The Weather Outlook

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Hungry Tiger
22 June 2026 17:33:59

Now we have the mother of all thunderstorms. We’ve basically turned into Florida. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Just seen the radar of these. Incredible.  🙂🙂🙂🙂

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



HighPressureGloom
22 June 2026 17:42:41
Met office now forecasting 35c Thursday for Carlisle, imo, the Scottish temp record is very likely to fall Thursday around 4pm somewhere around the current record holding location near Kelso or the official record at holder RAF Chaterhall. Or even Gretna Annan area!
Matty H
22 June 2026 17:48:12

Just seen the radar of these. Incredible.  🙂🙂🙂🙂

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

A house not far from me has been hit and is ablaze 

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2026 17:52:26

Now we have the mother of all thunderstorms. We’ve basically turned into Florida. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

surely that would cool down the earth and lessen chance of heat record for your area tomorrow and folloing day. To break records you need dry days running up to the event and in the Uk that is difficult as its usally three hot days and a thunderstorm?

Kingston Upon Thames
Jiries
22 June 2026 17:53:30
Wonder where this unwelcome general rain not forecasted today? it been sunny as supposed to be for the coming heatwave then gone overcast and now light rain, this will ruin the high temperatures chances now.  No wonder why the horrible apps had been so offending persistance with rain and cloud this coming week and not hot maxes, about 5-6c lower than the models showing.  Didn't have any issue with last month heatwave as it was showing full sun and 33C maxes which was both occured.
Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2026 17:57:43

Wonder where this unwelcome general rain not forecasted today? it been sunny as supposed to be for the coming heatwave then gone overcast and now light rain, this will ruin the high temperatures chances now.  No wonder why the horrible apps had been so offending persistance with rain and cloud this coming week and not hot maxes, about 5-6c lower than the models showing.  Didn't have any issue with last month heatwave as it was showing full sun and 33C maxes which was both occured.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

They still seems to be away from London and SE for the moment although the sky has turned cloudy. We could miss this altogether in which case we have a good chance for record breaking heat for the next 48 hpurs.

Kingston Upon Thames
The Beast from the East
22 June 2026 17:58:46

Severe Thunderstorms could be big news maker this week, perhaps more than the heat. 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

I told you so!

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

+1
Retron
22 June 2026 18:07:16
UKV shows 40 again on Friday - unfortunately, not far from here. And then some 34s on Saturday - again, very close to here. The flipside is more of an easterly tomorrow, Wednesday and Thursday which means temperatures are "only" in the low 30s, still 10C or so above average mind you!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts3/ukv/ukv_custom/ukv_2026_JUN_22_15_96_2mmaxtemp_50.9_0.4_1.png 

UserPostedImage

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts3/ukv/ukv_custom/ukv_2026_JUN_22_15_120_2mmaxtemp_50.9_0.4_1.png 

UserPostedImage

Leysdown, north Kent
The Beast from the East
22 June 2026 18:10:04
So we've gone from "Meltdown" Monday to "Fry me" Friday!  Despite all the supercomputer power in the world, the weather will keep surprising us!

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

+3
Retron
22 June 2026 18:14:05

So we've gone from "Meltdown" Monday to "Fry me" Friday!  Despite all the supercomputer power in the world, the weather will keep surprising us!

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

I did say a few days ago that I wasn't going to go as far as Friday, but "Fry me" wouldn't be the first adjective that comes to mind! "Sucky Saturday" looks like following on. 

The good news (for heat-haters like me) is that as we've seen, even at short notice there are considerable changes - e.g. the way the MetO raw was showing 38C for tomorrow as of yesterday, but now it shows 31. Or the way the current storms have popped up, or the way that tomorrow morning may see a bit of rain first thing down here. 

It's all very reminiscent of our annual chases for snow, even when you think you have that easterly nailed-on, a small feature pops up and changes things. The main difference is that unlike snow temperatures in the 30s are a dead-cert each year now!

That said, further west from here, e.g. at Reading, there's been much less change. The MetO raw shows 38 and 39 for Wednesday and Thursday respectively, having been showing 40 and 40 when I got up this morning.

