The Weather Outlook

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Ally Pally Snowman
23 June 2026 04:18:47

Aperge of all the models has handled these temperatures appallingly. That’s a huge correction. 

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Yes its ridiculous West Country 40s were always very unlikely.  The Storms have caught all the models out though.  Hammering down here as I type. But at least it's interesting weather.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
23 June 2026 04:20:35

The ground is soaked through after these hefty storms developed through London, so all the dry ground we had developed over the past few days is gone. Of course I slept through them so didn’t even get to enjoy that

The June record will likely go, but I fear after all this wet ground, it will be very tough to get anywhere close to these numbers.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

I think you're forgetting three things there: 1) the sun is as strong as it gets in this country = high levels of evaporation, 2) it's summer and everything is growing like crazy = high levels of evapotranspiration, 3) the airmass is incredibly hot and under a high pressure ridge tends to dry out as the air descends = even more evaporation.

I daresay by the end of today it'll be baked dry again in areas that are exposed to the sun. And areas like my garden that are protected by a couple of layers of tree and shrub canopy? They'll stay damp today and probably tomorrow, but even they'll be dry again by Thursday.


Leysdown, north Kent
Heavy Weather 2013
23 June 2026 04:23:54

I think you're forgetting three things there: 1) the sun is as strong as it gets in this country = high levels of evaporation, 2) it's summer and everything is growing like crazy = high levels of evapotranspiration, 3) the airmass is incredibly hot and under a high pressure ridge tends to dry out as the air descends = even more evaporation.

I daresay by the end of today it'll be baked dry again in areas that are exposed to the sun. And areas like my garden that are protected by a couple of layers of tree and shrub canopy? They'll stay damp today and probably tomorrow, but even they'll be dry again by Thursday.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Can always rely on you to be the voice of reason Darren. I really shouldn’t let the weather annoy me. I think I’ve woken up grumpy, I’ve never been annoyed at a thunderstorm. Ironically Friday is now looking at the hottest day!


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Jiries
23 June 2026 04:24:50

Only a few spots of rain here most of which evaporated as it hit the gorund.

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

Here just dampened the ground then dry out but still can’t get high temps now due to other areas got very wet will tamper the temperatures from going so high.   

Moomin did your sockets not fry your appliances?  I had my dad old window 98 computer motherboard fried despite it was off but still plugged in while mine was unplugged.  This happened during violent ball lightning and hit a house next street so the current surge travel here.

Jiries
23 June 2026 04:30:10

Can always rely on you to be the voice of reason Darren. I really shouldn’t let the weather annoy me. I think I’ve woken up grumpy, I’ve never been annoyed at a thunderstorm. Ironically Friday is now looking at the hottest day!

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

32 today, then 32, 33 and 32 Friday.  Oh well the app and been spot on refusing to allow high temps or sunny weather.  Will put my thermometer out today to see if the app 32c or models 37 to. 38c is correct. 

Retron
23 June 2026 04:30:12

Can always rely on you to be the voice of reason Darren. I really shouldn’t let the weather annoy me. I think I’ve woken up grumpy, I’ve never been annoyed at a thunderstorm. Ironically Friday is now looking at the hottest day!

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Heh, yes - Friday is now showing 38C here on the MetO raw, and I'm dreading it. The next three days (31/33/31) will be bad enough, but I'm still wondering how we'll reach 33 especially given an onshore breeze! One thing that all this rain here will have done is raise the humidity even more... don't come to Sheppey for the next few days, I think people will stink of BO and sweat. 😂

FWIW this is the 12h accumulated precipitation via the NW radar; it's overstated things slightly here and I suspect will have done elsewhere too. The broad swathe of torrential rain is easily visible, especially over London, but you don't have to go far north or south to find areas which are largely or even completely dry. Don't forget too, with baked ground much of the rain will have run straight off into our streams, rivers and drains... it's not like in winter where the ground is soggy and the water just hangs around for days.

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/12h.jpg 

UserPostedImage


Leysdown, north Kent
bledur
23 June 2026 04:33:51
Still looks hot to me , plenty of 38,s on the Met Office Charts on Weds & Thursday,still Cheltenham area and parts of North Wales looking exceptionally hot.

For those further East Friday looks the day as the heat gets pushed that way and the west moderates to a mere 30.

The Storms were forecast on the charts but little mention on the TV weather forecast .

The cooling effect from the heavy rain will be marginal as the storms are isolated area wise in quantities of rain and the air mass is so hot in the first place.

Ally Pally Snowman
23 June 2026 04:40:39
Looks like quite a few tropical nights , Yeovilton a low of 21c
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
23 June 2026 05:11:13

Can always rely on you to be the voice of reason Darren. I really shouldn’t let the weather annoy me. I think I’ve woken up grumpy, I’ve never been annoyed at a thunderstorm. Ironically Friday is now looking at the hottest day!

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

My app for London was correct for thunderstorms but no mention on the forecasts.  Just read in the SE thread and one picture show lighting over Hoo.  Lot of red echoes on the radar.  All this started from the SW which models are kept insisting it will be the hottest place need to cancel it out now. 

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
23 June 2026 05:30:15
Already 22C at 6.30am. Sunny.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Brian Gaze
23 June 2026 05:53:53
I recorded 5.2mm of rain, and only a little thunder and lightning. Today's temperatures will be interesting. UKV suggests 33C to 35C.

