The Weather Outlook

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Brian Gaze
05 July 2026 10:28:12
Looks pretty solid to me for at least the next week. I mentioned a few days ago that 9–11 July was worth watching, and that continues IMO to be the case. A number of models, not just the GFS, are now tilting towards blowtorch heat during this period.

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Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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The Beast from the East
05 July 2026 10:34:35
GFS is hotter than it looks. You would think a flow of the north sea would be cooler
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

doctormog
05 July 2026 10:35:01

Statistical drivel either way. They don't have an instrument that reads accurately or precisely to two decimal places and so should have been quoted as 29.4C in the first place.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

I wonder if it is an averaging thing and the max was measured over a certain time period where it oscillated between 29.3 and 29.4°C?


Rob K
05 July 2026 15:06:52

I wonder if it is an averaging thing and the max was measured over a certain time period where it oscillated between 29.3 and 29.4°C?

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I think I read somewhere that they use a rounding method that rounds up half the time and down half the time. So if .35 rounds to .3 then .45 will round to .5, and so on...


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Retron
05 July 2026 15:16:56

I think I read somewhere that they use a rounding method that rounds up half the time and down half the time. So if .35 rounds to .3 then .45 will round to .5, and so on...

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

That won't be it - AFAIK rounding in weather obs is standard, i.e. a .5 will round up every time, .35 would round up to .4 and .45 to .5. (The only "special" thing that'd make maths teachers squirm is -0, which is shorthand for -0.1 to -0.4 and which is used in some weather model output charts).

The answer IMO is that obs are indeed recorded to two decimal places at some stations, presumably those with the latest kit, but you don't normally see them reported with such accuracy.

https://weatherobs.com/ 

Shoeburyness (near Southend) is a good example - click it, then station dashboard and you'll see all the obs are reported to two decimal places, including dewpoints:

2026-07-05 14:40:00 26.71 14.62 

2026-07-05 14:30:00 25.74 13.99 

2026-07-05 14:20:00 25.55 13.93 

2026-07-05 14:10:00 25.85 14.39 

2026-07-05 14:00:00 25.06 14.12 


Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
05 July 2026 15:36:45
Met Office auto forecasts for here are once again much higher than the iPhone app. 

Met goes 33 32 33 34 33 33 from tomorrow. iPhone has 30 28 30 31 31 31. 

In the June spell the iPhone was much closer to reality while the Met kept going for the phantom 39s and 40s, so we shall see if that’s the case again. In the past the Met has tended to be quite conservative during hot spells but this year they seem to be overdoing the temps. 

Re the max decimal places, on Weatherobs the 1800 readings always seem to have the max to 2dp, in Kelvin. Sometimes the .x5 values (In Celsius equivalent, i.e. .x0 in Kelvin) get rounded up, sometimes down, and I have never figured out the logic. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
05 July 2026 17:04:44
30.1c at Heathrow, 16th 30c day.

How many in a row can we get from today?


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
05 July 2026 17:23:05

30.1c at Heathrow, 16th 30c day.

How many in a row can we get from today?

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

GFS 12Z has 30C or higher every day to the 20th, so that would be a run of 16 days including today and take us to 31 in total, just three short of 1995. And with six weeks of summer still to go!

Also based on the GFS there are quite a few possible date records coming up:

7th: 33.3C (1893), GFS has 33C

8th: 34.1C (1941), GFS has 34C

9th: 32.7C (2010), GFS has 36C

10th: 33.9C (1921), GFS has 37C

11th: 34.7C (2025), GFS has 38C

12th: 35.0C (1923), GFS has 36C

14th: 32.3C (1983), GFS has 32C


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

White Meadows
05 July 2026 19:34:10
While not as hot as the June heatwave, and perhaps the May one too, will coastal regions stay cooler this time? Or climb as high as temps inland? I wonder if the Marine heatwave allows for this phenomenon. I’m calling it a phenomenon because having lived along the south coast my whole life, it’s always been at least a few degrees cooler in warm spells, regardless of wind direction, pressure set up etc. 
scillydave
05 July 2026 20:55:48
The GFS 12z puts the past 2 heatwaves in the shade. Will the pub run follow suit? 

