It does highlight the uncertainty in the current output. It also indicates how close we are to the continental cold. Potential perhaps?

Not for the first time in recent days, I've thought that within the UK the Shetlands is the place to be if you want serious cold.

This latest bit of hope seems to be more to do with an expanding block to the North than any Southern positioned jet but I suppose the two are interlinked.

Yes indeed, from the 3rd of Feb I am to have 10 days of 850's between -5 and -10 C here with East or Northeast winds according to the 06Z GFS......here we go again

the boy who cried wolf.  Eventually when the beast comes, no one will believe it

I'm getting deja vu.

Swear I saw that chart last week. And the week before.

Yes, they don't get a lot of snow considering where they are and their temperatures are very dominated by the local sea temperature so it is quite cold for them. Bit of a wretched climate in my opinion though lovely place. I went there a couple of years ago in late May early June and it was always windy and struggled to make 10C most days!

I always imagine there to be bleak, cold, wet and windy

What is weird though is that even in a decent easterly flow, the cold pool at 850mb seems to stay stuck to Scandinavia like a limpet and doesn't actually migrate towards us!

It is Sod’s Law - we finally get an undercut and an easterly draw just as the deep cold has drained away and we end up with a flow smelling of calamari and retsina instead of vodka and gravalax.

Give me that any day over the cool, grey, wet easterly muck that seems to have been a permanent feature here for the last 2 weeks and the next one by the look of things. It feels like it has not got light since about the 10th of January. The GEFS data show the same prevailing wind from the E or SE until the end of the run here.

Not as good as my number 29 from a couple of days ago. 

In all honesty, it just bugs me seeing them pop up knowing they have a rats a*se chance of turning up. 

April 2021 pretty much turned up. That one sticks in my memory more than 2018 BFTE tbh.

"Limpet" brilliant!!!!

Bit more support for a reversal after the first week of Feb. Which doesn’t necessarily mean anything even 2 weeks after that for the UK. But could support the chance of a wintry second half of Feb. By which time a few members prefer to feel the warming sun!

That’s very funny - LOL - sums it up. I do think it will happen around mid month.