Leysdown, north Kent
moomin75
22 June 2026 18:22:01
A totally unforecast severe thunderstorm right overhead here in Witney. The most intense I've ever seen. A lightning bolt just split a tree at the bottom of my garden in half (and no, I am not kidding)!!
Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

+1
moomin75
22 June 2026 18:23:51

A house not far from me has been hit and is ablaze 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

My silver birch tree has just been struck, less than 20 metres from my house. Scary as anything ever!

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

+1
roadrunnerajn
22 June 2026 18:24:48
I mentioned on the model output discussion this morning that computer generated charts struggle to forecast developing tough activity. Ironically the fax was showing a tough moving ENE from Biscay a couple of days ago. Thursday is also looking a bit mixed with a ripe cocktail for developing storms. If this does happen it could lower the temperatures predicted by the models.
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic. 80m asl
Brian Gaze
22 June 2026 18:26:04
UKV should steady the ship!
Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Matty H
22 June 2026 18:31:18

surely that would cool down the earth and lessen chance of heat record for your area tomorrow and folloing day. To break records you need dry days running up to the event and in the Uk that is difficult as its usally three hot days and a thunderstorm?

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

It’s like it never happened already. Pretty much bone dry 

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Hungry Tiger
22 June 2026 18:34:52

A house not far from me has been hit and is ablaze 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

How dreadful.  🙁🙁🙁🙁

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Bertwhistle
22 June 2026 18:35:01

Even MetO app has moderated for tomorrow somewhat. My area was 37C now 34C for tomorrow

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

That makes sense given the wind direction

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Ally Pally Snowman
22 June 2026 18:44:31

UKV should steady the ship!

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Yes quite widespread 40c on Friday in EA.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
22 June 2026 18:55:54
32.5 the high at Yeovilton today. 33.7 at Jersey airport. UKV 15Z today had 34 in the Yeovilton area.

Very much a forecast fail as it has just started raining here.

UKV does have some storms off the south coast tonight too.

Starting to get the feeling that temperatures are going to be much lower than we were talking about a few days ago, thanks to unforecast rain and cloud. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Rob K
22 June 2026 18:58:08

iPhone app only has a single 35C day on Wednesday. It’s going to be interesting to see which models are right because frankly these movements in the last twenty four hours have been crazy.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

From 37C this morning the iPhone app has gone down to a max of 34C for the entire spell here, some way west of London. Hot but by no means exceptional even for June. Met Office has gone down from 40C this morning to 38C now. Something has definitely changed for the cooler.

BTW France hit 43.0C today in Brive.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

HighPressureGloom
22 June 2026 19:03:07

From 37C this morning the iPhone app has gone down to a max of 34C for the entire spell here, some way west of London. Hot but by no means exceptional even for June. Met Office has gone down from 40C this morning to 38C now. Something has definitely changed for the cooler.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Cloud amounts? 

Matty H
22 June 2026 19:04:56

From 37C this morning the iPhone app has gone down to a max of 34C for the entire spell here, some way west of London. Hot but by no means exceptional even for June. Met Office has gone down from 40C this morning to 38C now. Something has definitely changed for the cooler.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Little change here

Tues - 35c

Weds - 38c

Thurs - 38c

one degree change all day and this is raw data, so to over-scrutinise it would be pointless 

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Heavy Weather 2013
22 June 2026 19:18:28

From 37C this morning the iPhone app has gone down to a max of 34C for the entire spell here, some way west of London. Hot but by no means exceptional even for June. Met Office has gone down from 40C this morning to 38C now. Something has definitely changed for the cooler.

BTW France hit 43.0C today in Brive.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Yep. Definitely not panning out the way I was expecting. The MCS has now developed into a massive blob of rain. Completely unforecast and will soak the ground. I think we will get the June record, but not sure we will get 100F from this spell now. 

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Hungry Tiger
22 June 2026 19:20:06

Little change here

Tues - 35c

Weds - 38c

Thurs - 38c

one degree change all day and this is raw data, so to over-scrutinise it would be pointless 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Matty, I think you guys in the West country are going to get hit the worst with this heat. 🙂🙁🙁

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Rob K
22 June 2026 19:21:56
Have to say that keeping the amber warning for heat in place for today was a complete joke when it was clear two days ago that it was not going to be that hot. Predictably the Met are getting a lot of stick for it on social media from those under the rain. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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