The Weather Outlook

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NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2026 06:54:58

Had it installed in the bedrooms 3 years ago after 2022. It’s the theatre of a major weather event I enjoy, and the feeling of stepping out of an air-conditioned car into that soupy heat 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Yes I can understand getting out of a vehicle into the sticky heat and vice versa. Try Manila in the rainy season, though.  Makes the UK experience tame by comparison with added hydrocarbons and worse. One reason why malls are so popular there. 


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

roadrunnerajn
22 June 2026 07:04:02
One thing that the charts seem to find hard to forecast are toughs of developing activity. We are forecast to be dry, sunny with a fresh east breeze today but those thundery showers to the SW might change that if they drift further east.
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic. 80m asl
Brian Gaze
22 June 2026 07:06:26

03Z UKV has widespread 40-41 and a few 42s on Thursday. Brian may be able to confirm whether there are any 43s lurking in the full data set? There is a 38 as far north as Carlisle with 35-36 on the Scottish border and 40-41 into Wales. So potentially two national records there. 

We seem to be seeing a shift of Tuesday being a degree or two cooler and Thursday being the peak. 40 is looking within reach now. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Couldn't find a 43C unfortunately. There are quite a few 42Cs as you say, but with the sparse network I'd be very surprised to an official report this high regardless of whether it is reached somewhere or not.

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Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

saxtemp
22 June 2026 07:14:38

Couldn't find a 43C unfortunately. There are quite a few 42Cs as you say, but with the sparse network I'd be very surprised to an official report this high regardless of whether it is reached somewhere or not.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: vBrian Gaze 

42c In Flintshire and Wrexham. The Welsh June record is 33.7c

Rob K
22 June 2026 07:28:34

Couldn't find a 43C unfortunately. There are quite a few 42Cs as you say, but with the sparse network I'd be very surprised to an official report this high regardless of whether it is reached somewhere or not.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

If it was accurate then you would expect to se an official 41C though, or at least a high 40.x and therefore a new UK all-time record. There's a huge area of 40+.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Rob K
22 June 2026 07:36:00
The high res models do seem to be picking out Somerset as a hotspot today. The Arome zoom has a small area of 35C+ surrounded by 31C and Arpege and UKV both have 34C+. Yeovilton and Merryfield could be the hot spots today although neither is quite in the modelled hottest zone. There's a big area in north Somerset with no stations.

London actually looks relatively cool today.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Charmhills
22 June 2026 07:56:17
Met/app for here, 35c, 37c and 38c for Thursday.

After that, a gradual cool down to more pleasant conditions by the weekend to 24c.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

Ally Pally Snowman
22 June 2026 08:11:05
ECM 0z temps from today

30c, 35c, 38c, 37c, 35c, 29c 

Friday now looks like another scorchio day.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
22 June 2026 08:19:48

ECM 0z temps from today

30c, 35c, 38c, 37c, 35c, 29c 

Friday now looks like another scorchio day.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

A lot will depend on just how quickly the hot air clears east. The high res models have 35C being hit fairly early on and then cooling rapidly through the afternoon. But we have seen delays to the heat so a lot could change.

BTW a bit of historic trivia: the first day of the 1976 heatwave was 50 years ago today!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

johncs2016
22 June 2026 08:20:17
Looking back at the records, I can see that Edinburgh's highest ever June temperature is currently 27.8°C with that record going all the way back to 1982.

However, despite the fact that today started off with thick fog here in Edinburgh with rain forecast for at least some point in time during the rest of the day, the Met Office are going for a maximum of around 27°C for here as early as tomorrow.

Quite often, it tends to be warmer than what is actually forecast these days so if that forecast end up being correct, we would well end up at least challenging that record, if not actually beating that to give us our hottest June day on record (that would also give us our hottest day of this year so far if that was to happen).

Meanwhile, the highest recorded June minimum temperature is currently 17.2°C with that record being set much more recently in 2023. However, the Met Office are forecasting a minimum temperature of no lower than around 17°C for tomorrow night going into Wednesday (that would officially be tomorrow's minimum temperature due to each observation day starting and ending at 09:00 UTC).

This means that tomorrow's minimum temperature could well ending up challenging that record, if not actually beating it to give us our warmest June night on record. Putting all of that together, it is possible that Edinburgh could see both its hottest June day on record and its warmest June night on record all in the space of just 24 hours.

