Yes a beauty,  12s have upgraded so far.

It's a thing of rare beauty. I'm tempted to have a print-out of it framed and hung on my living room wall. 🙂

Op 12z is very cold

UKMO has a decent set up

GEM as per comments above is better than it has been, although it looks slower than GFS. At least it's moving towards a colder solution though. 

I'll reserve judgement on the UKMO until I can see the ens - it looks broadly consistent and would hopefully carry on sinking the cold air south.

An encouraging start to the 12z, sods law suggests the ECM op will flip to a more Atlantic driven solution just to be irritating😂

Edit - should just add comments from an IMBY POV, appreciate the GEFS have been showing a stronger cold signal the further north you head. 

Nope, the 12z ECM (remember, it's out early on MC) also brings in cold easterlies. There is a bit of a feeling of "things falling just in the right place", but it does it nonetheless.

In fact both the 12z GFS and ECM ops are reminiscent of the "AI" pattern-matchers of the past few days.

Nice - I do peek at it on there sometimes but prefer the TWO charts for the wider view. Nice to hear it's another cold one - think that's 3 or so in a row from memory. 

I'll reserve judgement until I see the full ens suites but a very encouraging evening so far - GEMs run is nice too, a little later than GFS but cold air countrywide* even if the precip is probably optimistic.

*IMBY is -6/-7 by the end rather than the -9/-12 most of the top 3/4 of the UK has but the more deeply cold air is slowly heading south.

Ecm 12z is indeed a beauty , shame the AIFS goes wrong after day 10. 

Still , excellent 12s this afternoon. 

We should have it here in real time very soon. 😉

I think I personally would be more concerned if the AIFS was fantastic but the ECM was poor to be honest, Ally.

That said & as you say, the model output in general terms is looking pretty good right now, and certainly very different from what we saw at the start of the winter. 👍

Ok thanks for clarifying - I meant a general easterly flow with either -5 or -10, but I hadn’t done a specific count of these individually, as the -10 isotherm arrives for most if not all at some point thereafter acccording to the specific pert’ - but it was 53 % of members gave this flow - as opposed to Atlantic flow. This is not increasing - if anything the reverse ref the 12z, which maybe why the country file forecast talked only if a chance of snowy cold weather arriving for the beginning of the week after next. 

What's lovely is that, just as a little low hits the UK around t+240, running into cold air to deliver snow, then sliding away SEwards to give almost everywhere a covering, the high to our north starts to get a huge dose of WAA from a fat Atlantic low, and really inflates. It holds it's position before merging with a northwards-ridging AH, creating by the end of the run a 'you shall not pass' elongated block stretching from Greenland to well south of the Azores, and a cold northerly flow to the UK. The cherry is that a Siberian High is by then ridging far westwards and looks like linking up with the Iceland/Azores High.

It's like a committee of snow rampers have hacked GFS.

Zero chance it happens, but it's beautiful to see nonetheless.

I was pretty clear I believe in the original post on location - the midlands  - a line from Lincoln’s to Staffordshire - continuing NW. 

None of that was mentioned in the post to which I was replying I’m afraid, so no it was not clear, hence my question. The list I referred to only referenced “the UK” which is why I asked the question as the analysis didn’t seem to represent the UK as a whole. Thank you for the clarification. Overall the probably outcome is some form of cool to cold easterly list the 25th as has been the trend for the last few days. It may not be the wintry nirvana of the 12z output, but I guess it could be. 

The Countryfile forecast as you would expect at this range did little but highlight the possibility of a late January cold snap, a cutious but sensible message given the output.

I'd read that as more runs around 5/6c or less than above that threshold but a greater chance of average to mild than has been the case in some of the ECM ens. 

If I had to guess I'd say it's a reflection of the overall setup - previously members with milder 850s had a lower level continental feed so the T2M temps were still chilly/cold but there's now a more noticeable minority of runs that go more traditionally unsettled and push the cold far enough to the east that the surface temps are around average. 

I think the ens sets generally are fairly decent still but frustrating in that the ops are towards the bottom and whilst they suggest chilly or cold are favoured there's such a spread confidence in any one solution has to be limited. Hopefully the models aren't going to start wandering towards a growing cluster of more normal unsettled stuff and a gradual dropping of the colder signal - I don't think that's likely as it stands (and I think the general travel today has been mostly positive)  but we really are getting close to the point where the scatter needs to start consolidating behind something, whether that's cold, chilly, average or mild. More runs needed remains true but the model tease is maybe starting to go from titillating to a bit tedious. I'd certainly like to look at one of the more entertaining ops and be happy that there's robust support for it, rather than it being one of many possible outcomes. 

That’s OK - and I appreciate that it is important to be precise- but forgive me if I quote my post if 8.27am - “I agree that the GFS 0z has been a bit of a downgrade from the 18z, with now just 57% of pert’s showing cold air invade the UK - almost all from the mid-north Midlands northwards, i.e. Lincoln / Staffordshire northwards from T+180 - i.e 15 members of the 30 plus Op and Control, and the ECM is aligned, so too ICON and AI, but after that, the scatter is greater with 50% brining in a return to milder Atlantic conditions, but not the AI, or ECM - whose Op runs remain resolute” which does make the location clear. 

I do agree that the it was less clear what I meant by ”cold” air - as opposed to Atlantic air, but whilst subsequent GFS and other model runs have contained eye-candy cold air advection from the east, including the op’ - there are still 50% of pert’s showing a swift return to the Atlantic influence. All seems finely balanced. On the other hand I can’t remember a cold spell being forecast with better percentage of agreement. So hopefully this one is getting to a point where hope turns to delighted expectation- although that perhaps starts at T+96 - so I’ll save my ramping until Friday ! 

I agree entirely - this is a lousy pub run. It is either part of the flip-flop of the past week or the start of a downgrade - as many times before, so more runs needed. I also think it will be much clearer when we see all the Perturbations through to at least T+240 hrs. 

Anybody that can make anything of that after the 26th is a much better statistician than any of us other than it's fairly likely it won't be above 10C or below -4C max temp!