I hope not - 15 days straight (at least) of the temperatures hitting 32c or above somewhere in the south of the UK would have huge impacts - much more so than May or June. In a heatwave longevity has a big part to play on the impact.

And that's not forgetting that the 12z also serves up a good number of 36c plus days.


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Matty H
05 July 2026 22:37:52
ECM op builds some quite incredible heat to the near continent in the latter stages. Tap into that and anything is possible 
Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

fairweather
05 July 2026 23:56:02

I wonder if it is an averaging thing and the max was measured over a certain time period where it oscillated between 29.3 and 29.4°C?

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Possibly, but scientifically you wouldn't quote it greater than your measured precision. So should have been rounded. Of course strictly speaking they should quote the tolerances (+/- ) at a given confidence level, and they possibly do in house but don't want to confuse the public. After all it is just the weather 😊


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Retron
06 July 2026 03:09:58

Possibly, but scientifically you wouldn't quote it greater than your measured precision. So should have been rounded. Of course strictly speaking they should quote the tolerances (+/- ) at a given confidence level, and they possibly do in house but don't want to confuse the public. After all it is just the weather 😊

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

It's as if you didn't read my earlier post! 😅They're measured to 2dp (at least in some stations), but you don't normally get to see that precision.


Leysdown, north Kent
Jiries
06 July 2026 05:19:30

It's as if you didn't read my earlier post! 😅They're measured to 2dp (at least in some stations), but you don't normally get to see that precision.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

I used once for Nicosia July average result when it first time just closed to 40C when the result was 39.5 then checked to 2dp was actually resulted at 39.45C so only that time I used 2dp.  Let hope to see sunny days this time today onward.

The Beast from the East
06 July 2026 09:39:39

ECM op builds some quite incredible heat to the near continent in the latter stages. Tap into that and anything is possible 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

still there this morning on extended ECM. But GFS wants to break it down quicker

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Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Rob K
06 July 2026 10:16:00
30.3C the max yesterday at Heathrow and 30 looks pretty nailed on every day until at least the weekend. Hints that the school holiday effect will occur again though - schools break up on Friday 17th here which seems to be firming up as the end of the heat.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Bertwhistle
06 July 2026 10:55:05
6z GFS hinting at a very warm northeasterly setup becoming established after mid month, lasting at least until 18th, in complete contrast to the cool NNWlies suggested at the same time yesterday.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

NMA
  • NMA
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06 July 2026 10:56:04
I met a well-to-do family from Scotland the other week, two days before the big heat materialised. They'd got stuck on a track leading to the cottage by the coast where Chris Yates the angling writer used to take his four children.  It's idyllic and a short walk to some wild swimming and stunning walks. It's also in the middle of nowhere and you really need a four wheel drive to get there. They'd been told to drive as far as they could but the car had got stuck. So I helped them carry their belongings to said accommodation from where they'd abandoned their car. It was already warm.  The car decent enough (posh but low wheelbase), wasn't up to driving along the track fully laden. They were here at the start of their Scottish summer holidays, they said. Don't go to Durdle Door or Lulworth Cove, I warned them if they valued their sanity, when they asked about things to do. They must have experienced dangerous heat stress when the heat finally arrived. I hope they had a good time and got safely back to the damp chill up North.
Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Bertwhistle
06 July 2026 11:19:42
I presume they retrieved the car okay?
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Viking3
06 July 2026 11:26:35

That won't be it - AFAIK rounding in weather obs is standard, i.e. a .5 will round up every time, .35 would round up to .4 and .45 to .5. (The only "special" thing that'd make maths teachers squirm is -0, which is shorthand for -0.1 to -0.4 and which is used in some weather model output charts).

