The Weather Outlook

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picturesareme
15 July 2026 12:16:00
Hit 30C again!!!! Not long t.
Bertwhistle
15 July 2026 12:26:22
Highest I can see is 28.3°C at Porthmadog automatic

A couple of stations give '28' but no decimal place.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Bertwhistle
15 July 2026 12:36:13
Like the last 2 days, I doubt we'll get 30 here, but we haven't maxed below 27 from 5th onwards, and it looks like today will be the 11th consecutive day of our local heatwave.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Rob K
15 July 2026 13:13:25

Looks like the cloud has broken up much quicker today. It's clear blue skies here now. 30c should be less of a struggle than recent days.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

29.2 at Hurn at 2pm, should be able to hit 30.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

doctormog
15 July 2026 13:22:48
It’s toasty here in Catania (Siciliy) today but not totally unpleasant despite the 41°C. I wouldn’t fancy working in these temperatures though.

The heat from the south is quite impressive.


Rob K
15 July 2026 14:20:43
30.4C at Hurn at 3pm, that's 11 30C days in a row. We might be able to squeeze two or possibly three more out of this spell.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

BYF1
  • BYF1
  • Advanced Member
15 July 2026 14:52:05
What is the record for consecutive 30c days somewhere in UK? I know it's documented that Heathrow had 16 consecutive days of 30c in 1976 but that's a single station (so even more notable), but what about consecutive days at any UK weather station? I guess it would be more than 16 if a single station achieved it.
North downs, near Folkestone, 177m asl.
Saint Snow
15 July 2026 15:22:58

What is the record for consecutive 30c days somewhere in UK? I know it's documented that Heathrow had 16 consecutive days of 30c in 1976 but that's a single station (so even more notable), but what about consecutive days at any UK weather station? I guess it would be more than 16 if a single station achieved it.

Originally Posted by: BYF1 

Think it's 14, set in July 2006


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Quantum
15 July 2026 15:39:41
Just want to emphasise one remarkable aspect of this. Its not a 'plume heatwave' that we are used to. In a plume heatwave, a North easterly wind would waft the heat away quickly; while it has lessened the impact for some really its only had a sea breeze type effect and hasn't changed the temperature of the airmass that much. So what's going on?

This is an 'adiabatic heatwave' or a 'heat dome' which is very very unusual for the UK. Essentially we have a powerful deep anticyclone with near record geopotentials above about 850hpa and extending well above 500hpa. These deep semi-permanent anticyclones do not usually exist at our latitudes. There are basically three in the NHem summer; one over the southern USA, one over north Africa and Arabia, and one over central Asia. 

What seems to happen is almost like a 'reverse 2010', instead of a bit of polar vortex breaking off and migrating to latitudes where it doesn't belong; instead we have a bit of the 'hadley anticyclone' break away from north africa and come to settle over Europe and the UK. The air is descending synoptically at levels we do not usually see. So it doesn't much matter what the surface winds are doing if ultra high potential temperature air is sitting 3000m+ above our heads that is easily able to descend and introduce warm air from above. Understand that potential temperature, is the temperature accounting for pressure; its only really cold upstairs because the pressure is low; once you have accounted for the pressure its actually warmer higher up and that's even more the case in ultra thick anticyclones.

I wonder, what happens if we combine 2026 with 2022. We have a heat dome like 2026, but as the dome starts to decay, we get a plume of 2022 magnitudes. 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Retron
15 July 2026 15:54:55

What seems to happen is almost like a 'reverse 2010', instead of a bit of polar vortex breaking off and migrating to latitudes where it doesn't belong; instead we have a bit of the 'hadley anticyclone' break away from north africa and come to settle over Europe and the UK. The air is descending synoptically at levels we do not usually see.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Don't forget the ground-based effects too: low moisture levels means more diurnal heating (the sun is still almost as strong as it gets), which is enough to reach ~5500 feet or so (hence the afternoon peaks on the 850 charts, or the saw-tooth effect as Brian called it the other day). This is, as you say, more like you'd expect to see over the arid areas of Spain and north Africa.

It really is a remarkable pattern, throughout the atmosphere, and it's why I described it as self-sustaining the other day. It really is the summer equivalent of 2010.


Leysdown, north Kent
scillydave
15 July 2026 16:07:19
2022 was the first time I really recall having a hot, dry wind blowing. This year it's been really noticeable for the past 4 or 5 days here in the normally damp south Wales. Quite an extraordinary summer here so far.

Day after day of unbroken sunshine too.


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Rob K
15 July 2026 17:31:53

What is the record for consecutive 30c days somewhere in UK? I know it's documented that Heathrow had 16 consecutive days of 30c in 1976 but that's a single station (so even more notable), but what about consecutive days at any UK weather station? I guess it would be more than 16 if a single station achieved it.

Originally Posted by: BYF1 

To the best of my knowledge it is 18, in 1976 (June 22 to July 9th inclusive).

