The Weather Outlook

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Jiries
22 June 2026 19:30:25
Reading your posts about thunderstorms or rain, why it happening in advance of the heatwave?  Normally it AFTER any heatwave not in advance break down.  
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2026 19:31:20

Have to say that keeping the amber warning for heat in place for today was a complete joke when it was clear two days ago that it was not going to be that hot. Predictably the Met are getting a lot of stick for it on social media from those under the rain. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

The red warning jinxed things. Illegal and unconstitutional rain.

The hot spell has been very much Jiriesed.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2026 19:33:24
Tomorrow ours has gone down from 34c to 33c but Thursday’s gone up from 38c to 39c and Friday’s gone up from 28c to 33c. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Ally Pally Snowman
22 June 2026 19:51:01
ECM 12z from tmrw

33c, 35c, 35c, 36c, 34c 

Not as hot but more prolonged 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
22 June 2026 19:56:43
I think we give too much credence to the models anyway - as I posted earlier, the UKV underestimated the actual 850mb temperatures (from the Camborne sounding at 11Z) by 4 degrees, just 9 hours out. And the Harmonie model, initiated at 17Z by which time the storms over the SW were in full swing, has not a drop of rain anywhere in the area!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Heavy Weather 2013
22 June 2026 20:00:59

ECM 12z from tmrw

33c, 35c, 35c, 36c, 34c 

Not as hot but more prolonged 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

In this trend continues we may not even get the June record!


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

scillydave
22 June 2026 20:04:16
There's often a lot of chat around high temperatures and dry ground in these sort of spells and there's undoubtedly a link however I don't think it's too much of a factor. Perhaps it accounts for a degree or 2 of difference.

Here in soggy South Wales the ground is fairly sodden - I have some puddles still in the back garden and yet today we reached 31c despite it being breezy and cloudy pretty much all day. It was also wet underfoot in the May spell and we hit over 32c then too.

These temperatures may not be remarkable for other parts of the UK but they are in this part of the world. The May spell had a temp that was in Cardiff's all time hottest top 5 days.

On a different note it also rained here briefly today and felt just like being in a Tropical Rainforest - stonkingly hot, humid and uncomfortable. 


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Ally Pally Snowman
22 June 2026 20:10:02

In this trend continues we may not even get the June record!

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

ECM 12z definitely underestimated the temps in France today by as much as 4c or 5c. 

Will be very interesting tmrw anything from 33c to 38c possible. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
22 June 2026 20:19:03

The red warning jinxed things. Illegal and unconstitutional rain.

The hot spell has been very much Jiriesed.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

I notice a lot of posts that they want to see the red. warning put up not amber or worry about why no warning, for me I never give a toss at all, as every time a warning come up like the snow it never materialized so better no warning needed.  Still dull and back to the unsettled cool cloudy spell type this evening.

Report of rain chucking down at Heathrow from one of the poster so likely game over now for any records for the SE.  

Hungry Tiger
22 June 2026 20:54:51
Raining here now in  S Cambridge.  

😵😵😵


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Bertwhistle
22 June 2026 21:20:18
Lot of  NIMBY bleating from south easterners tonight when 39 still looks like a poss in certain areas.

Look at the wind direction and try to understand why eg Cheltenham was the form horse on 3.8.90


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Ally Pally Snowman
22 June 2026 21:21:41
Latest forecast from the Met Office posted 4hrs ago on YouTube still going for 37c tmrw and 39c on Wednesday and Thursday. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jersey Phil
22 June 2026 21:27:08
Just to emphasise the extreme conditions, here in Jersey the next three nights are 22, 24, 24.  I know we do ‘well’ for tropical nights here but that is also crazy.  Rennes hit 39c today and Nantes at least 41c.  France is burning.  
St Johns, Jersey CI

125m asl

Jiries
22 June 2026 21:32:58

Latest forecast from the Met Office posted 4hrs ago on YouTube still going for 37c tmrw and 39c on Wednesday and Thursday. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

I wonder if this going to happen after lot of rain most places including SE that might effect it.  

