The Weather Outlook

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Rob K
19 June 2026 13:50:03

Does anybody know if the 850 temperatures represent approximately 1500m of altitude or 1500m above the ground? It makes a big difference- if it's the former, then it's no wonder 25+ plumes originate in Spain, where the northern Meseta has an average altitude over a large area of about half of this, so the 1500m temperatures would only be about 750m up. 

Similarly that P1 heat core starts in central France where there is ample ground above 1000m then shifts north and intensifies.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

It's approximately 1500m above sea level, but that varies quite a lot depending on both the sea level pressure and the temperature of the air.

Warmer air is less dense so a given pressure level will be higher above sea level (that's essentially what the "thickness" values measure - the 1000-500mb thickness is just the altitude difference between the 1000mb and 500mb pressure levels.

The colours on the pressure charts show the 500mb geopotential height, which is the height of the 500mb level above sea level. That will be higher if:

(a) the sea level pressure is higher, because you are starting from a higher pressure at the ground so it will take longer to reach 500mb

and/or

(b) the column of air is warmer, because it is less dense.

The same thing applies to the 850mb height. You can find the actual altitude of the 850mb level by looking at soundings, either real or modelled.

At the moment over the southern UK is about 1500m above sea level. Over central Spain it's about 1530m. In Tierra del Fuego it's about 1350m, as it is winter there...


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Rob K
19 June 2026 14:06:02
Back on topic, Writtle has hit 30.3C, so the first 30C of June and the 8th of the year.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Retron
19 June 2026 14:09:35

Back on topic, Writtle has hit 30.3C, so the first 30C of June and the 8th of the year.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I'd bet Brogdale has hit it too, but we won't know for a while. The 21C dewpoints at Shoeburyness, East Malling, Herstmonceux and Wattisham are quite noteworthy too. 


Leysdown, north Kent
Saint Snow
19 June 2026 14:53:20
Maxed at 23c (per the car) here today, with a lovely cooling breeze

After a sunny morning, it clouded up and we've already had the very odd spot of rain, with the skies looking really dark now. Forecast is for light rain on and off through the evening/night. It'll give a nice freshen-up before the warm spell's arrival.


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 June 2026 15:22:30

I'd bet Brogdale has hit it too, but we won't know for a while. The 21C dewpoints at Shoeburyness, East Malling, Herstmonceux and Wattisham are quite noteworthy too. 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

My vineyard site peaked at just under 28C suggesting the heat was more in central and West Kent than the East, so Brogdale may not get there today.

But as we effortlessly hit 30C again, funny to reflect that back in the day there were occasional years nowhere got to 30C all summer,  and now there are occasional years nowhere gets to 33C. In a couple of decades there will be occasional years nowhere manages 35C.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
19 June 2026 15:32:33
Arpege 12Z off and running with a 39C in Hampshire on Tuesday, and I think a few pixels of 46C in northern France.

We're not in Kansas any more.

UserPostedImage


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Retron
19 June 2026 15:35:26

My vineyard site peaked at just under 28C suggesting the heat was more in central and West Kent than the East, so Brogdale may not get there today.

But as we effortlessly hit 30C again, funny to reflect that back in the day there were occasional years nowhere got to 30C all summer,  and now there are occasional years nowhere gets to 33C. In a couple of decades there will be occasional years nowhere manages 35C.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Today's one of those cases where places north of the Downs (like Brogdale and indeed here) are amongst the warmest places in the country. I rue a SW'ly wind! I'm guessing your vineyard is south-facing, so you'd be on the cooler side. 


Leysdown, north Kent
Retron
19 June 2026 15:38:31

Arpege 12Z off and running with a 39C in Hampshire on Tuesday, and I think a few pixels of 46C in northern France.

We're not in Kansas any more.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

That actually has a labelled 46 in western France, and a couple of 40C pixels within the 39C isotherm over the UK. Open in new tab, zoom in and you'll see them.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/7/15682/arpegeuk_31_102_0meh0.png 

UserPostedImage

EDIT: And if that were to come off, the amber "extreme heat" warning would surely have to be bumped to a red!


Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
19 June 2026 15:46:10

That actually has a labelled 46 in western France, and a couple of 40C pixels within the 39C isotherm over the UK. Open in new tab, zoom in and you'll see them.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/7/15682/arpegeuk_31_102_0meh0.png 

UserPostedImage

EDIT: And if that were to come off, the amber "extreme heat" warning would surely have to be bumped to a red!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Yes I'd missed the 46C isotherm. So that would be a new French all-time record, and at least 4C added to the UK June record. It already feels pretty warm in my SW-facing home office - thermostat reading 28C, so it could get pretty toasty for work next week!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Retron
19 June 2026 15:48:08
FWIW not only does Arpege have 24C dewpoints here, it rustles up a parcel of 580dam thickness just inland from the south coast, east of the Isle of Wight. Bonkers!

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/29/12651/arpegeuk_17_99_0znf2.png 

UserPostedImage


Leysdown, north Kent
fairweather
19 June 2026 15:48:27

Absolutely bonkers. We used to debate if 20C 850s were possible, now nobody bats an eyelid. We've seen 25C (in 2022), but 30C so close by? I shudder at the thought of it. A sneak peak at a normal summer in 25 years' time, perhaps? Here's a closer look, and the T2Ms...

