If I read your post this time 20 years ago, it would have filled me with dread what with me working in a tomato greenhouse. But these days I'm in a much more comfortable position to be able to enjoy Summer like MOST people (I know some people still loathe it), especially with my aching bones after a recent hallway and back yard makeover. The latest ECM outputs gladdens my heart, although the 12z GFS op is having a bit of a wobble so just have to see if the 18z brings back the warming up/high pressure trend. 

Not sure how dry it stayed under your gazebo but here in West Sussex both Dec, Jan and much of Feb were very wet. 

Jan:

‘England Southwest and South Wales collectively saw 156% of the long‑term average, while England Southeast and Central South was even wetter at 188%‘

Met office: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2026/january-2026-regional-weather-stats

GFS Op 0z - As per FAX above to Mon 18th but the LP does not develop but instead HP appears from the south with warm S-lies , the HP itself settling 1030mb N Sea Sat 23rd so the warm, even hot weather persists for that weekend. The HP moves on towards Iceland while a small disturbance runs past Cornwall 1010mb Tue 26th and on into Biscay by Fri 29th, with unsettled weather and E-lies for the south while the north is still mainly HP

ECM - similar to GFS until about Thu 21st when the HP fails to move north, taking up a position over the Low Countries with strong SW-lies for Scotland Sun 24th (charts beyond T +240 not downloading this morning). GEM - supports ECM.

AIFS - London,, maxima rising steadily from 12C now to 28C Mon 25th and only dropping a degree or two from there;  a little rain at first then something more significant Tue 19th and maybe some Thu 28th, dry in between. Edinburgh, again on a rising trend from 10C now to 23C Mon 25th; small amounts of rain to Sat 23rd then dry.

GEFS - mean temp from 5C below norm now to 5C above Sat 23rd with good ens agreement, cooling back to norm Fri 29th but wide spread of ens by this stage esp in N. Some rain to Tue 19th (heavy in the S on that date), then dry before some ens members show rain from Mon 25th onwards esp in SW; very little in the NE at any time.

GFS Op 0z - the last of the fronts on Tue 19th pushes on N-wards as a warm S-ly flow establishes between LP mid Atlantic and HP developing over the N Sea Wed 20th. This HP drifts W-wards but is still lying N of Scotland Sun 31st. Some disturbed weather from France gets close to the Channel Sun 24th but falls back again.

ECM - like GFS but HP takes a day longer to establish i.e. Thu 21st and then moves W-wards sooner, to Atlantic Mon 25th but still dominating Britain. This HP shrinks and by Fri 29th is allowing cooler air to approach from the NW, but still settled weather

AIFS - London, maxima rising steadily to 25C by Sat 23rd, then back to 20C, Rain at first esp Tue 19th, then dry, more rain and a cool day Fri 29th. Edinburgh, maxima 20C Sat 23rd, then 15C, rain heaviest on Tue 19th but bits and pieces at any time.

GEFS - mean temp 5C below norm now, rising to 5C above then slowly dropping back to norm Sat 30th with ens agreement breaking up. Rain at intervals to Tue 19th, Some runs have small amounts at different times after that, more likely in the W esp NW.

GFS Op 0z - takes a little longer to clear low pressure near Scotland but by Thu 21st HP 1025mb Germany extends to Britain and reinforces the S-ly. It doesn't last (much less HP around than previously shown) - on Sun 24th and Tue 26th LP 990mb crosses N Scotland and winds go round W/NW-ly. Then on Fri 29th LP drifts into S England from the continent, by Mon 1st linking to LP Iceland forming a broad trough for Britain.

ECM - agrees with GFS to Sat 23rd but the a ridge of HP develops and by Mon 25th extends from Mid Atlantic to Britain to Norway, and no sign of the LP 24th/26th. The ridge slowly sinks southwards and stays for a while over the south, fine and warm there but with light cooler W-lies for Scotland around Thu 28th, before moving north again and on Sat 30th 1040mb Shetland with E-lies in the Channel and a threat of LP from the south.

