Only 3 locations are used. Stonyhurst, Pershore and Rothamsted. 

I wonder how many have drawn that from longer-range forecast model signals as opposed to climate trends or gut feeling?

I have a sense of déjà vu with the same warm-cool-warm(er) signal that was present in May, and emerging signs that the last part could in fact be notably hot.

14.6 to the 7th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average

0.9c above the 91 to 20 average

Definitely people are "playing on tilt" after what happened in May.

But with it not being especially cool now and a warm up starting at the weekend, who knows they may be proved right 

That's a third of the way through the month, the start of the month. That's not bad. Junes like 1989 and 1995 were worse and last year- the 5th hottest June on record- wasn't much different.

For it to only go up for the following week leaves just late June which is so much less likely to have cold nights. It would take a last third disaster to ruin my 16+ thoughts. It would also take a special (currently out of reliable timeframe) last third to get my 16.8!

Signals are wobbling but can you not feel the HP push starting to come into play?

Who would have thought that 2 heatwaves (both short) could be responsible for lifting this to 17- and the 5th warmest June in the record?

14.6 to the 8th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average

0.9c above the 91 to 20 average

14.3 to the 9th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average

0.6c above the 91 to 20 average

Oh dear! 

I've gone warmer I think every month - and sit close to the bottom of the league table. Because I've not gone warmer enough.

May was particularly galling.

So this month I've just muped an extra bit onto my already above-average forecast.

Next week could be a bit of a wolf in sheep's clothing, a bit warmer than average by day and more markedly so by night, raising the CET more than one might expect based on the daytime feel.

Or we might import some 'proper' heat from the south by the weekend, in which case the wolf will have thoroughly shed its disguise.

Hard to gauge the likelihood of that as forecast modelling has been poor lately, struggling with the highly abnormal situation in the Pacific and North America related to the emerging El Niño - the tropical Pacific SSTs are in places the warmest on record for the time of year. Historically such high-end El Niño development has favoured a UK summer that starts cool and wet then trends drier and warmer during June and July but at a pace that varies a lot between historical examples. It seems that mid-June (perhaps late June too) will see us in an awkward 'attempting to transition' phase.

I'd need above 18 for the rest of the month to be right.

14.0 to the 12th

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average

0.2c above on the 91 to 20 average

14.0 to the 13th

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average

0.2c above on the 91 to 20 average

Bang on average... will be all uphill from here I think. 17th consecutive above average month a dead cert, but by how much?

And does anyone know if this is the longest run of above average months ever? It feels like it must be.

Not yet Rob. 17 months including this month would equal Jan 23 - May 24, but not equal the 18 straight months from June 21 - Nov 22.

The overall CET trajectory would be extremely similar to that of May.

The absolute state of things.