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Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Rob K
23 June 2026 06:02:07
UKV just downgraded temperatures by 5C overnight. This is the summer equivalent of the phantom easterly! 

In fact compared to yesterday’s 03Z it is almost 10C cooler in some northern areas. The heat zone is far smaller. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Chidog
23 June 2026 06:06:50
Just been out for a run, I think even the new projected 34 for this area of South London is going to be a struggle. Incredibly humid, towers up to the SW, I wouldn't be surprised to see plenty of rain tbh. Models still seem useless at predicting convection
Ally Pally Snowman
23 June 2026 06:17:55

Just been out for a run, I think even the new projected 34 for this area of South London is going to be a struggle. Incredibly humid, towers up to the SW, I wouldn't be surprised to see plenty of rain tbh. Models still seem useless at predicting convection

Originally Posted by: Chidog 

Yes  lots of cloud here too, and storms still bubbling up

 I'd be surprised if London got to 33c today tbh. Maybe further west will go higher but the June record looks safe today.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Heavy Weather 2013
23 June 2026 06:18:48
UKV Max Temps today onwards:

Tue: 34C

Wed: 37C

Thu: 40C

Fri: 38C

Sat: 33C


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Matty H
23 June 2026 06:24:19
No clouds here, and the app projection is back up to 29c for Thursday. Interestingly it’s also now showing 30c for Friday whereas yesterday it was showing 24c
Yate, Nr Bristol

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Rob K
23 June 2026 06:27:00
A few places managed a tropical night: St Athan 20.3C minimum is the highest I can see (and 21.8C in Jersey).

Quite a lot of altocumulus castellanus here, the sort you normally see at the end of a hot day, not the start of one. Doesn’t bode well for reaching 35 although the date record should be a cert (a mere 32.2C in 1976).


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
23 June 2026 06:28:55

UKV Max Temps today onwards:

Tue: 34C

Wed: 37C

Thu: 40C

Fri: 38C

Sat: 33C

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

That looks very optimistic now. My punt would be a high of 37c now.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
23 June 2026 06:29:03

No clouds here, and the app projection is back up to 29c for Thursday. Interestingly it’s also now showing 30c for Friday whereas yesterday it was showing 24c

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Satellite shows the clouds over the SE heading off to the east quite rapidly but there is a new patch of convection bubbling up just south of Bristol as well which looks like it will be heading east along the Thames Valley. 

From Meltdown Monday we have gone to Mild Monday and Tepid Tuesday… then Washout Wednesday?


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Jiries
23 June 2026 06:48:21

UKV just downgraded temperatures by 5C overnight. This is the summer equivalent of the phantom easterly! 

In fact compared to yesterday’s 03Z it is almost 10C cooler in some northern areas. The heat zone is far smaller. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Yes that the problem with models nowadays is so unreliable and worst performance than in the past.  I wonder which model the app was using that refusing to show high temps, sunny and dry?  Even for London I saw they put thunderstorm symbol yesterday which in reality it came off this morning.  My dad told me they had storms at 5am in Letchworth, nothing here but lot of clouds left behind.  Won't be sunny today for sure so lost interest now time to look for another one that can be done properly like last month better quality sunny heatwave was.  Just once things go wrong the wrongness will continue and won't correct it back.

Ally Pally Snowman
23 June 2026 06:53:17
BBC weather just now still saying 36c today possibly 39c tmrw. But with Loads of storms bubbling still , 36c is very unlikely today. 39c also seem unlikely tmrw. That forecast could be a huge fail.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
23 June 2026 06:57:47

Yes that the problem with models nowadays is so unreliable and worst performance than in the past.  I wonder which model the app was using that refusing to show high temps, sunny and dry? 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

The iPhone app uses the IBM model I believe and also feeds in radar information for real time rain predictions. 

But it is clearly not infallible either as it shows full sun all day here when in reality the sky is very moody. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Heavy Weather 2013
23 June 2026 06:59:14

BBC weather just now still saying 36c today possibly 39c tmrw. But with Loads of storms bubbling still , 36c is very unlikely today. 39c also seem unlikely tmrw. That forecast could be a huge fail.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

I agree, the massive storm in London and the SE was completely unforecast.  The last 30hrs have been so poor from the majority of all models perhaps except the UKV, but even that has overestimated temps.


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Brian Gaze
23 June 2026 07:11:08
The BBC live feed is suggesting the June record will fall today. I'm very doubtful, 34°C or possibly 35°C is the upper limit IMO.

It will be a hotter day for all of us in the UK on Tuesday.

Across northern England and Wales it will get to 28 to 30C (86F), but for the Midlands, eastern and southern England, temperatures will widely exceed 33C.

In some locations around the south Midlands towards Greater London, the mercury is expected to peak at about 36 or 37C.

This will comfortably exceed the current June temperature record of 35.6C set in 1976.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c0ryvlxpg7rt?post=asset%3Ae730fcb0-b1e0-4907-8a05-c083b25712fe#post 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Matty H
23 June 2026 07:18:53
Interesting that from a few days ago, what looked like a nailed on flip to unsettled weather from Friday onward, does not look the case any more. A cool down, but summer continues. 
Yate, Nr Bristol

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