The answer IMO is that obs are indeed recorded to two decimal places at some stations, presumably those with the latest kit, but you don't normally see them reported with such accuracy.

https://weatherobs.com/ 

Shoeburyness (near Southend) is a good example - click it, then station dashboard and you'll see all the obs are reported to two decimal places, including dewpoints:

2026-07-05 14:40:00 26.71 14.62 

2026-07-05 14:30:00 25.74 13.99 

2026-07-05 14:20:00 25.55 13.93 

2026-07-05 14:10:00 25.85 14.39 

2026-07-05 14:00:00 25.06 14.12 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

The Met Office SAWS stations are able to record temperatures to at least 2 decimal places, but the main reason we are seeing these reported more widely is down to the adoption of WMO BUFR code in place of the old SYNOP code which only room for a single decimal place.

This is the 1400 UTC observation from Shoeburyness yesterday that Darren posted above, BUFR format first then SYNOP format.

BUFR

001001:3 001002:693 001015:SHOEBURYNESS LANDWIC 002001:0 004001:2026 004002:7 004003:5 004004:14 004005:0 005001:51.55475 006001:0.82700 007030:2.0 007031:2.0 010004:102320 010051:102340 010061:-80 010063:8 010062- 007004- 010009- 007032:1.25 012101:298.21 012103:287.27 013003:51 007032- 020001:50530 007032:0.00 013023- 007032:0.00 020010:25 008002- 020011:2 020013:1220 020012- 020012- 020012- 008002:21 020011:2 020012- 020013:1220 008002:7 020054- 008002:8 020054- 008002:9 020054- 008002- 005021- 007021- 020012- 005021- 007021- 020062- 013013- 012113- 020003:508 004024:-1 020004- 020005- 004024:-24 014031- 004024:-1 014031:29 007032:0.00 004024:-12 013011- 004024:-1 013011:0.0 007032:1.25 004024:-12 004024:0 012111- 004024:-12 004024:0 012112- 007032:0.00 002002:12 008021:2 004025:-10 011001:290 011002:4.0 008021- 004025:-10 011043:280 011041:7.2 004025:-60 011043:290 011041:8.4 007032- 004024:-24 002004- 013033- 004024:-1 014002- 014004- 014016- 014028- 014029- 014030- 004024:-24 014002- 014004- 014016- 014028- 014029- 014030- 004024- 004024- 012049-2026-07-05 13:40:00 001125:0 001126:826 001127:0 001128:217 001001:3 001002:693

SYNOP

202607051400 0-826-0-217 03693 AAXX 05144 03693 25684 22908 10251 20141 30232 40234 58008 82/// 333 55304 60005 82/40 91014 90710 91116==

The temperature from the BUFR code is 298.21K (-273.15 = 25.06C) and dewpoint 287.27K (-273.15 = 14.12C) and from the SYNOP code temperature is 25.1C and dewpoint 14.1C.

It seems that nearly all if not all of the UK stations now report fully in BUFR format, so it looks like the extra decimal place is here to stay!


Keith

Aboyne, Aberdeenshire

135m asl

NMA
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  • Advanced Member
06 July 2026 11:26:38

I presume they retrieved the car okay?

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Once the car was lighter, they drove it to the car space! 


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

The Beast from the East
06 July 2026 11:53:51

30.3C the max yesterday at Heathrow and 30 looks pretty nailed on every day until at least the weekend. Hints that the school holiday effect will occur again though - schools break up on Friday 17th here which seems to be firming up as the end of the heat.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Most of the GEFS 06z break things down after day 10, though we often see high pressure holding on better than forecast, so a long way to go.  But by then, most of us would want some cooler wetter weather, school holidays or not


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Retron
06 July 2026 12:14:30

The Met Office SAWS stations are able to record temperatures to at least 2 decimal places, but the main reason we are seeing these reported more widely is down to the adoption of WMO BUFR code in place of the old SYNOP code which only room for a single decimal place.

