The Weather Outlook

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Rob K
07 July 2026 18:21:39

32.2c at Wisley is the highest I can see so far today.

18th 30c day

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Teddington hit 32.4C. So a little way off the date record, and 0.3C cooler than today was in 1976.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
07 July 2026 18:28:13

A little patch of 22C sea temperatures off Essex - by far the highest I've seen in UK waters on these charts. Down south at least it's more like you'd expect in early September after a roasting summer... and we've still got several weeks left of summer yet!

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/90/24125/sstuktph6.gif 

EDIT: And according to Weatherobs, a couple of ships in the Thames estuary, quite a way away from land, are reporting 26 and 25. Quite remarkable, and shows how much warm air is flowing across the sea.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Retron 

I was there on Sunday, Frinton on Sea, you could pretty much go straight in without having to get used to it lol. 

Incredibly warm for so early in Summer. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
07 July 2026 18:39:16
Felt chilly sat outside in the shade at lunch with a stiff breeze.

Temp was supposed to be 21, but felt about 16


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
07 July 2026 19:52:17
Is there somewhere online that has UK maximum temperatures per day for historical weather events? (Aside from the TWO classic threads)

I’m thinking of doing a heatwave index to measure this one up against others. The system would be:

- heatwave starts when somewhere in UK hits 30.0C and ends when it it fails to do so anywhere

- 1 point for every degree day above 30C, plus 1 (ie 1 point for 30.0, 1.5 for 30.5C and so on.)

- then add a point per day of duration.

So a classic working week heatwave of 30,31,33,33,30 would score 17, while a 3 day wonder record attempt of 34,40,33 then bust would get 23.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
07 July 2026 20:03:44

Is there somewhere online that has UK maximum temperatures per day for historical weather events? (Aside from the TWO classic threads)

I’m thinking of doing a heatwave index to measure this one up against others. The system would be:

- heatwave starts when somewhere in UK hits 30.0C and ends when it it fails to do so anywhere

- 1 point for every degree day above 30C, plus 1 (ie 1 point for 30.0, 1.5 for 30.5C and so on.)

- then add a point per day of duration.

So a classic working week heatwave of 30,31,33,33,30 would score 17, while a 3 day wonder record attempt of 34,40,33 then bust would get 23.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Incidentally on that model the to-date (from Sunday) and GFS modelled maxes from the 12z give us a 14 day event.

30.3 (Heathrow)

34.0 (Teddington)

32.4 (Teddington)

34

35

35

34

33

34

34

36

32

31

31

Which would score 59.7 + 14 = 73.7 points.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
07 July 2026 20:38:53

Is there somewhere online that has UK maximum temperatures per day for historical weather events? (Aside from the TWO classic threads)

Roost Weather has daily max and min for every date since 1900 and before. https://www.roostweather.com/ukobs/ukgraphs.php?type=yeardailyextreme&field=temp 

It maybe misses some manual data eg the Lingwood 37.7 from June is not there. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Matty H
07 July 2026 21:26:07

Incredibly warm for so early in Summer. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

This is the key bit for me. We are on heatwave number 3. All of them remarkable, and we are only a third of the way into summer. Incredible 


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Jiries
07 July 2026 22:30:58

I was there on Sunday, Frinton on Sea, you could pretty much go straight in without having to get used to it lol. 

Incredibly warm for so early in Summer. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

In 1995 was 22C to 24C sea temps over SE coasts from viewing daily sea temps data from satellite German teletext ARD19 channel had brilliant weather data for sea and snow reports like highest I seen was St Anton 650cm top 550cm lower.  They are updated until May it gone and return in October. After seeing high sea temps in 1995 it fell fast in the short autumn we had as colder winter set in early so ended at 4C to 6C in Feb 1996.  This year should break the record high sea temps and if so will a repeat to drop back fast?

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
07 July 2026 22:55:51

Roost Weather has daily max and min for every date since 1900 and before. https://www.roostweather.com/ukobs/ukgraphs.php?type=yeardailyextreme&field=temp 

It maybe misses some manual data eg the Lingwood 37.7 from June is not there. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Excellent. Will get compiling some scores tomorrow. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
The Beast from the East
08 July 2026 01:18:39

I was there on Sunday, Frinton on Sea, you could pretty much go straight in without having to get used to it lol. 

Incredibly warm for so early in Summer. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Was it also full of human excrement?


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Ally Pally Snowman
08 July 2026 03:01:46

Was it also full of human excrement?

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

I think its one of the cleanest areas of coast. Quite a few jellyfish though.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
08 July 2026 08:16:50

Teddington hit 32.4C. So a little way off the date record, and 0.3C cooler than today was in 1976.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

The Met Office extremes page says Frittenden was the max, which was also 32.4 but a few hundredths lower than Teddington. Maybe they have doubts about Teddington at the moment too?


