https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Topics/10-The%20Forum%20Arms 

Unfortunately, you are beholden to the whims of the Atlantic as we are to the North Sea. It seems that makes cloud predictions for these areas more difficult because that is one of the areas they get wrong the most here.

GFS Op 0z - continuing from FAX, the HPs at each side of the col weaken leaving Britain in an area of  nondescript slack pressure through to Wed 6th, when LP to the SW develops. This merges with LP on the Atlantic with S-lies for Britain, basically lasting to Wed 13th but with the Atlantic LP pushing troughs into Britain Thu 7th (only for the west) and Mon 11th (for the north) before re-forming mid Atlantic.

ECM - the LP to the SW develops out of the col as early as Sun 3rd and while pressure is slack for a day or two, HP resumes and covers Britain 1025mb Wed 6th [I'm going out before the 0900 download, may add this after lunch)

AIFS - London, maxima mostly around 15C but warm interludes today, around Thu 30th, and after Sat 9th. A little rain today and around Mon 4th. Edinburgh, similar maxima pattern to London but with a baseline of 10C, a little rain today, rather more on Sat/Sun 2nd/3rd, and then a little Wed 6th. Ground frosts still possible in both locations esp  Sat 9th.

GEFS - a dip in temp tomorrow but otherwise 2  or 3 degrees above norm to Sun 3rd, then mean temp with quite good ens support near norm to Wed 13th, maybe slightly above for S, slightly below for N. Small amounts of rain in E today, in SW Thu 30th, then an increasing number of runs with at least some rain from Sun 3rd onwards but no consistent pattern for different locations.

The slack pressure scenario obviously makes detailed local forecasts difficult

last summer was dry but the previous 2 weren't. 

That has some heavy rain here overnight. I'll take that with a pinch of salt, although both whatever the MetO raw uses these days and the GFS show some useable rain - albeit GFS has gradually downgraded the amounts as each successive run has come out today.

(I've also mowed the lawn on the strength of the forecasts. Given there's only been 2.5 mm in the last month, it could be its death knell for the year if it doesn't rain - so I hope the models are right!)

It really is odd just how often that happens these days, it wasn't a "thing" 10+ years ago.

EDIT: And after a sunny, breezy and increasingly warm few days down here it seems the next chance for rain is the weekend - the MetO raw has several 40% chances, the 18z GFS had 13mm of rain over the two days. Will we see any? As usual, I'll not get my hopes up!

Warmer but breezy on Thursday with plenty of sunshine. Friday will see areas of cloud, sunny breaks and showers moving in from the southwest, some heavy at times, with the odd rumble of thunder. Saturday will be unsettled, with heavy showers and a risk of lightning.

Thunder and lightning, now that's notable. I wonder if this summer will be the one where  I'll be praying for the stuff to stop. 

GFS Op 0z - with the HP on Fri 1st  off to the east and another HP arising on the Atlantic, Britain lies in a col of slack LP to Wed 6th. Then the Atlantic HP weakens and LP approaches Britain from the west with a mostly S-ly airflow to Thu 14th; this LP advances and retreats and at its closest to Britain is Sat 9th St Kilda and again 995mb Cornwall Mon 11th.

ECM - the depression Fri 1st is deeper with SE-ly gales for the SW of Britain but they die away to give the same col as per GFS. Unlike GFS from Wed 6th, pressure rises over Scotland 1030mb by Fri 8th and keeps the Atlantic LP at bay, though near enough to generate the S-lies referred to above The pressure rise over Scotland slips NE-wards to Norway 1025mb Wed 13th, and like GFS, LP approaches from the Atlantic plus in this model linking to LP 1000mb Biscay moving N-wards.

AIFS - London, maxima rising to 23C Fri 1st, then mostly around 15-16C but even cooler 13C for the weekend of Sat 9th. Trace of rain today and Sun 3rd (Note, GFS predicts wetter on Fri 1st). Edinburgh, similar trend in temp but ca 4C cooler. Rain Sat 2nd and traces on and off thereafter.

GEFS - mean temp mild to a peak Fri 1st (6C above norm in S), dropping back by Mon 4th and staying near norm to Thu 14th; good ens agreement for the first week, then the usual spread of ens members developing, Rain present in  small amounts in one run or another on most days from Sun 3rd  (Fri 1st in SW) onwards , occasional runs show heavier in north and increasingly likely around Wed 13th.

So what happened to that big blob of yellow and red over me - was that a heat wave? Because it definitely wasn't rain. One for the bin!

It seems odd that it is such a "thing" that they don't factor it into the forecasts. In that scenario my friend told me "it's going to rain tonight" and I just said "it won't!"

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/maps-and-charts/rainfall-radar-forecast-map 

should give you hope - the early hours of Sunday

GFS Op - compared to FAX, keeps pressure higher over the N Sea to start with so strong SE-lies to Fri 1st before a general drop in pressure for Britain and the LP forming in Biscay 1010mb Sun 3rd. This LP gets drawn into the circulation of a depression 985mb Norwegian Sea Wed 6th with N-lies for the east coast. These are displaced as an Atlantic LP approaches from the west and stays close to the west coast to Fri 15th with troughs extending into Britain from time to time - Sat 9th W Scotland, Mon 11th SW Ireland, Fri 15th Scotland again but also towards Cornwall while HP over the Baltic prevent further E-ward progress.

ECM - Differs from GFS from Wed 6th as the depression in the Norwegian Sea fills and a weak ridge of HP moves up from the SW with 1025mb covering Britain on Sat 9th.  For a while this links to HP from Iceland but in the last chart, Thu 14th LP from the SW has reached Cornwall 1000mb.