Originally Posted by: Viking3 

Thank you for that detailed info - it explains it very well! 👍


Leysdown, north Kent
johncs2016
06 July 2026 13:40:48

The Met Office SAWS stations are able to record temperatures to at least 2 decimal places, but the main reason we are seeing these reported more widely is down to the adoption of WMO BUFR code in place of the old SYNOP code which only room for a single decimal place.

This is the 1400 UTC observation from Shoeburyness yesterday that Darren posted above, BUFR format first then SYNOP format.

BUFR

001001:3 001002:693 001015:SHOEBURYNESS LANDWIC 002001:0 004001:2026 004002:7 004003:5 004004:14 004005:0 005001:51.55475 006001:0.82700 007030:2.0 007031:2.0 010004:102320 010051:102340 010061:-80 010063:8 010062- 007004- 010009- 007032:1.25 012101:298.21 012103:287.27 013003:51 007032- 020001:50530 007032:0.00 013023- 007032:0.00 020010:25 008002- 020011:2 020013:1220 020012- 020012- 020012- 008002:21 020011:2 020012- 020013:1220 008002:7 020054- 008002:8 020054- 008002:9 020054- 008002- 005021- 007021- 020012- 005021- 007021- 020062- 013013- 012113- 020003:508 004024:-1 020004- 020005- 004024:-24 014031- 004024:-1 014031:29 007032:0.00 004024:-12 013011- 004024:-1 013011:0.0 007032:1.25 004024:-12 004024:0 012111- 004024:-12 004024:0 012112- 007032:0.00 002002:12 008021:2 004025:-10 011001:290 011002:4.0 008021- 004025:-10 011043:280 011041:7.2 004025:-60 011043:290 011041:8.4 007032- 004024:-24 002004- 013033- 004024:-1 014002- 014004- 014016- 014028- 014029- 014030- 004024:-24 014002- 014004- 014016- 014028- 014029- 014030- 004024- 004024- 012049-2026-07-05 13:40:00 001125:0 001126:826 001127:0 001128:217 001001:3 001002:693

SYNOP

202607051400 0-826-0-217 03693 AAXX 05144 03693 25684 22908 10251 20141 30232 40234 58008 82/// 333 55304 60005 82/40 91014 90710 91116==

The temperature from the BUFR code is 298.21K (-273.15 = 25.06C) and dewpoint 287.27K (-273.15 = 14.12C) and from the SYNOP code temperature is 25.1C and dewpoint 14.1C.

It seems that nearly all if not all of the UK stations now report fully in BUFR format, so it looks like the extra decimal place is here to stay!

Originally Posted by: Viking3 

That is the newer of those two formats and is the reason why I changed my various python scripts to use the raw BUFR data from ogimet.com instead of the older SYNOP format which the older versions of my scripts used, even though you can still download that data in the older raw SYNOP format from ogimet.com (which means that the older versions of my scripts would technically speaking, still work today).

As shown above as well, the temperature readings from the BUFR format are in Kelvin whereas the temperatures in the SYNOP format were already in °C (the SYNOP codes actually showed that multiplied by 10) but in my python scripts, it was easy enough to convert those temperatures into °C.

With that change in the format, also came a change in the accuracy with these temperature now showing up to the nearest 0.01K (which is just 0.01°C) instead of the nearest 0.1°C.

Airport sites (such as Edinburgh Airport, Glasgow Airport or Heathrow Airport) on the other hand, use METAR data (even though Edinburgh Airport is also a WMO site with a WMO code of 03160) which even to this very day, still only shows the temperature to the nearest full 1°C.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Rob K
06 July 2026 13:42:15
Already 32 at Heathrow (well, 31.96 😉 )

It feels very breezy here less than 20 miles from Heathrow and I am surprised it's that warm tbh. Local PWS reading 31 but with a dewpoint below 10C and 20mph gusts it doesn't feel oppressive at all.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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