However, a lot will depend on the presence or absence of any North Sea influence. The records which I mentioned above are for the botanic gardens in Edinburgh which are always much cooler than Edinburgh Gogarbank at this time of the year whenever there is a wind from off the North Sea. This means that if there is a strong North Sea influence, it will probably end up being much cooler here as a result which would then scupper any chances of either of those records being broken.

However, the Met Office are also predicting that the wind won't be coming in from off the North Sea and this means that those records look very much on, especially since the highest temperatures in Edinburgh tend to be recorded at the botanic gardens when the wind is blowing offshore.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Brian Gaze
22 June 2026 08:22:44
Possibly worth keeping an eye on Friday as a potential dark horse.

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Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

bledur
22 June 2026 08:23:18
30c temps now set to spread to Parts of Scotland midweek but only for a day or so.

Peak heat in the south seems to be through a line Reading, Swindon, Hereford,on Thursday.

Cheltenham could be a Hot Spot once again.

Friday the heat has moved away apart from Eastern Counties although it might hang on longer .

Actually showing some heavy showers for this area today about 6 this evening.I will believe it when I see it🤔

Jiries
22 June 2026 08:48:45

Couldn't find a 43C unfortunately. There are quite a few 42Cs as you say, but with the sparse network I'd be very surprised to an official report this high regardless of whether it is reached somewhere or not.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

If this trrue then Birmingham being so close to Wales border might get a new record as they only got 37c back in 2022 while Nuneaton my app was showing 39C and 40.1c in my garden shade.  I am hoping to see 38C or above for here.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2026 09:01:50

Possibly worth keeping an eye on Friday as a potential dark horse.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Yes, a day for Brogdale or Mildenhall


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
22 June 2026 09:19:49
P27 on the GEFS 0Z is ridiculous: basically 1976 plus AGW. 30C every day from tomorrow to the end of the run (July 7).

29, 35, 38, 36, 34, 31, 33, 39, 35, 33, 36, 38, 36, 35, 33, 31

And that's just on the very low res temp charts.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Retron
22 June 2026 09:34:08
We have our red warning now - Reading, with two 40s on the raw MetO output, is right in the middle of it.

Further detail

During the heatwave expected to affect a large part of England and Wales this week, the highlighted area now looks increasingly likely to see a two to three day period where maximum temperatures in the shade exceed 37 Celsius, perhaps rising to 38 to 40 Celsius in some places. The heat will be accompanied by high humidity, exacerbating the potential for discomfort and health impacts, with very warm and humid night times also reducing the ability for people to recover overnight.

Significant disruption to daily life is likely and the public should take every effort to make precautions and adapt their daily routines where possible to cope with these levels of heat, which up to now have been extremely rare for the UK.


Leysdown, north Kent
noodle doodle
22 June 2026 09:36:22
Going to jersey on hols next week so was looking at likely temps

This week the metoffice is going for 40 on wednesday 😮 - https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/forecast/gbwxb1tp2#?date=2026-06-22 

Meanwhile xcweather (gfs) says 24 on the same day - https://xcweather.co.uk/forecast/st_helier 

That's a fairly ridiculous discrepancy no?

Retron
22 June 2026 09:38:16


Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
22 June 2026 09:40:58
Already 27C at Exeter airport.

Met Office auto output for here now has 40C for both Wed and Thur.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Retron
22 June 2026 09:45:29
Looks like the MetO website has crashed under the demand - getting 504 timeout errors now!
Leysdown, north Kent
Charmhills
22 June 2026 09:57:19
Yeah, same here.

Roll on Autumn.💨


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

BYF1
  • BYF1
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2026 10:06:01
Good to see Red warning is out. Good old fashioned 100f looks to be the threshold. I hope the water companies are prepared.
North downs, near Folkestone, 177m asl.
Matty H
22 June 2026 10:06:49
Bullseye!!!

An interesting week coming up 🔴


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Rob K
22 June 2026 10:26:58
Arpege 6Z has minimum temperatures of 30C in the Somerset area on Thursday morning, after highs of 41.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Quantum
22 June 2026 10:46:09

Arpege 6Z has minimum temperatures of 30C in the Somerset area on Thursday morning, after highs of 41.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I think its genuinely dangerous in the far eastern part of the South West region in particular. The government should be calling a COBRA meeting; its going to be the most extreme bit of weather we have seen in decades and there need to be contigency plans in place for this.

In a worst case scenario we could see something like 3 days in a row with  35/23 or worse, with one day of something like 40/28 or worse which would be considered dangerous in somewhere like India or the middle east, but in a country without widespread aircon its extremely serious and could result in deaths. 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

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