Lunch will now be indoors, though I had originally planned an al fresco affair.

Last year, this synoptic scenario happened several times. But either the rainbands fragmented/split or they missed. It looks like this time the predictions mean I'm really in the firing line. Hope something develops for you too Fairweather in due course.

It certainly arrived here, just after 4.30 (app said it would arrive by 5pm). From warm hazy sunshine to a cold wind and torrential rain in minutes.

I hope that wasn't it for our summer, but the next 10 days certainly looks fairly unsettled and none too warm.

Today is another case in point, a few drops of rain but not even enough to dampen the ground, let alone release petrichor. As usual the band of rain fragmented as it reached here, but again it's a "me" thing it seems. The radar for 18:25 is typical:

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/radar5.jpg 

Maybe some popup showers later this evening? As ever I'll not get my hopes up... 

(The MetO raw has gone from >95% chance of heavy rain for 7PM as of early afternoon for now to a 60% chance of light rain... and the reality is none at all. It is pretty cloudy, though, and that does make a change!)

EDIT: No rain symbols on the MetO raw after 9 PM tonight, although there are some periods of 30-40% precip chance over the coming days. Hmmm...

We might as well do our own forecasts! I predicted this earlier in the day or maybe even last night. It was obvious except for the forecasters clearly. We've had about 30 mins of light rain which amounted to 0.4mm. What happened to the torrential downpours and thunderstorms forecast for exactly our region - in fact their graphics showed us to be in the most favorable area? Of course because it has no doubt rained elsewhere there will be no mention of this despite being the driest part of the Country and most desperate for rain.

In the end there was a lucky direct hit from a pop-up shower here, around half eleven - peak rainfall rate of 34mm/hour, a total of 4.2mm. You can see from the cumulative 12-hour rainfall chart just how lucky that was!

To be fair the 12z suite did model it pretty well in the end, but it was one of those things where, as usual, the amount of rain in the SE was scaled back run after run for the preceding couple of days. 

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/12h.jpg 

GFS Op - As FAX; the LP on Thu is deeper at 990mb and then by Tue 12th moves S-wards to Biscay 1005mb while pressure rises broadly across Scotland 1025mb . Mild/warm-looking E/SE-lies for England, not lasting as that LP changes direction and links up with LP Scandinavia, switching winds to the NE before HP extends to the whole of Britain 1020mb Sat 16th. 

ECM - [ to Tue 12th, extension on 0900 download to come] - treats the LP on Thu differently, moving it E-wards to Norway and filling, while HP noses in from the SW. By Tue 12th there is a broad but fragile-looking ridge of HP across Britain, cool NW-lies for N Scotland, milder SE-lies for England.

AIFS - London, maxima 14-16C to Sun 17th ( a couple of degrees higher today and around Sat 9th), Traces of rain from a N-ly this week, more persistent and heavier on a S-ly next week. Edinburgh, maxima mostly 10-13C, cooler at 8C Sat 9th - Tue 12th and some quite heavy rain at this time - smaller amounts of rain on many other dates.

GEFS - mean temp and ens members in quite good agreement; temp dipping to 5C (less in W)  below norm Thu 7th, recovering quickly to norm and staying there or a little below to Sun 17th. A little rain at first, in England more likely to be persistent and heavy around Sun 10th but also present in several runs to the end of the period, in Scotland some rain on many days throughout but not especially heavy.

GFS Op 0z - both of the LPs above move N-wards, the Scottish one well out of the way while the Portuguese one becomes centred 1000mb SE England Mon 11th. The latter takes a slow tour of Britain, eventually becoming part of a deep LP S of Iceland 965mb Fri 15th. Britain then gets a couple of days of HP before the deep LP extends a trough SE-wards to Dover Tue 19th as it fills.

ECM - agrees with GFS on the Scottish LP but does not develop that near Portugal so that on Mon 11th it is still near Portugal with a ridge of HP from the west affecting Scotland (E-lies in the Channel  again). By Thu 14th it has moved N-wards and appears as a large shallow LP 995mb N Sea (No LP near Iceland as in GFS). This fills and moves E-wards; HP then briefly shows its hand from the west but is  pushed away by LP running  SE to Faeroes 1000mb Tue 19th (but not affecting the S as much as the GFS one)

AIFS - London, maxima from 13-15C now to 19C Sat 9th and dry, then dropping to 10C Wed 13th before recovering a little, frequent and often heavy rain from Sun 10th. Edinburgh, mostly around 13C to Fri 9th, then dropping to 7C Wed 13th but back to 13C Mon 18th; traces of rain at first, but persistent though not very heavy from Fri 9th.

GEFS -  mean temp with good ens support not far from norm through to Wed 20th (a little milder now and in the S around Sun 10th, otherwise a little cooler). Rain in various runs on many dys, generally likely and occasionally heavy w/b Sun 10th. 