Rob K
22 June 2026 22:04:40
Despite the watered down output there is still a chance we could get four 35C+ days in a row which I don’t think has ever happened before. Tomorrow was looking a cert for the June record at one point but it is quite unlikely now. Maybe will just scrape 35 somewhere though. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2026 22:37:30

I wonder if this going to happen after lot of rain most places including SE that might effect it.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Only a few spots of rain here most of which evaporated as it hit the gorund.


Kingston Upon Thames
The Beast from the East
23 June 2026 01:08:31

My silver birch tree has just been struck, less than 20 metres from my house. Scary as anything ever!

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Sorry to hear that. I think the lack of warnings about these storms is a huge fail from the authorities. An amateur like me could see the danger days ago


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

The Beast from the East
23 June 2026 01:44:48

ECM 12z definitely underestimated the temps in France today by as much as 4c or 5c. 

Will be very interesting tmrw anything from 33c to 38c possible. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

the longer range ECM keeps sustained heat for the south east at least, nothing crazy but 30c is now considered normal.

I remember as a kid in the 80s when hitting 30 was a major news event.  (cue clips of idiots trying to fry eggs on car bonnets)

Whilst we may miss out on record highs, a sustained spell is probably worse in terms of health consequences.  


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Bolty
23 June 2026 01:48:40
Interesting, the BBC Weather app has massively dropped the forecasted temperature IMBY for Thursday. Yesterday, both they and the Met Office were going for 37°C here. Now the Met is still going for that, whilst BBC Weather has dropped it to 32°C. They must be predicting a sea breeze picking up from the Irish Sea in the afternoon.

Either that or the models are overcooking the temperatures...


Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

Ally Pally Snowman
23 June 2026 03:45:02
Definitely a chance the June record doesn't fall now. Friday looks the best bet. Models massively underestimated the storms. Maybe Thursday in the West Country.  
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
23 June 2026 03:49:50

Definitely a chance the June record doesn't fall now. Friday looks the best bet. Models massively underestimated the storms. Maybe Thursday in the West Country.  

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Yes, a 0.001% chance! (IMO).

The June 76 record will fall, and it'll do so on several days. 40 is the one that's unlikely to go - the MetO assessed it as a 20% chance yesterday in one of their videos, and I suspect that'll have gone down a tad today. 

There's been a serious amount of water dumped from the storms (17mm here, and it'll be similar across swathes of the south), but equally well some areas will have missed it entirely. And the area covered by the heat dome / plume / whatever you want to call it is simply massive... there's no way out of getting some record-breaking temperatures IMO.


Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
23 June 2026 04:05:42

Yes, a 0.001% chance! (IMO).

The June 76 record will fall, and it'll do so on several days. 40 is the one that's unlikely to go - the MetO assessed it as a 20% chance yesterday in one of their videos, and I suspect that'll have gone down a tad today. 

There's been a serious amount of water dumped from the storms (17mm here, and it'll be similar across swathes of the south), but equally well some areas will have missed it entirely. And the area covered by the heat dome / plume / whatever you want to call it is simply massive... there's no way out of getting some record-breaking temperatures IMO.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Well GFS 0z , has 35c ,36c, 37c, 37c but smaller zone than previous runs. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Heavy Weather 2013
23 June 2026 04:05:52
The ground is soaked through after these hefty storms developed through London, so all the dry ground we had developed over the past few days is gone. Of course I slept through them so didn’t even get to enjoy that

Meto output for my location has changed considerably overnight

Tues: 34C

Wed: 36C

Thu: 34C

Fri: 37C

Sat: 31C

The June record will likely go, but I fear after all this wet ground, it will be very tough to get anywhere close to these numbers.


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Ally Pally Snowman
23 June 2026 04:11:41
Arpege 0z similar to GFS 

35c, 36c, 37c, 37c 

More widespread though


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Heavy Weather 2013
23 June 2026 04:15:17

Arpege 0z similar to GFS 

35c, 36c, 37c, 37c 

More widespread though

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Aperge of all the models has handled these temperatures appallingly. That’s a huge correction. 


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

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