM to T +240 - maintains the HP for longer after 27th than does the GFS but then copies GFS producing LP off the west coast by Sun 2nd.

AIFS - London, 25-28C and dry to Sat 1st, then around 20C to Fri 7th with several periods of what passes for heavy rain these days. Edinburgh, 17-20C to Sat 1st, then around 15C; rain Wed 29th, Mon 3rd and Fri 7th with splashes at other times.

GEFS - in England, mean temp shows a heat wave Tue 28th - Sat 1st up to 7C above norm, before dropping back to norm through to Sun 9th; though op and control go mad and extend the heat wave to Mon 3rd with temps 15C above norm at that date* in the SE, half of that value in the north of England. Small chances of rain after Mon 3rd in the far south, more likely in the north of England. In Scotland, mean temp close to norm throughout, though op and control are also warm/hot outliers Fri 31st - Mon 3rd (and then go quite cold at end of run). Some rain in the coming week, but persistent and often heavy from Sat 1st. 

A contest between the models as to which can correctly forecast the competing influences of the Atlantic and the Continent

* 25C as a day-night average!