NYC for instance:

2m temps below show NYC doesn't even get to freezing at all for the next 2 weeks let alone above and we all know there is warm water off eastern seaboard:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=131181&model=gfs&var=5&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Hope I am wrong and we see something interesting but for now it all looks grim. We are stuck in the same weather pattern. 

Don’t overly fixate on NY temperatures there are other factors at play. Fact is the tilt of the high is wrong so it’s more of what is happening further east.

Indeed, it is not as simple as eastern US cold = UK mild. Even if what happens there can have an onwards impact in the Atlantic and wider patterns it does not always preclude wintry conditions here. 

From a local perspective the 12z GFS continues the theme of bringing a risk of wintry precipitation around here on Tuesday. If this run follows the previous ones and other models then that will be followed by a milder few days and then a renewed push from the east, which is the time point I think most people are interested in re. a more widespread cold risk.

Be quite excited by that chart usually!

Yes the problem is the lack of consistency from UKMO, the fact that FI sits currently at around t96, and the fact that the 12zs from ICON, GFS and GEM are no where near as good, with limpit lows back to spread flooding misery more widely around the SW on the other models.

As is the MetO raw for here - I think we must have Aberdeen's climate right now, only several degrees warmer.

9 or 10 degrees over the next week, 6 or 7 by night (so well above average there) and rain or drizzle most days too. I've never seen the "headline" summary for the day show drizzle before, either!

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/meto.jpg 

I think there have been a number of runs in the various ensembles in recent days which have signalled an early taste of spring. That said, there are plenty of cold options too, so I wouldn't be confident yet.

We have had just under half an hour of sunshine in the past two weeks so the sooner I see the end of this endless easterly muck the better. If it’s replace by mild southwesterlies I won’t complain (but I wouldn’t say no to a drier and more wintry outlook either).

More of the same (as recently) looks likely.

Can't fault you with this post, it is becoming a possible outcome, although there seems to be the significant possibility of the stalemate continuing, with a small chance of nationwide substantial cold? Uncertainty continues. The professionals have mentioned both cold and mild outcomes although reading between the lines the cold has a good chance. I have a gut feeling we will miss out on the cold. 

Yes, a bit of a theme there from the GFS - it's not the first time recently it's shown that outcome. I suspect that's the best chance of cold for us in the south, a push of cold as the block collapses...

Anything to get out of this horrible set up, less cold to average temps, no sun, no frost, no snow and all rain and dull, is not what we are here for a winter season that supposed to be snowy, cold and frosty with mild weather at times.   Would like to see the ensembes to trend milder, drier and sunnier pattern if we can't get deep cold as it nearly past it winter sell by date.

No doubt that when Spring hits, the cold will pour in, just to keep the temps the same as they are now. 

Not just the 12Z op runs but the ensembles too are wide apart.

Makes you wonder if the blended solution is something akin to what we have now😬

The British winter: brought to you by Evri.

Hahahah - that reliable!! GFS pub run is a snow fest again to continue the tease, but not as much as the ECM, which embeds and prolongs a cold spell of dreams. I have much more confidence in this one verifying, despite the Woolf crying to date, because the cold Associated with such a block as we have seen out east, even if the wrong shape for us thus far, always spills out west at some point - as February progresses, due to the weakening jet and destabilising influences as the sun returns.  I actually think this could be snowiest spell in 16 years, and some pond icing frosts, even if the sun strength attacks the non-shaded parts. Low dew points will keep it in place hopefully.