ECM 6z is about 4c too low for NW France today though.

The high-res models do seem to have moderated the output by 1 or 2 degrees today though. eg WRF only has 38 instead of 40-41.

Tomorrow will be fascinating we have a range from about 33c to 38c .

Even MetO app has moderated for tomorrow somewhat. My area was 37C now 34C for tomorrow

In fact I just checked for London City yesterday evening we had forecast 38C for tomorrow to 34C now. That’s a pretty huge correction. 

MetO app for here currently shows

Tuesday - 35c

Wednesday - 39c

Thursday - 39c

That'll perhaps be due to a bit more of an easterly component. The forecast for tomorrow here has gone from 38 with SE'lies to 37 with ESE'lies (as the day went on yesterday) to 34 with easterlies this morning to 31 with ENE'lies in this afternoon's forecast. No complaints here, it's dodging a bullet as far as I'm concerned! I think the 34 for Wednesday (with ENE'lies) and 37 on Thursday (with 25mph gusting easterlies) may be overcooked a bit, but we'll see. The sea is about 18C at the moment.

The 40s seem to have disappeared, I've searched a few places that were showing 40s and all are now 39 tops. it will be a case of wait and see though. Subtle changes in wind direction could make all the difference.

BTW the GFS 6Z run has 580dam thickness again, with 581 on the next gridpoint off the Isle of Wight. Will be interesting to see what the highest actual reading is. The 11Z Camborne sounding had 5914-185 = 5729 metres.

Edit: incidentally that sounding also had an 850mb temperature of 21C, which is 3-4C higher (depending which gridpoint you choose) than UKV modelled it, just 9 hours out.

Guess not. 

Nicely shows the east and west of London split in temperatures. Let's hope it continues.

It's the models blizzard algorithm - always fizzles out nearer the event. 😉

Wish that would happen round here. Atm, there's a very pleasant easterly breeze. 🙂🙂🙂

37 and 33 in Kent on the TWO charts. Friday actually hotter than Tuesday and Wednesday.

Not impossible Friday could be the hottest day at this rate.

It looks like having the heat furthest east which tends to favour hot urban stations, so yes. The heat is definitely being delayed a bit, at one stage today was looking like the peak of the heatwave and in fact it's barely hit 30C in London today but with a potential four 35C+ days to come, and perhaps two or even three of them over 100F.

iPhone app only has a single 35C day on Wednesday. It’s going to be interesting to see which models are right because frankly these movements in the last twenty four hours have been crazy.

The Friday one may well come off - we lose our general easterly flow by then, and as we know north Kent in particular tends to roast in a SW'ly. The only saving grace is that the upper plume is moving away eastwards so the effect might be lessened a bit. 

The easterlies (for today through to Thursday) incidentally are interesting as the upper flow up until Wednesday at least is SW'ly or westerly! The boundary layer is presumably being heavily influenced by onshore breezes generated by that exceptionally hot 850 air travelling over colder seas...

Sample chart: Wednesday morning from the GFS 12z, via MC:

The 850 chart has a slack WSW'ly or SW'ly over much of England:

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/97/14293/48_7UKxpr7.GIF 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/80/7807/3_308UKbzn1.GIF 

...whereas the surface flow is pretty much the opposite!

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/15/29202/45_602UKiuy5.GIF 

Humidity here we come which would make tomorrows heat unbearable.