BTW Shannon airport in Ireland is currently warmer than anywhere in the UK. That must be fairly rare!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Quantum
15 July 2026 17:47:46

To the best of my knowledge it is 18, in 1976 (June 22 to July 9th inclusive).

BTW Shannon airport in Ireland is currently warmer than anywhere in the UK. That must be fairly rare!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Although pretty much an every day occurrence in January! 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Rob K
15 July 2026 18:40:06
30.5 the final max at Hurn, which looks like the top value unless the Weymouth manual station can come up trumps. But I think the coast was a little cooler today.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Hungry Tiger
15 July 2026 21:57:29

Just want to emphasise one remarkable aspect of this. Its not a 'plume heatwave' that we are used to. In a plume heatwave, a North easterly wind would waft the heat away quickly; while it has lessened the impact for some really its only had a sea breeze type effect and hasn't changed the temperature of the airmass that much. So what's going on?

This is an 'adiabatic heatwave' or a 'heat dome' which is very very unusual for the UK. Essentially we have a powerful deep anticyclone with near record geopotentials above about 850hpa and extending well above 500hpa. These deep semi-permanent anticyclones do not usually exist at our latitudes. There are basically three in the NHem summer; one over the southern USA, one over north Africa and Arabia, and one over central Asia. 

What seems to happen is almost like a 'reverse 2010', instead of a bit of polar vortex breaking off and migrating to latitudes where it doesn't belong; instead we have a bit of the 'hadley anticyclone' break away from north africa and come to settle over Europe and the UK. The air is descending synoptically at levels we do not usually see. So it doesn't much matter what the surface winds are doing if ultra high potential temperature air is sitting 3000m+ above our heads that is easily able to descend and introduce warm air from above. Understand that potential temperature, is the temperature accounting for pressure; its only really cold upstairs because the pressure is low; once you have accounted for the pressure its actually warmer higher up and that's even more the case in ultra thick anticyclones.

I wonder, what happens if we combine 2026 with 2022. We have a heat dome like 2026, but as the dome starts to decay, we get a plume of 2022 magnitudes. 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Top post. Excellent description of things. This explains why it has hung around for so long. 🙂🙂🙂🙂


Gavin S. FRmetS.

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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
15 July 2026 22:11:20
Heatwave score after today’s 30.5C at Hurn: 39.9.

So we should get into the 40s with this event, but won’t threaten 2006 or 2003 for 2nd place, and are still miles off June-July 1976.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
The Beast from the East
16 July 2026 00:11:38

Don't forget the ground-based effects too: low moisture levels means more diurnal heating (the sun is still almost as strong as it gets), which is enough to reach ~5500 feet or so (hence the afternoon peaks on the 850 charts, or the saw-tooth effect as Brian called it the other day). This is, as you say, more like you'd expect to see over the arid areas of Spain and north Africa.

It really is a remarkable pattern, throughout the atmosphere, and it's why I described it as self-sustaining the other day. It really is the summer equivalent of 2010.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Excellent posts from you and Q.  the Pub run perhaps shows this well.  On the face of it, it doesnt look hot, Azores high out west, but the heat dome is still affecting us.  July is on course to be the hottest month ever recorded in Europe. 

UserPostedImage


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

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Rob K
16 July 2026 09:58:45
Weymouth Preston Cove max was 30.1C yesterday so not beating Hurn. Looks like today might be a degree or so warmer with clearer skies. Tomorrow should also just about hit 30, and Saturday might according to GFS, but not the high-res models.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Bertwhistle
16 July 2026 11:51:37
Southampton Airport showing 28°C and St Catherine's Point (IOW) 27.5.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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picturesareme
16 July 2026 12:17:51
30.C 🌞🌞
Chidog
16 July 2026 12:27:24

Heatwave score after today’s 30.5C at Hurn: 39.9.

So we should get into the 40s with this event, but won’t threaten 2006 or 2003 for 2nd place, and are still miles off June-July 1976.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

The June heatwave scored 38.6, so still pretty exceptional to get two of the largest heatwaves in UK history within 3-4 weeks of each other! Only 7 days in between the two events

Bertwhistle
16 July 2026 12:32:28
Southampton Oceanography Centre and Gosport Fleetlands highest atm- 28.8°C.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Rob K
16 July 2026 13:37:06

Southampton Oceanography Centre and Gosport Fleetlands highest atm- 28.8°C.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

The first of those is a rooftop site and not official. Heathrow has hit 29.5. Could be a good day for the Weymouth manual station too as the south coast seems to be feeling the heat!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Bertwhistle
16 July 2026 13:37:50
Southampton airport 30°C.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Bertwhistle
16 July 2026 13:46:20

The first of those is a rooftop site and not official. Heathrow has hit 29.5. Could be a good day for the Weymouth manual station too as the south coast seems to be feeling the heat!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Heathrow has let it slip- currently 28.

Although Southampton airport is not included in the MetO selection it is an official site (was previously reported by the Met) 30° currently. 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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