??? I'm not seeing any signs of deep cold on the GFS (or any other output to be honest) Just looks like a continuation of the average to chilly rainfest we have had for the past 3 weeks or more.

Perhaps 'deep' was a bit of a stretch, but 'colder' maybe. All bubbles in the wind anyway. Something different no doubt will show on the 18z. 

ECM has also continued backing off of a possible strat wind reversal in today's run, Link  so that's looking less interesting too. 

Unless something changes I think I might shift to looking for mild and dry interludes, although not sure at the moment that'll be any more fruitful than looking for cold. Will see what things look like after tomorrow's 12zs but hard to see the trend as anything other than 'poor' IMBY, whether it's mild and dry or cold you're after. 

Story of this Winter.

And even here it’s still raining, snow only for above 1200 feet , story for the last three weeks, ski resorts loving it though 👍👍

This ties in with what has been one tease after another, ec46 showing the likelihood of colder regime later last third of December and then really ramping it up for January. Even as we progressed through Jan it still dangled the carrot.  Cold east/ north easterly winds just around the corner and then on into Feb. Absolute sheet. The models and weather have led many model watchers (snow geese, myself included)a merry dance this winter. On past winters experience I have no faith in the ec46 but the consistency of what it was showing together with model output have led us up the garden path many times this winter, with for most of us hardly a flake to show for it. For what its worth I still believe we will see one decent cold spell (courtesy of the strat warming) even for the south with lying snow before we look forward to the warmer months ahead.

Awesome isn’t it? And as I look at the operational and ens charts I see those amazing yellow and oranges looming to the south. Come to daddy you lovely warm babies. Winter is dead, and it’s SPRING time!!!

*Note that this relates to the data feed rather than the internal data generated by the model, and was done partly to reduce bandwidth requirements and data download volumes.

I thought they had been overly optimistic recently and didn't really match the snow depth forecasts (usually zero) .  This morning they look more realistic for this evening's rain/sleet/snow. 

When I looked last night, it appeared the comparable ones on the UK Met Office website were also potentially wrong. That said, it was late and I was very tired, so I'll check again later today.

Does anyone know why external image thumbnails remain tiny thumbnails when clicked, except for those posted by Brian? 

GFS Op - keeps the Atlantic LP slightly further north so winds are SE-ly rather than E-ly, but in neither case picking up really cold air e.g. from Ukraine. The current LP eventually fills Sun 8th only to be followed by another which makes more progress, and after a brief period with S-lies, settles 980mb N England Wed 11th and draws down cold air from large area of LP then over Scandinavia, However there's no co-ordination and after a confused period, normal service resumes and the chart for Thu 19th looks just like the one for today.

ECM - agrees with GFS to Wed 11th but the LP then settles in the Channel; colder air is restricted to N Britain and imports less for Scandi. But it too goes back to today's chart after Tue 17th

AIFS - London maxima 6-8C, slightly milder at each of the next tow weekends, rain on several days, wind between E at first and SW later. Edinburgh, similar temp profile to London but baseline 3-5C, rain frequent, winds mostly E-ly until later then SW/NW

GEFS - in the S, mean temp near norm well supported by ens members to Wed 11th when a spread develops (op below and control above) for a few days before converging again just below norm. Rain at any time, heaviest Fri 13th, as ever more in SW less in SE. In the N, cool at first then close to norm from Sat 7th and never good agreement from ens members(op & control very cold by Thu 19th). Only a little rain at first, then also more around Fri 13th, 30% chance of snow on low ground stations quoted, so almost certainly more on the hills.

I can right-click and 'open in new tab' from the context menu for full screen view.

If images are hosted on theweatheroutlook they will render full size regardless of who posts them.

Or just zoom in. Works for me at least. 

today could end up being the coldest day of the rest of winter.  just hope we dont get stuck under endless atlantic systems and flooding and gales.  but given how everything else has gone wrong for the UK, that is probably very likely

I think the models have been pretty accurate up to 180hrs. Beyond that at times there could have been a 40% or 50% chance of a cold incursion away from Scotland but it didn't happen. If you back our normal maritime climate then you will be less disappointed.

Yes - its been so close yet so far. Currently just 2 degrees C here, precipitation not far away. In times past, I cant help feeling there would have been a period of snow here before the rain arrived. I remember in the Early 90s - several  such events in feb’ - but for whatever reason, most probably GW,  Even with a cold fetch, it is no longer cold enough to get snow from it unless you are above 1000m. 

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/maps-and-charts/precipitation-map#?model=ukmo-ukv&layer=precipitation-type 

And it's so bleak. 34 days into the year I reckon we've already had a quarter of our typical annual rainfall.

https://cdn.fmi.fi/apps/ice-condition-maps/images/jaatilanne3.gif?t=1770115938 

Baltic sea ice is unusually high for the time of year. If we ever actually get a cold feed from Scandanavia this will help the air to be much colder than usual.