AIFS - maxima rising to 25C Fri 1st before a decline to 10C Fri 8th, recovering slowly from there. Significant rain from Sun 3rd for a week, traces after that. Edinburgh, same temp pattern but rising only to 18C an dropping to 6C, rain on most days Sun 3rd to Tue 12th.

GEFS - mean temp with good ens support rising to 3 or 4 C above norm Fri 1st, dropping to 5C below norm Wed 6th, recovering to norm Mon 10th. Rain around Sun 3rd, a drier spell in the south esp SW for a few days, but persistent in the north, and heavier everywhere from Mon 10th, a few runs with big totals in the SE later on

It tracked just to the west of me and fizzled as it reached the London area. I recorded 0mm, but a number of locations to the north and west reported between 5mm and 15mm or thereabouts.

GFS Op 0z - taking over from where FAX leaves off - the N-lies though weak persist to Wed 6th, before a new LP 1000mb slides SE-wards past Cornwall Fri 8th reviving a NE-ly flow, slowly backing N-ly between HP on Atlantic  and LP 990mb Baltic, persisting to Sat 16th (but a trough embedded in the flow perhaps adding some disturbed weather to E Scotland Thu 14th)

ECM -  like GFS at first but HP, not LP, moves into Britain from the Atlantic on Fri 8th 1025mb , with LP threatening to move N from Spain. The latter wins as a large but flabby LP forms SW of Ireland 985mb Tue 12th, not immediately affecting Britain but turning the winds into a humid S-ly unlike GFS. By Fri 15th, it's indeterminate with Britain in a shallow trough between this LP and the one shown by GFS in Scandinavia.

AIFS - London, fine and sunny with maxima near 20C to Sat 2nd, then dropping to 15C (a degree or two even cooler around Fri 8th) with rain Sun 3rd and Tue 12th, not  entirely dry at other times. Edinburgh, peak on Sat 2nd at 17C, then the cooler period closer to 10C. Rain less heavy but quite persistent  from Sun 2nd onwards.

GEFS -  a maximum of 5C above norm Fri 1st declining steadily to 5C (and more down the E coast) below Fri 8th, gradually returning to norm a week later, with ens members mostly agreeing. Some rain in most runs on most days from Sun 3rd , not large amounts, perhaps a little drier around the 8th but heavier in the north after that date.

GFS Op 0z - agrees with FAX; then from Thu 7th the N-lies stall as LP slowly moves up from the SW reaching across S England 995mb Mon 11th. This continues to move NE-wards and is replaced by another LP from the SW, to the Irish Sea 1000mb Thu 14th. Finally, something much more vigorous S of Iceland 975mb Sun 17th with strong SW-lies for all, warm in the S but cold in the N.

ECM - begins to diverge from GFS from Thu 7th as the LP from the SW stops at Ireland before changing direction and moving SE-wards to N Spain 1005 mb Mon 11th. At that time pressure rises over Scotland and there are quite strong E-lies for England. However this HP retreats to the Atlantiic allowing N-lies, quite strong at first, to develop and persist to Sat 16th, looking very different from GFS at this stage.

AIFS - London, warm today and tomorrow (20C +) , then cool (15C or less) to Fri 8th, recovering uncertainly (17-19C) through to Fri 15th; rain on many days, heaviest Sun 3rd, Sun 10th and Wed 13th. Edinburgh, the same three temp phases as London but cooler (15-18C, 9-11C and 12-14C respectively). A little rain every day to Wed 13th, then heavy and persistent to Fri 15th  (total ca 30mm) with temp dropping to 7C.

GEFS - mean temp with good ens support, sliding from 5C above norm now to 5C below (7C below in the north) Thu 7th,slowly recovering but still below norm Sun 17th. Some rain this weekend then small amounts of rain on many days, something heavier likely around  midweek Wed.13th, occasional instances of big totals on NE coast but not in every run..

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/maps-and-charts/rainfall-radar-forecast-map#?model=ukmo-ukv&layer=rainfall-rate&bbox= [[49.535904623364964,-6.416566631114196],[53.008173629757195,2.394468525135825]]

GFS Op 0z - Agrees with FAX; the LP near Cornwall goes on to deepen as a trough 1005mb off the W of Ireland Fri 8th slipping S-wards to N Portugal 995mb Mon 11th and beginning to bring back some milder air from the Continent. That LP fills over Biscay only to be followed by LP 985mb Rockall Fri 15th with broad trough to N England, later moving to N Scotland, and then a more active depression 985mb Donegal Mon 18th.

ECM - the general LP over the next few days resolves into a depression 1000mb Western Isles, not Cornwall, and it moves E-wards to the N Sea Mon 11th (no LP as such near Portugal, compare GFS, though it trails a trough in that direction). This LP then reverses direction and bumbles around Ireland and England, eventually moving off to Denmark 995mb Sun 17th, generally looking cool and wet.

AIFS - London, maxima highest today at 20C and next weekend at 18C, only 15 C between these dates and much cooler at 13C after that weekend, rain on many days, perhaps a drier slot Fri/Sat 8th/9th. Edinburgh, maxima 15C today and Monday, declining to 7C Mon 10th before recovering but only to 10C. Rain on most days, dry slots Mon 4th and Tue 12th

GEFS - mean temps down to norm by Tue 5th, then a couple of degrees below norm through to Mon 17th with good ens agreement (in Scotland 3 or 4C below norm immediately after the 5th). Rain on most days; chance of driest Fri 8th and wettest Tue 11th (in N England also heavy tomorrow 3rd). (Note, disagrees with AIFS for Scotland)