Yes, I got a hit from one over me that gave me 2.1mm - making my May total of 2.8mm grater than the whole of April!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/uk-rainfall-radar.aspx  ).

GFS Op 0z - like FAX, but the centre of the  LP in Biscay has already moved N to Britain later on Sunday, not just the troughs circulating round it. It continues N-wards and on Tue 12th has deepened 980mb NW Scotland, and a trough in its circulation develops as an LP in its own right 1000mb western Channel Thu 14th. A ridge of HP from the Azores puts an end to this disturbed spell reaching France 1025mb Mon 18thand moving to the Channel Wed 20th - strong SW-lies at first, dropping light.

ECM - like GFS for the first week, but moving the LP from Biscay on to Norway  rather than Scotland Tue 12th without much deepening but producing N-lies on that date. These fade away as the LP over Biscay develops (though it arises out of the N-ly rather than, as in GFS, approaching from the Atlantic). That LP moves north Thu 14th and  ambles around N France and S England as a shallow LP area ca 1005mb over the weekend, moving away SW-wards as HP 1030mb establishes over Shetland/Faeroes Tue 19th, with E-lies for England.

A rather different treatment of the HP at the end of the run in the above two models.

AIFS - London, maxima rising to 18C Sat 9th, and dry until then; cooler 14 -15C with rain until Wed 13th, cooler still 12-14C for a few days to Sat 16th with more rain before gradually getting warmer and drying up. Edinburgh, again reaching a peak on Sat 9th but only 14C, then 8-11C through to Sat 16th with some rain mostly at first during this time, more rain as it warms to 13C on Mon 18th.

GEFS - mean temp a few degrees below norm until the weekend then a milder spell around Sun 10th before dropping to a degree or two below norm through to Thu 21st - quite good ens agreement but op (cold) and control (warm) runs appear as opposing outliers from Mon 18th in the south, other way round in the north! In the S, rain most likely and heaviest around Mon 11th, mostly dry until then, small amounts of rain continuing after the 11th in most runs to the end of the period - in the N & W rain more persistent after 11th but not outstanding peaks.

GFS Op 0z - agrees with the FAX outlook, and goes further; Mon 11th all three systems link up into a general trough of low pressure from N Norway to N Spain (individual mini-centres mid-Norway, Hebrides and Straits of Dover). This shrinks from both ends but remains in place with the main centre being 1000mb near the Channel until Sat 16th. This LP is displaced by HP building from the SW to Scotland; the LP itself moves to the Balkans but only on Fri 22nd does the last of its NE-ly influence disappear from SE England.

ECM - somewhat like GFS but with that trough of low pressure lying a bit further east on the other side of the N Sea and interrupted by a brief rise of pressure Wed 13th. By Sat 16th it has largely filled, more so than shown on GFS. After that, quite a difference from GFS as LP moves down across Scotland from the NW, and eventually into N England by Tue 19th, displacing the HP which appeared there rather briefly.

AIFS - London, maxima rising to 20C Sat 9th, down to 12C  Mon 11th,  slowly  increasing to 25C Wed 20th. Very small amounts of rain from time to  time. Edinburgh, maxima 10-13C but again, a sharp rise at the end, to 20C; slightly more rain at intervals but still not a lot.

GEFS - mean well supported by ens members, cool now, mild (4C above norm) around Sun 10th, cool again (3cd below ) 14th, rising slowly to norm Thu 21st, small amounts of rain in one ens member or another from Mon 11th. Scotland misses out on the mild spell, temp only rising to norm between the cooler periods, and rain more likely to be persistent, as well as (in the NW) heavier.

The latest GFS ensembles show absolutely no signs of anything all that warm coming up here even right up until the extended range and the 2m temperature anomaly charts which I've seen are all looking firmly below.

From all of that, you would actually find it hard to believe that we're only a few weeks away from what should be the start of the meteorological summer. From a climate change perspective, it makes a very welcome change to actually see some cooler weather but I would personally much rather be getting that colder weather in the winter, rather than right now for the reason which I've just mentioned.

If that does off, the question which will then be asked is where on Earth was that colder weather in the winter when we were actually looking for it?😢

From my perspective, this spring has felt more 'normal' than for quite a few years. Cool days and plenty of chilly nights. Pretty dry admittedly. 

At the moment, I would say that it's starting to look a bit 2015-esque because there is a very strong suggestion that we are about to head into quite a big El Nino event and in the past, that has tended to not bode too well for the summer which comes immediately before that. 2015 is a very good example of that because there was the super El Nino event at the end of that year which is thought to have led to us experiencing our mildest December on record.

