The ICON12Z has a secondary low develop on the front that somehow manages to start to bring back the continental airmass on sunday evening, and turn the rain back to snow in E Yorkshire, Lincs and Norfolk.

So at a lead time of T+54h the models somehow open up the slide hunt again?!

I'm now convinced that low laying areas coastal areas such as where I am has completely lost the ability to produce proper snowy events no matter what is the set up all due to a warming up trend.

I suspect quite a large area will see at least some flakes, even if in the form of sleet rather than snow.

Tonight:

This evening cloud thickens in the west, while localised frost develops across eastern areas where some brief clear spells could occur. Overnight outbreaks of rain and strengthening winds spread east. Minimum temperature -1 °C.

Sunday:

Rain, often heavy, and strong coastal winds gradually clear east and southeast Kent by mid-afternoon. Dry and brighter conditions follow, before a band of heavy showers quickly moves east. Maximum temperature 12 °C.

https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/archives/2026021406/icon-1-120.png?6 

Happy to swap places with anyone who has dry and mild 

To be fair - it was all a bit like that about the precip on Sunday here   - and then we had 4 hours of heavy snow and 2“ on the ground, at just 28m above sea level!! 

After Sunday’s unexpected blizzard, Anything  can seemingly happen from quite marginal situations if the conditions are right. The lack of wind and heavy precip’ obvs made a difference here. 

Yup, you were jammy - that hasn't happened here since the 90s, but consider it a "5 numbers on the lottery" type of thing and you won't be far wrong!

In the end the forecast you quoted just ended up as pure rain here, so the humans beat the computers. I note this morning that Wednesday's potential fun has been kicked away too, with the models overnight now showing 4C and rain down here instead of 1C and sleet - absolutely typical, of course, and I doubt things will flip back again in the next 24 hours either. It seems the initial snow on Wednesday will be too far south, but the snow later in the day will be too far north, as everything's shifted that much further north in the evening. Again, absolutely typical.

Spring proper seriously couldn't come a moment sooner.

We also had a few splodges of sleet for a time last night. That likely concludes business as far as the meteorological winter is concerned. 

Northern Ireland could get hammered, I'm amazed they aren't covered by a warning.

Snow showers will be widespread to low levels first thing tommorow morning in the north (probably Teesside northwards). It will likely turn to rain after around 10:30am but it will still be cold enough for anything heavy (think >8mm/h rain equivalent) to easily fall as snow all day.

There is also a small chance the lowest daily April maxima is at risk, if the snow arrives at the right time it could peg the temperatures back in that NW corner to below freezing. Beating -1.1C (the current record) will be tough though, evaporative cooling can get you to 0C or just above, but struggles to go much below that. The airmass is cold though, even if the record doesn't fall it will likely be the coldest April day in 100 years for parts of that NW corner.

Fri 3rd into Sat 4th: Inverness 28, Glasgow 15

and a separate pulse from a deeper LP

Sun 5th: Inverness 32, Glasgow 29, Aberdeen 18, Edinburgh 17, Newcastle 12

Storm Dave appears to relate to the SECOND of these two events