What this isn’t at this stage is anything like the BFTE in 2018 - that was pulled in with only minor hiccups from 10 days out. 

And before anyone on here goes in with the ‘solar flare has ruined our chances’ argument popular on some platforms, there is little to no evidence for a correlation between activation of the ionosphere and surface weather, at least not in the short term (weeks). It’s a complex subject with a low data set and can’t sensibly be used as an argument.

Have you a theory why we are seeing this pattern repeat (if of course it continues so to do) with the models? I.e. the 0z being Atlantic influenced to a greater degree and the 12z being more Scandi-block influenced. Same questions arise in my head - as per my last post. Is this all to do with data gathering? Is the data for the 0z greater or lesser than the 12z, as this would a) indicate if the eye candy or wobble charts will win out, and b) indicate perhaps in future - which runs to watch for with greater certainty.  I ask just because I seem to remember posts from the past on such matters - but cant remember the content so clearly. I seem to remember that the data was better at the end of the day - i.e. the pub run; but I cannot be certain I have that right. If I am, then the 18z is the one to pay greatest heed to and the 0z perhaps the least. If that was correct, it would save an awful lot of disappointment from members. 

Still in a better place than first thing yesterday...hopefully latter upgrades....think the South maybe sweating though..

Yes just when you think the models might finally firm up on something cold another spanner gets thrown in the works somewhere and it’s back to more mess and uncertainty. 

As a reminder tomorrow is when the cold air was originally forecast to arrive from the east - I was away for the night last Monday and remember looking at the charts. Eight days later and the rainbow is no closer - it “might” get here in five or six days if the colder ensemble members are correct.

What odds that in another week we are still seeing the models toying with cold from the east at T144?

I’m not sure to be honest. It’s something I have noticed (albeit to a lesser extent) for many years. It appears more marked than normal currently. The only thing I can think of is the difference in datasets/input for each run (but that is a guess).

FAX - various LPs in the 960-970mb range situated in the area between S Ireland - Cornwall - Brittany pushing fronts N-wards across Britain on strong S-ly winds all this week. On Sat, signs that the Scandi HP is expanding and turning winds more E-ly.

GFS Op - agrees with FAX. Then by later Sun 25th, the LP has moved down to S France and a genuine E-ly has developed. Colder air moves in from the NE as depressions follow this SE-ly track (950mb off Brittany Wed 28th) but by Sun 1st the Azores HP has pushed in and brought much milder weather. As this subsides, the weather everts to a standard Atlantic pattern, LP brushing past N Scotland and SW-lies for Britain as a whole.

ECM - agrees with GFS for the next week but then although it also shows a significant LP for Wed 28th (975mb N Ireland), this and other LPs never link to the cold air further east and Britain remains under moderately cold SE-lies. However, from Sat 31st the Scandi HP revives strongly (1035mb unlike GFS which writes it off) and fresh but possibly not deep cold E-lies develop and persist to Wed 4th.

Quite a dramatic difference after a week from now!

AIFS - London, maxima 10C now, dropping to 3C at the weekend then recovering a little, rain tomorrow, then more for w/b Wed 28th, winds S-ly this week, slowly backing NE-ly (quite unlike yesterday when they were all S-ly). Edinburgh, temps strting at 7C but otherwise like LOndon, rain most days (possible break at the weekend), winds consistently E-ly

GEFS - temps near norm to Mon 26th (both mean and ens), then mean and many ens members 2-3C below norm to Sun 1st, (colder and better ens agreement in N) then much disagreement in ens members so 'mean below norm' not meaningful. Dry at the weekend, other wise rain in many ens members on most days, heaviest in SW but not much in NE. Snow row figures only above 50% where pptn is least (e.g. E Scotland)

Would be no surprise to see the charts flip back again with the 12zs.  

You wouldn't pin your hat on anything just now as regards next week's weather predictions.

Been that way for a while and still no clearer.

I've been wondering the same thing. The pattern of the 0Z runs being more Atlantic-driven than the 12Z runs seems to have continued with today's (Tuesday's) 0Z runs.

The Manchester GEFS (0z) are a little better.

There's three distinct groupings, with the split occurring on thr 25th:

1) around 20% of the perts show the 850 falling to around -4c and remain in a -3c to -5c band

2) around 30% show an initial fall to around -7c, then recover within a couple of days to join the above in that -3c to -5c band

3) around 25% show the same initial fall, although some go down to -10, then bump along in a band that falls between -7c to -11

Both the Op and Control sit in 3)

Looking at Newcastle, there's a similar split, but the percentages are around 20% / 10% / 60%

Inverness is IRO 10% / 15% / 70%

The main 'macro' development over the last few days has been the positioning of the high. Late last week, this was showing as more of a Scandy High, generally positioned to our NE or ENE. It's now shown to be positioned to the north of the UK when the colder air impacts us.

I am with you at 204 -210 hrs this one is colder in the South then we are way in FI. The consistency I see is that the cold air is always nearby to be tapped into, the inconsistency the flow of this towards us where it hits most and how cold it is. All good at this point.

It is strange isn't it,  all models remain catastrophically bad at modeling Scandi HPs. It happens all the time.

Yes it is a bit 2010-esque in that regard, good for much of the country but a bit rubbish for the south as the jet tracks south but not quite far enough south.

The snow cover charts sum the problem up pretty well!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/06_222_uksnowdepth.png 

But it's just another variation on a theme which is certainly interesting and not the usual winter slop.

Looking at the bigger picture, the problem seems to be lower heights over the pole which allows the jet to edge that bit further north towards its natural home.

Even then the Atlantic remains impressively blocked at T336 and it looks like another northerly outbreak on this run. 

There it is again the 'Barents sea / Murmansk province low' causing mayhem with the Scandi High, changing the shape of the Easterlies and the source air. Its quite ironic that the Scandi element of the block is being threatened from the East / North East.

We end on a cold northerly with a mini low working it's way up the N Sea?? I can't take this run seriously

................. until 6 hours time when the next set of ensembles flip back! We really, really do not know how it will pan out. The sensible ones know that it is extremely rare for us to get decent cold in the Southern half of the Country but there is really nothing that the ensembles show that it definitely won't right now.