The Weather Outlook

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Rob K
10 June 2026 12:12:37
GFS still like a dog with a bone, 6Z goes insanely hot - although actually the 2m temps aren't as high as the charts suggest.

AIFS 6Z looks fairly decent with HP taking up residence from Sunday although again the 2m temps look surprisingly low.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Rob K
11 June 2026 08:43:47
This thread had slunk off to page 2 in disgrace, and rightly so. Shockingly poor model performance all round. Even now we have a spread of 12C at 850mb on the GEFS ensembles at just 96 hours out, which equates to a 2m temp range in London from 16C to 29C as early as Sunday! 

By the end of the run the 2m temp range is from 13C to 35C.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

+1
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
11 June 2026 08:49:25
Four days ago the BBC pictorials were showing a run of wall-to-wall sunshine days beginning this Saturday. 

That's replaced with this. 

UserPostedImage 

Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

johncs2016
11 June 2026 10:11:55

This thread had slunk off to page 2 in disgrace, and rightly so. Shockingly poor model performance all round. Even now we have a spread of 12C at 850mb on the GEFS ensembles at just 96 hours out, which equates to a 2m temp range in London from 16C to 29C as early as Sunday! 

By the end of the run the 2m temp range is from 13C to 35C.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Any further posts on here though, then undoes that by bringing it back to the top of the list (that is how I bump a thread which I have created myself in order to prevent it from sliding further down the order and being forgotten about if I believe that thread is important in any way) which is what you have done just by submitting that post.

I do agree though that this thread does appear to have become a bit irrelevant now.

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

+1
cultman1
11 June 2026 10:29:23
It’s sadly completely irrelevant now with a blink and you will miss any warmth once Sunday / Monday passes . I do begin to wonder if summer 2026 will be mostly westerly driven with below par temperatures and scant periods of high pressure with the jet stream mostly well south of us 
Rob K
11 June 2026 10:51:02

It’s sadly completely irrelevant now with a blink and you will miss any warmth once Sunday / Monday passes . I do begin to wonder if summer 2026 will be mostly westerly driven with below par temperatures and scant periods of high pressure with the jet stream mostly well south of us 

Originally Posted by: cultman1 

Is that a "summer is over" post on June 11th? 🙂

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

+1
Bertwhistle
11 June 2026 14:28:12
As I mentioned on the MOD, the 12z GEFS has 14 members going for 30C+ on 21st and several more in the high 20s. Not certain but shouldn't be ignored. The likes of P2 and the Control of course are unlikely- but then so was the 35 in May GEM suggested against the tide.

It may well be that jet behaviour has interrupted, but not stopped, the incoming heat. 

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Bertwhistle
11 June 2026 14:29:48

Is that a "summer is over" post on June 11th? :)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Yep

Tove Jansson in morph. Had it last summer too.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

johncs2016
11 June 2026 14:34:34

It’s sadly completely irrelevant now with a blink and you will miss any warmth once Sunday / Monday passes . I do begin to wonder if summer 2026 will be mostly westerly driven with below par temperatures and scant periods of high pressure with the jet stream mostly well south of us 

Originally Posted by: cultman1 

With the developing possible super El-Nino event, I have always hinted that this summer might shape up to be one which is similar to the summer of 2015 but slightly modified by ongoing climate change to bring the overall temperatures closer to average instead of being below average.

That to me appears to be how this summer is shaping up and although there was a brief heat spike in the summer of 2015, it’s possible that we might have already had this year’s heat spike with that coming early this time at the end of May.

However, there is still a long way to go yet and ongoing climate change does make these heat spikes more likely to happen. With that in mind, I still wouldn’t be surprised if there was another heat spike at some point in time during this summer, even if there aren’t any signs of one just now.

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Bertwhistle
11 June 2026 14:44:38
As a reminder from long ago, James (Stormchaser) posted this last year.

Qu: " Recent forecast model predictions give a June CET estimate that could be in the hottest 3 on record. Considering it was running below the 1991-2020 average as of 11th, that's an impressive feat."

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Rob K
11 June 2026 19:41:30

With the developing possible super El-Nino event, I have always hinted that this summer might shape up to be one which is similar to the summer of 2015 but slightly modified by ongoing climate change to bring the overall temperatures closer to average instead of being below average.

That to me appears to be how this summer is shaping up and although there was a brief heat spike in the summer of 2015, it’s possible that we might have already had this year’s heat spike with that coming early this time at the end of May.

However, there is still a long way to go yet and ongoing climate change does make these heat spikes more likely to happen. With that in mind, I still wouldn’t be surprised if there was another heat spike at some point in time during this summer, even if there aren’t any signs of one just now.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

The charts keep hinting at the possibility of some serious heat (20C+ at 850mb). It seems fairly certain that the heat won't be far away, and any let-up in the jet stream near the UK should allow us to tap into it.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Devonian
11 June 2026 21:31:19

The charts keep hinting at the possibility of some serious heat (20C+ at 850mb). It seems fairly certain that the heat won't be far away, and any let-up in the jet stream near the UK should allow us to tap into it.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I don't think anyone would seriously wish to 'tap into' the kind of heat (45-48C) some model runs are predicting for two weeks hence over Iberia. It's only June.

Sadly, I think the indications still are this will be a very anomalously warm summer overall. Next year will be even more so. Beyond that? Don't look...

