I saw mention on Twitter that the Met had forecast a 40% chance of the June record being broken on Monday but I can't find the source of that. UKV does have 35C on Monday.

Were there any amber warnings for heat in May?

I dont think they had a warning in May, but not sure. 

They didn’t have it in May - which makes this more interesting. I think a lot of apps take the average ensembles mean and I suspect that METO favour the upper end of the ensembles for early next week. I suspect some ninja updates on these app temps as we get closure. ECM also very hot 0z.

Reading the detail it may be the overnight temperatures that warrant the warning. The raw has 21C minimum in London on Monday and the iPhone app was saying 23C yesterday but has now dropped a degree.

GFS only has 31C on Monday and 34 on Tuesday, and actually has Wednesday warmer. Generally the GFS seems to be keeping temperatures much lower towards the end of next week despite very high 850s - quite a strong easterly flow and lots of cloud resulting in highs of 27-28C despite 850s of 18-20C.

That’s an upgrade on the 0z. Suite surely must be tightening up now.

AIGFS has a max of 30C. Presumably the robots need to work on their 2m temperature charts?

Match the past climate, get the past temperatures! They really need to bias the figures more to 2025 rather than 2000-ish.

I got considerable downvotes on the local rag's site for pointing out that June 2025 was warmer than June 1976 in Faversham (which is true, it was). Don't mess with people's memories! 😂

The MetO raw has 30 here now (was 32 for today, yesterday) and their text forecast says 32... could well be a 30+ day today still.

Already a few 28s across the southeast, I think this will be the 8th 30C of the year.

And talking of 30C... P1 of the 6Z GEFS has a fairly large patch of 30C air at 850mb just across the Channel in northern France. I don't think I have ever seen that so far north.

Absolutely bonkers. We used to debate if 20C 850s were possible, now nobody bats an eyelid. We've seen 25C (in 2022), but 30C so close by? I shudder at the thought of it. A sneak peak at a normal summer in 25 years' time, perhaps? Here's a closer look, and the T2Ms...

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/1/29918/gensfr_1_0_204gxp2.png 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/97/10044/gensfr_1_4_204qlt1.png 

46C in northern France and 41C in London.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/1_228_2mtmpmax.png 

Never mind the 20C isotherm - there is a 20C ANOMALY isotherm!

Dew point 17C

I'd say that the heatwave has begun. 

Starting Sunday this South Coast City is looking at 4 consecutive days of at least 30C which is noteworthy.. top forecasted temperature is so far only 32C but with night temps remaining in low 20'S it's going to hit hard.

After that I'm heading north to Edinburgh, be good to see some sunshine and 25 C up there next week. Heavy rain again today.

That 46C would equal the French national record - which was set in the far south of the country in 2019. To match it in Paris would be madness. It is at the very extreme end of the ensembles though!

Also, is that the first 41C modelled on an ensemble since 2022?

I assume its the strong easterly breeze? Further west and north, Wales and Ireland could see the highest temps. Even western scotland with the foehn effect

Not yet, but it's coming.

Remember for Hampshire, 3 consecutive days of 27°C + mark the start of a heatwave. 

I think so. We have had a few 40s this month. (And I am pretty sure there was a 42 and maybe even a 43 back in 2022?)

Similarly that P1 heat core starts in central France where there is ample ground above 1000m then shifts north and intensifies.

It is, quite literally, the temperature at 850hPa, and if you're up a mountain it could easily be at ground level (or even below!)