The Weather Outlook

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Jiries
22 June 2026 19:30:25
Reading your posts about thunderstorms or rain, why it happening in advance of the heatwave?  Normally it AFTER any heatwave not in advance break down.  
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2026 19:31:20

Have to say that keeping the amber warning for heat in place for today was a complete joke when it was clear two days ago that it was not going to be that hot. Predictably the Met are getting a lot of stick for it on social media from those under the rain. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

The red warning jinxed things. Illegal and unconstitutional rain.

The hot spell has been very much Jiriesed.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2026 19:33:24
Tomorrow ours has gone down from 34c to 33c but Thursday’s gone up from 38c to 39c and Friday’s gone up from 28c to 33c. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Ally Pally Snowman
22 June 2026 19:51:01
ECM 12z from tmrw

33c, 35c, 35c, 36c, 34c 

Not as hot but more prolonged 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
22 June 2026 19:56:43
I think we give too much credence to the models anyway - as I posted earlier, the UKV underestimated the actual 850mb temperatures (from the Camborne sounding at 11Z) by 4 degrees, just 9 hours out. And the Harmonie model, initiated at 17Z by which time the storms over the SW were in full swing, has not a drop of rain anywhere in the area!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Heavy Weather 2013
22 June 2026 20:00:59

ECM 12z from tmrw

33c, 35c, 35c, 36c, 34c 

Not as hot but more prolonged 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

In this trend continues we may not even get the June record!

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

scillydave
22 June 2026 20:04:16
There's often a lot of chat around high temperatures and dry ground in these sort of spells and there's undoubtedly a link however I don't think it's too much of a factor. Perhaps it accounts for a degree or 2 of difference.

Here in soggy South Wales the ground is fairly sodden - I have some puddles still in the back garden and yet today we reached 31c despite it being breezy and cloudy pretty much all day. It was also wet underfoot in the May spell and we hit over 32c then too.

These temperatures may not be remarkable for other parts of the UK but they are in this part of the world. The May spell had a temp that was in Cardiff's all time hottest top 5 days.

On a different note it also rained here briefly today and felt just like being in a Tropical Rainforest - stonkingly hot, humid and uncomfortable. 

Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Ally Pally Snowman
22 June 2026 20:10:02

In this trend continues we may not even get the June record!

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

ECM 12z definitely underestimated the temps in France today by as much as 4c or 5c. 

Will be very interesting tmrw anything from 33c to 38c possible. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
22 June 2026 20:19:03

The red warning jinxed things. Illegal and unconstitutional rain.

The hot spell has been very much Jiriesed.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

I notice a lot of posts that they want to see the red. warning put up not amber or worry about why no warning, for me I never give a toss at all, as every time a warning come up like the snow it never materialized so better no warning needed.  Still dull and back to the unsettled cool cloudy spell type this evening.

Report of rain chucking down at Heathrow from one of the poster so likely game over now for any records for the SE.  

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