EDIT: AI has downgraded slightly. 

I mean the irony is that its actually a very snowy run for Northern England. But its 0.1 downgrade away from being nothing.

For anyone keeping count, universal slight upgrades with the exception of the GFS and ECM. 

EDIT: done it for the GEM ensembles too and picked P11, that is also one of the colder options.

EDIT: Done it with the ECM12Z ensembles and picked P11. ALSO one of the colder options.

Is the HARMONIE 20Z onto something?

I should add the UKV21Z looks less good (LP further north)

I guess not then….

Those uppers some sub -20hpa will feel bitter there. So no chance of cold here then..?

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=131181&model=gfs&var=2&run=18&lid=ENS&bw=1 

It’s not as simple as that, but the cold air and extent of - is what is driving what we experience here in the UK

Yes cyclogenisis...

Maybe if we get an SSW then could be a chance in middle of flFebruary for a colder spell here in UK.

The models are teasing with the next chase as we go into Feb. I think most of us now are too tired to even go there!

10 / 9 / 9 / 9 / 8 / 9 / 8

A smidge above average, in other words, and not even a sniff of a ground frost, let alone an air frost. It doesn't normally flip quite as badly as this, for example yesterday evening it had, for the same days:

10 / 9 / 9 / 7 / 5 / 8

There are still some cold runs around if you're prepared to cherry-pick ensemble members, but last night's GEFS only had 3 members bringing in -10C 850s to London, well down from the 15 or more of just three days ago. 

Just for fun, here's what the ECM was predicting 10 days ago for today:

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/90/115/ecmwf_0_240zow3.png 

...and here's what we ended up with:

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/98/29639/ecmwf_0_3mgd6.png 

On a very broad-brush basis it's not actually too bad - but on a more local level it's the little changes that make all the difference. It's the same old story, really, the strength of the Atlantic flow was underestimated, the strength of the blocking to the NE overestimated. Small changes on a global scale, but boy - what a difference they make to our little islands! 

Great summary as always, even if it isn't what most us southerners want to hear.

I did notice a noticeable cold hump appear mid February in yesterday's long range GFS anomaly forecast,  so perhaps not all hope is lost in what has been a frustrating winter. 

I honestly think this latest chase should be seen as a TWO case study.

Most here are winter enthusiasts and it's only natural for many of us to be drawn in when multiple ensemble sets show a 30%+ cold cluster. It's especially hard to resist when several different models begin pumping out cold  operational runs!

Unfortunately despite all the computational advances we're still in the same position we've alway been... I.E needing cross-model op support at 96 hours and looking for almost zero dissenters across multiple model ensemble suites. 

Will this stop us dreaming? Of course not, but I guess we need to accept that payback for our efforts may be biannual at best and try to enjoy the occasional triumphs! 😁

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=aifs&var=1&run=0&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=aifs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Yes - totally agree with all you say. GFS 0z says no jam today outside the Scottish Highlands, but possibly Jam for many in another 10-14 days. We’ll follow, but not with much conviction until T+96 across all the main models.

This morning all is not lost (but I do live towards the north-east!) The 00Z GFS keeps the jet to the south with Lows spawning to the south-west and fading SE or E. The cold air remains locked in to the N and NE so potential is there for the north and north-east of the UK! It ends cold UK wide at 300+ ECM seems a bit better too?

It's  marginal in the S and SW for sure and even up here our cold days are about 3-5 C 🤔

It's not raging zonality at least and we will all keep looking! 🤞🤞🤞🙂

I agree but it may just end up as cool, unsettled and generally unpleasant (typical easterly muck). The ECM mean and ensemble data show that more wintry options are available but as it stands away from high ground it looks not very wintry but potentially very wet.

Also a signal for the cold air to shift South as we head into next weekend. Clearly that's la la land though, in the current set up.

GFS Op - agrees with FAX; then for the following week LP mid-N-Atlantic 945mb takes control and spits out smaller LPs across Britain (965mb Wed 28th Irish Sea, 985mb Sat 31st Scotland, 980mb Mon 2nd Brittany). By Fri 6th a rather confused situation has resolved into a shallow trough from Norway to Italy with weak N-lies for Britain while a new LP heads for the SW.

ECM - like GFS at first but then runs the secondary LPs  further S ( Wed 28th on the Isle of Wight, Fri 30th running through the Channel). Then for the week from Mon 2nd an LP off SW Ireland spreads across S England/N France  as a  broad trough with E-lies for Scotland (but not cold; the E-lies are fed with air from the eastern Med)

AIFS - London, maxima about 7C to Thu 29th then 3C, rain to 29th then mostly dry, winds S-ly this week, mostly E-ly thereafter. Edinburgh, similar but temp range is 5C to 1C.

GEFS - mean temp near norm dropping to a couple of degrees below, moderately good ens agreement to end of Jan then increasingly wide spread (but nearly all below norm and a few quite cold). Rain starts Sun 25th, heavy for a week, slowly decreasing. (In the SW, heavy rain throughout). Snow row figures grading from about 50% of max in lowland NE Scotland (but I expect hill snow), 0% in SW England.

Overall cool and often wet; the next cold chase starts with the handful of cold outliers in GEFS, some 10C below norm, in the first week of Feb. But don't hold your breath - they're in the minority.

It shown the models had been very performing very badly and very inaccurate so a lot worst nowadays.  They did not factor the USA deep cold, did they not show stupid 3000miles LP when they were showing deep cold snowy and from the east with normal sized LP in the Atlantic.

Today 00z ensembles for here is zzzzz, cold rain, less cold to average temps and no cold nights or sunny days. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=48656&model=gfs&var=201&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Kind of sums up our winters these days.

That said, while the eye candy runs have gone, it doesn't really look too mild.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=dublin&charthour=006&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20 (GPDM)

The mean is below average for Dublin on GFS and heading downwards.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?modelrun=na&lg=850&lglocation=london 

Even the London mean never goes above average and trends downwards.