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/1/29918/gensfr_1_0_204gxp2.png 

UserPostedImage

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/97/10044/gensfr_1_4_204qlt1.png 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Retron 

And people that were climate change deniers and sadly not just them are now gleefully turning all their effort into encouraging accelerating it rather than doing what they can to attempt to attenuate it.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
19 June 2026 15:50:11

That 46C would equal the French national record - which was set in the far south of the country in 2019. To match it in Paris would be madness. It is at the very extreme end of the ensembles though!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Hey but let's celebrate "drill, drill" !


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
19 June 2026 15:52:33

Arpege 12Z off and running with a 39C in Hampshire on Tuesday, and I think a few pixels of 46C in northern France.

We're not in Kansas any more.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Wow!


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
fairweather
19 June 2026 15:54:43

I'd bet Brogdale has hit it too, but we won't know for a while. The 21C dewpoints at Shoeburyness, East Malling, Herstmonceux and Wattisham are quite noteworthy too. 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

31.3C here 3.50pm, usually pretty accurate wrt to official stations nearby.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Rob K
19 June 2026 15:58:54

31.3C here 3.50pm, usually pretty accurate wrt to official stations nearby.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Kent, Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk have been the hot spot today, 30.9 is the highest official reading I have seen (at Cavendish) but I am sure there are some 31s. I am not sure if Brogdale is still reporting tbh.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
19 June 2026 16:09:46
The extraordinary Arpege 12z has 33c , 35c, 39c for Sunday to Tuesday 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
19 June 2026 16:13:29

 I am not sure if Brogdale is still reporting tbh.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Looks like it might have gone, which is a blow - no reports since early March. That means the "hot zone" north of the Downs is now without representation, so we'll doubtless miss some notable maxima in years to come. (It also means we won't see just how much warming is going on down here either - Faversham, aka Brogdale, warmed by 1.5C from 61-90 to 91-20, for example).


Leysdown, north Kent
Heavy Weather 2013
19 June 2026 16:19:30

The extraordinary Arpege 12z has 33c , 35c, 39c for Sunday to Tuesday 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

It’s crazy, because this early peak, may actually be the first, lots of models toying with another peak after Wednesday / Thursday


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Ally Pally Snowman
19 June 2026 16:28:41

It’s crazy, because this early peak, may actually be the first, lots of models toying with another peak after Wednesday / Thursday

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Indeed,  GFS 12z.  Has gone insanely hot aswell. 

From Sunday. 

31c, 32c, 35c, 36c, 34c, 38c, 33c


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Heavy Weather 2013
19 June 2026 16:30:29

Indeed,  GFS 12z.  Has gone insanely hot aswell. 

From Sunday. 

31c, 32c, 35c, 36c, 34, 38c, 33c

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

My goodness. 


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Rob K
19 June 2026 16:46:50

Indeed,  GFS 12z.  Has gone insanely hot aswell. 

From Sunday. 

31c, 32c, 35c, 36c, 34c, 38c, 33c

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Thursday actually has a couple of 35C gridpoints too, so that's four straight days of 35C+. I don't think that has ever happened has it? 1976 and 1990 both managed three in a row.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Retron
19 June 2026 16:55:51
I've looked back at the GFS in the run up to that remarkable 2022 spell and one thing that stands out is that the 20C 850 isotherm affected the UK for around 2 and a half days, peaking as we know at 25, briefly.

The MetO 12z run (to take a random model run) is like a prolonged version of that - up it comes from the south (Monday noon), it bubbles up to the northern Midlands, the 24C isotherm moves in (Midnight Weds into Thursday), then the whole lot gets shunted eastwards - albeit lingering more than it did in 2022 (it's still covering eastern England on Friday noon).

Four days at least vs two and a half. IF that were to come off it would be a truly historic spell, and following on a month after another historic one in May... 

EDIT: The MetO peaks at 25C 850s, funnily enough in a similar area to 2022 too, just more widespread.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/met/12_132_uk_850_temperature.png 

UserPostedImage


Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
19 June 2026 16:59:48
I've seen reports suggesting next week as a whole could be the warmest ever recorded in the UK. Of course it will depend on how it is measured, e.g. single point, CET or UK. 
Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Retron
19 June 2026 17:14:37

I've seen reports suggesting next week as a whole could be the warmest ever recorded in the UK. Of course it will depend on how it is measured, e.g. single point, CET or UK. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Looking at e.g. the Heathrow gridpoint on the GFS you can see where that idea might come from!

Mind you, even here it's bonkers. Considering there would be an onshore breeze from the sea (currently 17C, goodness knows how high by next Friday!), I can't see how we'd get anywhere near 37... but the computer clearly thinks it's doable. 

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/fri.jpg 

UserPostedImage

Note the frankly brutal amount of time at or above 35C too - it's the "area under the curve" effect (much beloved of A-level maths students studying integration) and it's why adding a degree or two makes things much, much worse - as it pulls that curve upwards such that you endure much more heat for much longer. 

A protip for those who want record-breaking heat for whatever reason, keep an eye out for low dewpoints, i.e. below 10C and preferably below zero. That's what we saw in 2022 and it was part of the reason temperatures climbed as high as they did: dry air heats up more rapidly. There's an extra 35 minutes or so of daylight in southern England compared to the 19th July too, which will aid heating all the more.

(Can't believe I'm writing all this, considering I absolutely detest and loathe heat, but even I recognise a potentially historic event when I see one!)


Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
19 June 2026 17:27:38
Looking at the zoomable view of the Arpege 12Z run on Meteociel (https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegezoom.php?mode=131&x=4665.21&y=2649.53&ech=102&zoom=4 ) you can see the 40C near Brook in Surrey, also 38C in the Welsh borders (Welsh all time record ins 37.1C) and 46C around Niort in France which would be an all-time French record.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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