+1
Bertwhistle
12 June 2026 09:25:21

The charts keep hinting at the possibility of some serious heat (20C+ at 850mb). It seems fairly certain that the heat won't be far away, and any let-up in the jet stream near the UK should allow us to tap into it.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Still 14 GFS members going for 30+ as far out as 21st, with 9 going for 32+.

By contrast P4 has maxima of just 13° on that day in the SE.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

bledur
12 June 2026 17:41:38

As I mentioned on the MOD, the 12z GEFS has 14 members going for 30C+ on 21st and several more in the high 20s. Not certain but shouldn't be ignored. The likes of P2 and the Control of course are unlikely- but then so was the 35 in May GEM suggested against the tide.

It may well be that jet behaviour has interrupted, but not stopped, the incoming heat. 

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Is it just not down the the High centering further west than forecast this giving a NW feed that has put an end to next week's heatwave?

Bertwhistle
12 June 2026 17:47:37

Is it just not down the the High centering further west than forecast this giving a NW feed that has put an end to next week's heatwave?

Originally Posted by: bledur 

HP and jet position are complex bedfellows. I sometimes hear on BBC weather that the jet has e.g. 'steered north allowing an area of HP to develop here' and then 'because of HP the jet is forced north'...

Master and servant? I don't know, but I think the jet, driven by latitudinal thermal contrasts, has the shout.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

+1
bledur
12 June 2026 18:08:34

HP and jet position are complex bedfellows. I sometimes hear on BBC weather that the jet has e.g. 'steered north allowing an area of HP to develop here' and then 'because of HP the jet is forced north'...

Master and servant? I don't know, but I think the jet, driven by latitudinal thermal contrasts, has the shout.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Yes just seen BBC week ahead and it now shows the jet coming across the middle of the U.k with coolish weather to the North with rain and warmer to the south but with showers at the end of next week.

.Keeping them guessing😄

Hungry Tiger
12 June 2026 18:44:04

With the developing possible super El-Nino event, I have always hinted that this summer might shape up to be one which is similar to the summer of 2015 but slightly modified by ongoing climate change to bring the overall temperatures closer to average instead of being below average.

That to me appears to be how this summer is shaping up and although there was a brief heat spike in the summer of 2015, it’s possible that we might have already had this year’s heat spike with that coming early this time at the end of May.

However, there is still a long way to go yet and ongoing climate change does make these heat spikes more likely to happen. With that in mind, I still wouldn’t be surprised if there was another heat spike at some point in time during this summer, even if there aren’t any signs of one just now.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

🙂🙂🙂. There's plenty of time for one. 🙂🙂🙂

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Devonian
13 June 2026 07:24:52

HP and jet position are complex bedfellows. I sometimes hear on BBC weather that the jet has e.g. 'steered north allowing an area of HP to develop here' and then 'because of HP the jet is forced north'...

Master and servant? I don't know, but I think the jet, driven by latitudinal thermal contrasts, has the shout.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Yes, but what is driving/changing latitudinal thermal contrasts...

Brian Gaze
13 June 2026 11:24:53
For those who missed it.

UserPostedImage

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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+1
cultman1
13 June 2026 12:43:28
What are the chances of this temperature being reached or near to  in your opinion? 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 June 2026 13:59:15

What are the chances of this temperature being reached or near to  in your opinion? 

Originally Posted by: cultman1 

Quite good - it only needs the slightest of drifts from a super-hot France

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Bertwhistle
13 June 2026 18:03:44

Yes, but what is driving/changing latitudinal thermal contrasts...

Originally Posted by: Devonian 

Well an interesting question Dev. Through my earlier adult life I was instructed that the starkest temperature changes due to AGW would be in the arctic. This would suggest a reduction in latitudinal thermal contrast across mid latitudes. But I am beginning to wonder if this is right. 

Warming may, as has been explored in several scenarios, lead for a time to a substantial cooling in the N Atlantic for example. This could seriously change the jet's behaviour at certain times of the year, even in the short term.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Jiries
13 June 2026 20:03:23

For those who missed it.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Nice temperatures but I cannot be excited yet and remember the ground are so sodden now so need several weeks to dry out proper to get those temps, that why last month was successful to get to 35.2C over very dry ground.  

Devonian
14 June 2026 07:25:52

Well an interesting question Dev. Through my earlier adult life I was instructed that the starkest temperature changes due to AGW would be in the arctic. This would suggest a reduction in latitudinal thermal contrast across mid latitudes. But I am beginning to wonder if this is right. 

Warming may, as has been explored in several scenarios, lead for a time to a substantial cooling in the N Atlantic for example. This could seriously change the jet's behaviour at certain times of the year, even in the short term.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Indeed. But, we're seeing western being Europe super hot in recent summers, but not the east of Europe afaict. Is the cold blob promoting warming over western Europe? There does often see to be a slow moving low to our west, but it just stays there or moves away NE (damaging drought is still my worry this year, for the south at least) . Or are the persistent scorching summers we see over western Europe just how AGW is able to manifest itself? Perhaps one or the other imo.

But, other place are seeing scary anomalies yet there is only one blob of cold like the N Atlantic one.. So, perhaps something else its at play.

I fear for western Europe, it's nature can only take so much heat stress?

Brian Gaze
14 June 2026 16:59:19
GFS 12Z generating some heat.

UserPostedImage

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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