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
08 July 2026 08:26:30

The Met Office extremes page says Frittenden was the max, which was also 32.4 but a few hundredths lower than Teddington. Maybe they have doubts about Teddington at the moment too?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I think it’s more to do with alphabetical order. And only using one decimal place. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
08 July 2026 08:33:18
Looking at the output another 10 30c days definitely possible. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
08 July 2026 08:40:51

Looking at the output another 10 30c days definitely possible. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

GFS doesn't quite make it to 30 on Monday. The GEFS have definitely picked up a dip around the 12th-14th but quite a few runs pick it up to properly hot territory again after that. At the moment there is fairly good agreement on cooler (but still warm) conditions by about the 21st but that is a very long way out, and you wouldn't bet against round 4 coming into view soon!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

The Beast from the East
08 July 2026 09:09:45

GFS doesn't quite make it to 30 on Monday. The GEFS have definitely picked up a dip around the 12th-14th but quite a few runs pick it up to properly hot territory again after that. At the moment there is fairly good agreement on cooler (but still warm) conditions by about the 21st but that is a very long way out, and you wouldn't bet against round 4 coming into view soon!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Long range ECM suggests a new Azores ridge pushing in again once the current heatwave gives way.  Though our window to achieve 40c is probably shrinking as the days become shorter. 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Rob K
08 July 2026 09:44:03

Long range ECM suggests a new Azores ridge pushing in again once the current heatwave gives way.  Though our window to achieve 40c is probably shrinking as the days become shorter. 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Plenty of time yet I would have thought - the 38.5 record in 2003 was in the second week of August, and the peak of the date records chart is around late July to mid August. I think the temperature lag more than outweighs the shorter days for a few weeks yet.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Retron
08 July 2026 09:48:11

Plenty of time yet I would have thought - the 38.5 record in 2003 was in the second week of August, and the peak of the date records chart is around late July to mid August. I think the temperature lag more than outweighs the shorter days for a few weeks yet.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Yes, another 5 weeks or so where super-high temperatures are possible, I'd say - it's mid-August when things start to finally cool off, and by then we've lost another hour and three-quarters of daylight, the sun is noticably weaker and so forth. Mind you, considering it got to 35C on the 1st  and 2nd September 1906, it's presumably possible to get into the high 30s at least even that late in the year!


Leysdown, north Kent
ozoneaurora
08 July 2026 09:49:46
September could see temperatures exceeding 38 C max, considering that the highest record is 35.6°C (or 96.1°F), recorded at Bawtry, in Sth Yorkshire, on September 2, 1906.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
08 July 2026 10:04:19
Right, I’ve calculated the heatwave index for what I think are the 3 most relevant historical events. I’ve done away with the bonus points for duration as that’s arguably double counting anyway. 

1976: 18 days of 30C+ from 22 June to 9 July. Score 79.1

2003: 10 days from 3-12 August. Score 48.4

2006: 14 days from 16 to 29 July. Score 47.3

1976 remains the pinnacle. An absurdly extreme event, especially given the global climate at the time. But 2006 and 2003 should be in our sights this month.

Score so far in this event: 4.7


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
westv
08 July 2026 10:20:16
If 1976 had been now, I wonder where it would have got to.
Big heat in May

Summer will be spray.

The Beast from the East
08 July 2026 10:23:52
very different 06z. severe thundery breakdown on Thursday


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
08 July 2026 11:30:42

If 1976 had been now, I wonder where it would have got to.

Originally Posted by: westv 

Looking at the Synoptics I reckon you could add a couple of degrees to most days. So probably 37-38C at peak. Not a record because it didn’t have a deep Southerly fetch like 2022.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
08 July 2026 12:39:13
Looking at the daily max map for 50 years ago you can see the difference in how widespread the heat was this week in 1976. 30C right up to Scotland.  https://www.roostweather.com/ukobs/maxtemp_map.php?date=1976-07-08&button_press=1

Edit: now 31.2C at Charlwood so we are hotter than July 8 1976, although this was the penultimate day of that record-breaking run back then.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Chidog
08 July 2026 13:16:38

Right, I’ve calculated the heatwave index for what I think are the 3 most relevant historical events. I’ve done away with the bonus points for duration as that’s arguably double counting anyway. 

1976: 18 days of 30C+ from 22 June to 9 July. Score 79.1

2003: 10 days from 3-12 August. Score 48.4

2006: 14 days from 16 to 29 July. Score 47.3

1976 remains the pinnacle. An absurdly extreme event, especially given the global climate at the time. But 2006 and 2003 should be in our sights this month.

Score so far in this event: 4.7

Originally Posted by: TimS 

On your scale, we have already had a heatwave in May scoring 16.5 and another in June scoring 32.2 before this one...

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