However, the summer which came before that was cool and disappointing overall in terms of the temperatures with only the odd isolated heat spike down south (that briefly pushed the temperature down there above 30°C for a day or so) although we didn't really get a massive amount of rain in that summer.

Another thing which I can remember about that particular summer is the cold blob in the mid-Atlantic which was largely blamed for us having that cool summer and I am noticing that as we get more towards that El Nino event in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, cold waters are once again gathering in that same part of the mid-Altantic as it did back in 2015.

GFS Op 0z - continues where FAX left off. The LP near Portugal slowly fills and ceases to affect British weather, and from Mon 11th a series of  LPs move in from the NW - that on Monday mentioned above, Thu 14th 995mb northern N Sea, Fri 15th 995mb Brittany (the last persisting over the Low Countries and bringing NE-lies), Tue 19th 1010mb English Channel - a couple of days of HP from the west - and a final LP 995mb N Scotland Sat 23rd. All these LPs bring cool conditions but none look active enough to be supplying more than showery rain.

ECM - is more dominated by HP from the Atlantic, suppressing the Portuguese LP, and extending far enough over Britain to prevent LPs running through - but not far enough to prevent cool air moving down on N/NW-lies, so in the end much like GFS but with lower chance of showers. The last chart at 0800 shows an area of HP breaking away from the Atlantic Sun 17th, moving to Belgium 1020mb and extending to cover at least England [ - suspense while waiting for 0900 download - ] The HP doesn't last, moving on to Scandinavia, while LPs from N and S place Britain in a col Tue 19th, eventually with the LPs merging to 1000mb N Germany Fri 22nd  with yet more N-lies for Britain.

AIFS - London, temps peaking at about 19C Sat 9th and Tue 12th, and dry; then from Fri 15th onwards 13-15C with small amounts of rain. Edinburgh, 10-13C , with small amounts of rain throughout perhaps a little heavier in week 2

GEFS - cool now, mean temp  slowly increasing to norm over the next two weeks (bump of mildness for the south this weekend in the north only reaching norm) with good ens support, rather small amounts of rain in one run or another on most days after Sun 10th, starting a little earlier in the west

I've alluded to this in another thread with a consensus of sorts (DEW and myself) that the official forecasters have yet to understand the mechanisms behind these synoptics. I'd love to know why these forecasts of rain a few days out invariably get downgraded. There has to be a reason or reasons, yet in spite of all the data collected last year with similar events and in years past, we seem none the wiser as to what's actually going on above us. In this particular situation at least. Other synoptics, they seem to have almost nailed on a week or so correctly in advance. It's an interesting study I would have thought for a professional in this field. 

GFS Op 0z - takes the LP from Iceland above and brings it S-wards to the N Sea off Durham 995mb Wed 13th initiating a period of cool N-ly weather, first with that trough in the N Sea, then with another trough moving S to Wales 1005mb Sun 17th, which slowly drifts into C Europe while the following N-lies are intensified Fri 22nd by a ridge of HP developing to the west of Britain. That ridge finally moves to cover Britain Sun 24th.

ECM - general pattern like GFS but deepens the LP centres (on a slightly delayed timetable) so perhaps some more active weather. Thus the LP shown in GFS Wed 15th gets to Dover 995mb Fri 17th instead of moving E-wards; that on Sun 17th appears 985 mb N Ireland. This model then differs from GFS, as that last LP fills and withdraws W-wards Fri 22nd, followed by a rise of HP 1020b in the Baltic with S-lies developing.

AIFS - London, maxima 20C tomorrow followed by a period with maxima 13-15C, warming a little after Wed 20th; significant rain from Fri 15th to Tue 19th, small amounts afterwards. Edinburgh, maxima mostly 11-13C, again warming later; small amounts of rain throughout heavier after Mon 18th.

GEFS - mean temps with good ens support near norm or a little above (esp in S) at first, then cool (4C below norm) for a week before slowly recovering to norm by Thu 21st. Small amounts of rain most likely after Fri 15th in S, a day or two earlier in N, heavier at times in the SW

1. ECM and UKV forecasts out to T+120 are worth a look.

2. GFS / GEFS precipitation forecasts for the UK are often quite poor. With the GEFS, I don't think it's worth spending too much time focusing on the amounts at longer ranges, but they do have some value in identifying the "big picture", for example, whether it will be turning wetter or drier.

3. The ECMWF IFS ensemble is probably the best freely available tool for forecasting medium-range precipitation amounts in the UK.

How the data is presented is another question. For point 1, the simple grid point-based charts are probably the best.

For 2 and 3, I like either the data tables and the box and whisker charts. However, a lot of people seem to stick to the graphs, perhaps because they're more familiar and widely available. 

I much prefer the box version as it gives an easier picture of the probabilities. Either there’s not much rainfall on offer for London next week, compared to what’s now needed.