Beyond that, I wouldn't be confident on what happens next. Too many moving parts.

Have them all scraped and bring back past reliable forecasts like newspapers that they had good forecast for general situation and a week forecast all came off in a reality just odd little error but never failed to materialise on any weather pattern we had.  Still the same 100% unreliable 00z Nuneaton ensembles since early Jan showing wide scatter and nonsense day 10 fake cold members.  Frankly the models had gone severe worst and severe inaccuracy lately so need to be scaled back numerous amount of models available online including AI.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/23/635/ecmwf_33_360ies2.png 

Strangely, that is 10 days away!!!

It's been the best winter 10 days into the future of my lifetime. 

FAX - Atlantic Lp continues to push troughs and fronts into S England for the coming week. The main LP is positioned further south than has been the case, so the fronts make little progress N-wards, and an easterly develops for Scotland and N England.

GFS Op - as above but the E-lies don't last after next weekend, as the LP moves closer and sets up a closed circulation over Britain, centre 970mb Cornwall Mon 9th. As this LP moves SE-wards, it sets up a brief N-ly with cold air from Scandi; after a short break, the next Lp repeats this track (970mb Channel Sun 15th) and a more definite N-ly for the E coast before pressure rises weakly Tue 17th.

ECM - The main LP positions itself to the SW for a run of quite strong but not very cold SE-lies for the coming week for all, less of a push from the S, and then retreats to the Atlantic, so once again Britain has strong S-lies between LP to the west and HP to the east from Wed 11th 

AIFS - London, maxima 7-8C to Mon 10th then sllipping to 2C but at the same time drying up. Edinburgh, similar, but temp range from 5C down to 1C and a more consistently E/NE wind.

GFS - In the S, mean temp and ens support near norm until Tue 10th, then a big spread of ens members with op and control (in the minority) up to 10C below norm, persistent and often heavy rain (February fills the dyke ...) . In Scotland similar temp trend but the spread of ens members develops earlier, and much less rain (some heavier rain, likely snow, in the NE at first)

Looks a bit different on the TWO plot.

It was exactly the same last winter, and the one before. Ten days time was quoted weekly and often daily. 

Edit: Both the ICON and GFS 06z op runs are much cooler than the 00z equivalent by Thursday/Friday. Not widespread wintriness but quite a change in a relatively short time scale. It’s interesting to see the uncertainty even at that range.

If the air source is warmer it will “dilute” any cold that is here or any cold it interacts with. It won’t behave any differently to how it would have before it will just be a warmer airmass. If it were a colder airmass it would behave in exactly the same way as it did before, it’s just probably less likely to be a colder airmass.

The problem at the moment is the Atlantic is dominating our weather more than Scandinavia is, should that change then the cold would come in. Whether that happens is very much in the balance, and to be fair has been for the last couple of weeks,where the Atlantic influence generally won out. When it doesn’t you get outcomes more like this: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_240_1.png

 Will it look anything like that when the time comes? Now that’s a different question! It is definitely a possibility given the range of outcomes, but I don’t think it could be described as the probable outcome (yet) at this stage.

So broadly speaking, unsettled still in the short term, further mountain/hill snow for Scotland in particular, HP establishing over Greenland leading to colder air trying to push south whilst the Atlantic carries on pushing LPs our way. Dividing line between colder and milder air TBC but it wouldn't surprise me given last couple of runs if it ends up largely across the middle of the UK other than brief shots of colder air being pulled further south as LPs move through. 

Partly to annoy people for mentioning it again(🤡) and partly because it's interesting but the latest ECM zonal wind forecast now has a mean just above a reversal, continuing the downward trend. That's for mid Feb, so even if it ended up a reversal and that filtered down it probably wouldn't have an impact until early March but could lead to some fun looking charts. I guess given the weak northern blocking which looks likely to develop in the near term, a SSW could reshuffle the pieces to put us on the (even in MBY) milder side of things, so the fun charts could be mild/warm southerlies. Something to watch alongside how the current possibly colder shot develops anyway. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/signal#rep346 

Nicely shows that even though it's less keen this morning, the ECM remains much more likely to bring at least a short shot of cold countrywide. 

Will be interesting to see where the GFS 6z op sits in the ens, I'd be surprised if it didn't have some company but given earlier sets I'd expect there to be more in the way of milder options down here. I'd be happy to be proved wrong on that though and the 6z op would also dry things up a touch, which would be welcome. 

That’s the snow depth plot though isn’t it? The other one was just “accumulated snowy precipitation”