AIFS - London, temps rising to 25C Fri 22nd and after a re-set, back to 25C again Wed 27th' then a few days at 21C. Much less rain than shown yesterday; a little up to Tue 19th then very little. Edinburgh, maxima rising to a peak 22C Fri 22nd, then steadily declining to 15C Sat 30th; small amounts of rain on most days.

GEFS - temp profiles similar for England and Scotland relative to norm; from 4or 5C below norm now to 6 or 7C above by Sat 23rd with good ens agreement; then mean slowly drops to norm Sat 30th but with wide spread in ensemble, Rainfall pattern different  S & E compared to N & W. In the N & W small amounts of rain certain to Tue 19th, then some rain in most runs to Sat 30th; in the S again some rain to Tue 19th but then mostly dry but one or two runs with big rainfall spikes.

GFS Op  0z - starts the warm flow a day earlier than FAX, then the pressure rises over Britain in a ridge from mid-Atlantic to Norway retaining the warm air already imported until Thu 28th, albeit with LP nibbling at the southeast Mon 25th and the northwest Wed 27th. From then until Tue 2nd the HP withdraws SW-wards, still close enough to provide settled weather for Wales and SW England, but with shallow depressions running SE-wards from Iceland bringing cool and unsettled conditions to Scotland and NE England.

ECM - agrees with GFS to Tue 26th (date of last chart available, later dates not showing today), LP perhaps more affecting the south on 25th.

AIFS - London, about 15C now with some rain esp Tue 19th, then maxima rising quickly to 25C Fri 22nd and after that more slowly to 30C Sun 31st  and dry (but back to 18C with rain Mon 1st). Edinburgh, maxima rising from 12C now to 20C but unlike London, rain every day this week; then a dip in temps but rising to 22C Fri 29th and dry, before dropping back to 10C with rain on Sun 31st.

GEFS - from 3-4C below norm now to 6-7C above Sat 23rd, mean and ens members agreeing; slowly dropping back to norm Sun 31st and then a little below with ens members spreading out, Small but definite amounts of rain to Tue 19th, (Thu 21st in Scotland) some chance of occasional rain from a few ens members after that but generally dry in the south, but a greater chance in the north and quite persistent in NW Scotland.

Grid points will vary a tad, but on ours temperatures are reaching over 31C on the GEFS 00Z by 23 May.

GFS Op 0z - has the HP closer on Fri 22nd over Holland, but its development is delayed by that trough from the south Sat 23rd. Then the HP resumes strongly from the SW until Wed 27th, when it pulls back with W-lies developing. Eventually LP runs SE-wards from Iceland to S Norway 995 mb Sun 31st with cooler conditions from the NE, and by Wed 3rd Britain's weather is dictated by LP 1000mb S of Iceland.

ECM - agrees with GFS to 27th, but the HP removes to the NE 1030mb C Norway Thu 28th, allowing a shallow trough to move into Britain from the SW rather than from Iceland. [Maybe downloads for T+240 will appear later - they were missing yesterday]

AIFS - London, rain and cool for two days, then dry and maxima rising to 32C by Mon 25th (but coastal temps much cooler, 22C), falling back to 20C with some rain on Sun 31st. Edinburgh, also rain and cool at first, maxima 23C around Sun 24th, dipping to 17C before recovering to 23C Sun 31st then cooler with rain i.e. a day later than London

GEFS - In the S, mean temp rising to 6-7C above norm Fri 22nd, short dip with rain in the S on Sat, then continuing 5-6 C above norm to Fri 29th with low chance of rain. One by one the ens members then peel off cooler and by Mon 1st mean is back to norm, perhaps a little rain at that time. In the N, similar but not quite such elevated temps, dropping off a day or two sooner, and indeed slightly below norm from 1st with a greater chance of rain. 

Impressive 12Z AIFS update. 

My phone app is going from a max of 13C today to a max of 31C on day 10. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a rise like that within the 10 day forecast!

Reminiscent of the first week of June 1975 when we went from snow stopped play in a county cricket match on 2nd June to temperatures around 27C a few days later.