The Weather Outlook

Remove ads from site

nsrobins
19 January 2026 09:11:52
There has at no point been cross-model agreement for the +120 time frame which is why, as tempting as it is, I have not bought into the hustle and dupery of the odd sensational operational run. 

But having said that, there is still enough uncertainty in the ensemble suites (MOGREPS is as cold as it’s been in the longer term) to keep a watching brief on trends. It’s (cold easterly) a waning signal but the signal is still there.

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

+1
soperman
19 January 2026 09:17:54
Looking at the models, there appears to be a trend for a fairly strong cold incursion from the East commencing next weekend with interludes from the Atlantic, particularly at the beginning of this period and impacting UK weather. The pattern though stays in place and it may take a couple of goes to reach our shores.  Keep calm everyone!
Happily living by the sea in Brixham......but sad to leave the snowy Chiltern Hills after 35 years!
+1
Lumi
19 January 2026 09:25:59
So whilst I have been doing my very amateur model analysis during this current Easterly cold weather chase I know just enough, I think, to realise that since yesterday that the period after Friday (the 5 to 10 days point) was and still is key. A low pressure area around the Murmansk / Barents sea area kept cropping up in the output across all models (ops and ensembles). I noticed every time this showed itself the cold 850 temps kept being pushed north away from us, diminished in area covered and stayed across in Scandinavia. I also noticed that the Scandi high started to get squeezed out more to the SE of where we would like it. Now the whole Northern - North Eastern block as been attacked seemingly by the NW Russian pressure drop spreading. Is there any significance in this I was wondering. Don't know if its the cause or effect of the models moving away from what we would like to see. Any way the flip flops continue and may end up the flip or the flop still. 
Thurlstone

South Yorkshire

230m AMSL

+1
Snow Hoper
19 January 2026 09:34:06

Really? I pointed out two or three days ago that it was consistently being shown as from the 25th to the 27th (i.e. the last week of the month)? I don’t remember it ever being before the weekend except in one or two GFS operational runs. The overall easterly influence remains but any “real” cold has always been more of a coin toss and to me that’s the way it remains. The ECM 00z op run seems to either “gone off on one” or picked up a new trend and seems to be arpa odds with its ensembles in the crucial medium term.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

As Rob said, initially it was around the 22nd. I do believe it was one or two GFS runs that quickly dropped the idea, pushing it back to this weekend. Now, it maybe faltering again into Brian's timeframe, if at all.

Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

doctormog
19 January 2026 09:52:25

As Rob said, initially it was around the 22nd. I do believe it was one or two GFS runs that quickly dropped the idea, pushing it back to this weekend. Now, it maybe faltering again into Brian's timeframe, if at all.

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 

That seems totally at odds with the data I have saved. The only thing I can think of is that it may have been modelled to come in sooner in the south as the data I have are for my location and none show the time scale as before this weekend. 

I don't mean random app output autogenerated from an operational run of one model, I mean robust ensemble data sets. These all, for this location, show a dip to cold weather around the 25th. In fact going back 8 to 10 days there was no real evidence of any cold easterly at all. I'd be keen to see the evidence* that suggest say a week to 10 days ago that showed a consensus that cold easterlies would be over the UK by the middle of this week.

*Not an isolated op run from one model.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

+1
squish
19 January 2026 09:54:18
Whilst a significant cold break remains in the balance, a significant stormy spell seems odds on
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
+1
GroundhogDay
19 January 2026 09:56:03
The despondency in here is quite something to behold!

I woke up this morning and immediately checked TWO's automated forecast. What a tonic to start the day, even if the GFS op was probably crying out for my mixer. All very lovely to see, but we all know it has never been a better than 1 in 3 chance. 

Now it seems many are on the verge of throwing in the towel, despite knowing this is one of those situations when we know nothing will become clear (ISH) until six or seven days out. No trolling from me or finger pointing, just a reminder that things are on a knife-edge and it best to (try and) enjoy the ride 😅

Based in the snow desert that is North Northants
+2
GroundhogDay
19 January 2026 09:59:14

That seems totally at odds with the data I have saved. The only thing I can think of is that it may have been modelled to come in sooner in the south as the data I have are for my location and none show the time scale as before this weekend. 

I don't mean random app output autogenerated from an operational run of one model, I mean robust ensemble data sets. These all, for this location, show a dip to cold weather around the 25th. In fact going back 8 to 10 days there was no real evidence of any cold easterly at all. I'd be keen to see the evidence* that suggest say a week to 10 days ago that showed a consensus that cold easterlies would be over the UK by the middle of this week.

*Not an isolated op run from one model.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Mine too! There was the odd rogue member going low early, but from what I have seen it has always been the 25th onwards when the 850 spaghetti became very obvious. 

Based in the snow desert that is North Northants
+1
squish
19 January 2026 10:07:22
Agree groundhog . ICON 06z at +120 and GFS at +120 have the cold a bit further west, and in a larger 'pool'  than their respective 00z runs at this point.
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
jhall
19 January 2026 10:11:55
Watching the models for the hoped-for arrival of a cold spell is a bit like playing snakes and ladders. The 0Z ECM run was definitely one of the snakes.
Cranleigh, Surrey
squish
19 January 2026 10:12:23
850s  6c lower over whole of  Scotland (-8) at +144 compared to -2c widely at same time on 00z run ( which was a great run!)
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
+1
overland
19 January 2026 10:13:35
For me, this spell has just reinforced the importance of the ensembles as the various suites never seemed to strongly support a proper cold spell unlike 2010 & 2018. Where there were some runs with a decently low mean it was mainly due to a couple of very cold runs skewing the mean. However, the period in question still hasn't happened yet and there is still a deal of uncertainty.
Mumbles, Swansea. 80m asl
+3
Snow Hoper
19 January 2026 10:15:39

That seems totally at odds with the data I have saved. The only thing I can think of is that it may have been modelled to come in sooner in the south as the data I have are for my location and none show the time scale as before this weekend. 

I don't mean random app output autogenerated from an operational run of one model, I mean robust ensemble data sets. These all, for this location, show a dip to cold weather around the 25th. In fact going back 8 to 10 days there was no real evidence of any cold easterly at all. I'd be keen to see the evidence* that suggest say a week to 10 days ago that showed a consensus that cold easterlies would be over the UK by the middle of this week.

*Not an isolated op run from one model.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Would definitely have been this location. Again just the one or two GFS runs at the very beginning of the switch, from what appeared to be mild all the way charts, after the last breakdown. Don't have anything saved, just the memory of it "starting" around the 22nd. It was gone as quickly as it appeared and pushed back to this weekend.

Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

+2
squish
19 January 2026 10:22:21
At +180 the general pattern is the same,. Cold over the whole of the UK. PV centre spinning back NW off the coast of Greenland and block looking more favourable than the 00z for prolonged cold.  So having said that it will now do the opposite!
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
+1
squish
19 January 2026 10:27:08
Cold over Scandinavia is intense on the 06z!
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
The Beast from the East
19 January 2026 10:32:17

I'd advise "lurkers" and "bouncers" to check out the charts for themselves if they've got time.

1. The medium range outlook remains very uncertain and things haven't significantly changed in the last 72 hours

2. The most likely period for a cold easterly flow remains the end of Jan and the first half of Feb, as I've consistently said

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I have no doubt there will be a few days of old school cold easterlies, but all the ensembles suggest the Atlantic will come roaring in fuelled by the deep cold spilling off the eastern seaboard.  At least on this forum we are facing reality compared to some of the delusional cold rampers on the other channel 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

squish
19 January 2026 10:34:04
I don't think the 06z will dispel any hype on the other side!
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
The Beast from the East
19 January 2026 10:35:06

At +180 the general pattern is the same,. Cold over the whole of the UK. PV centre spinning back NW off the coast of Greenland and block looking more favourable than the 00z for prolonged cold.  So having said that it will now do the opposite!

Originally Posted by: squish 

Oh yes, its a good run and I would bank it.  but i doubt it will have much support and will be tomorrows chip paper when the 12zs come out

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

The Beast from the East
19 January 2026 10:37:59
some brutal cold across mainland europe on this run, lets hope vlad doesnt cut off the gas!

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

jhall
19 January 2026 10:38:44

I have no doubt there will be a few days of old school cold easterlies, but all the ensembles suggest the Atlantic will come roaring in fuelled by the deep cold spilling off the eastern seaboard.  At least on this forum we are facing reality compared to some of the delusional cold rampers on the other channel 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Reality is greatly overrated. 🙂

Cranleigh, Surrey
+2
jhall
19 January 2026 10:52:24
Well we did get the proper cold in with the 06Z GFS Op, but it was brief. I think I preferred the 0Z Op which, while messy, at least at its best point showed most of the country blanketed in snow.
Cranleigh, Surrey
Retron
19 January 2026 10:56:10

I saved the ens graphs and iPhone app screenshots from a week ago today and they showed the dip starting on Wednesday (21st). The app showed a max of 3C for Wednesday which fitted with the ensemble mean. It now shows a max of 9C so there has most certainly been a delay.

Incidentally last night it was showing a max of 0C for next Tuesday and this morning that has risen to 6C again. Any proper cold from the east has consistently been pushed back, always staying at least 8 or 9 days out.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

One of the proxies I look for is when the dewpoint goes below zero (using the xc version of GFS). It was originally as early as Wednesday this week - that lasted for a few runs - but now it isn't until next Monday. While the deep cold uppers were rarely shown before this coming weekend, a cold surface layer was indeed shown as early as the middle of this week. The models slowly went off that idea as they corrected northwards.

Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Lumi
19 January 2026 11:34:07
I for one am glad of the uncertainty in our current model output. Its a different kind of winter. Anything seems possible. The usual certainty would certainly mean High Pressure somewhere south of here, low pressure somewhere north and mild to very mild with wind and damp crap!
Thurlstone

South Yorkshire

230m AMSL

+2
squish
19 January 2026 11:37:14
The ECM/GFS/ICON 06zs all have an earlier shot of cold further SW than the corresponfding 00z runs. JMA is much the same as its 00z run.  What happens next is anyones guess, but I would be encouraged by the tweeks in the medium term modelling....
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
+1
Snow Hoper
19 January 2026 11:40:24
Today's 0z ECM is similar in what last night's GFS 18z was doing. GFS 06z is another variation of what is clearly a difficult pattern to nail down. 
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

Remove ads from site