The Weather Outlook

Remove ads from site

western100
06 January 2026 20:30:08
There's some support within the ECM, given they are showing potential cold only a few days away really. We wouk definitely expect to see other models to follow on their next update , if it is to be considered 
Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border

100m ASL

X…..@Weather4u2

Matty H
06 January 2026 20:36:12

There's some support within the ECM, given they are showing potential cold only a few days away really. We wouk definitely expect to see other models to follow on their next update , if it is to be considered 

Originally Posted by: western100 

Definitely? 

No, there’s no guarantee of that whatsoever. It’s possible, yes. 

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

+2
Hippydave
06 January 2026 20:37:01

Plenty of ECM ensembles keep the cold like the Op up to day 7. Some are colder at this point. Certainly a decent amount of ensembles look to be finding the easterly solution. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

I don't think that set changes my mind but does make me quirk an eyebrow - definitely a lot more colder scatter on those than we've seen recently. 

GEFS Vs ECM below.

UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage

If the 0z set consolidates the idea interest will nudge up a notch but I'd be more comfortable betting against that happening than for it😜

Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: Tonbridge

jhall
06 January 2026 20:41:57

Definitely? 

No, there’s no guarantee of that whatsoever. It’s possible, yes. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

It looks to me as though you didn't read as far as the poster's "if it is to be considered".

Cranleigh, Surrey
+4
western100
06 January 2026 20:42:14
The majority of the ECM ensemble follow similar patterns to the GEFS.

ECM has evidently more members going cold but overall the Ensembles aren't a million miles apart

Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border

100m ASL

X…..@Weather4u2

squish
06 January 2026 20:53:33
Western100:  I disagree with your point about the 12z gfs. Although it is nowhere near the ECM in terms of cold getting that far west and affecting the UK , synoptically it has moved closer to that scenario than the 00z , and is essentially the same pattern just further east .

It may be right but I would say overall the 12zs as a whole have backed everything west a little , although for most not enough . So we will watch to see if this trend continues . Very 80s, and the small matter of a named storm on Thursday to keep an eye on too !

Great and interesting period of model watching 

D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
+1
squish
06 January 2026 20:58:05
In the short term ICON 18z has trended south with Thursdays low ( more in line with the rest now)
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Brian Gaze
06 January 2026 21:05:58

In the short term ICON 18z has trended south with Thursdays low ( more in line with the rest now)

Originally Posted by: squish 

The very highly rated ICON-D2 still seems to have the snow risk farther north than some of the other models?

UserPostedImage

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

+1
Polar Low
06 January 2026 21:16:36

Must admit I'm very much not on board with it doing anything other than turning milder IMBY. 

Solid agreement on GEFS for temps at the surface down here to recover to average by day, above by night around 12th Jan. 850s are also strongly suggesting average weather.

UKMO op is mild by T168 IMBY (not so for Scotland). 

GEM IMBY looks fairly average longer term, air from an Atlantic source/direction. 

ECM op obviously differs but usual rule of thumb should apply - if one of the ops is very different to the rest it's likely to be wrong. 

Unless we start to see ens support (ECM suite has robustly said no to a cold easterly lately), cross model support and inter run consistency I'm classing this as a temporary modelling blip. 

I'd be delighted to be proved wrong but based on the available output I don't think I will be!

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 

Might not be all noise the ecm opp Dave, control  looks cold as we turn into early next week

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_meteogram?base_time=202512280000&epsgram=classical_10d&lat=51.7357&lon=0.46958&station_name=Chelmsford 

Tom Oxon
06 January 2026 21:25:51
UserPostedImage

I'll get my shovel....

S Warwickshire countryside, c.375ft asl.
Polar Low
06 January 2026 21:31:49
Quite a lot of of those gfs members look further south to me on gfs12z the less it deepens the further south it appears.(rough guide)

 I would have also thought the more it deepens the sharper the right turn on exit I wonder if this is jet streak territory for the se

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=54 

Hippydave
06 January 2026 21:48:43

Might not be all noise the ecm opp Dave, control  looks cold as we turn into early next week

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_meteogram?base_time=202512280000&epsgram=classical_10d&lat=51.7357&lon=0.46958&station_name=Chelmsford 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Yeah, the ECM ens have definitely moved a bit - if the 0z set consolidates it'll be something I'll pay a bit more attention to. 

I guess one thing to mention is even if GEFS etc. are correct, we stay in at least chilly air until around 12th Jan, which is a delay of 4 days from what appeared the most likely warm up day a couple of days back. So there's been movement to prolonging the not mild pattern, even if the deep cold is on its way out IMBY. 

Not an uninteresting period of model watching at least. 

Edit: not a reflection on where the run may go but it's interesting to see what GFS 18z is doing with storm whatsisface:-

Back edge wintriness IMBY (probably overdone but you never know) on Friday 6am:-

UserPostedImage

A day later the LP is sinking/filling in much the same position, with light snow/rain over Kent, Norfolk and Fairweather's house:-

UserPostedImage

Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: Tonbridge

+1
Jiries
06 January 2026 22:08:08

UserPostedImage

I'll get my shovel....

Originally Posted by: Tom Oxon 

I think this Low is the most watched, tense and record amount of posting in NW thread and no one discuss  talk about mid term or FI as usual.  I am still very cautious with this chart which been showing red area over the Midlands for a while.  Tomorrow evening should be the final answer where this LP track be as so far it been steady compare to past that often move south or north fast each run.   Just hope it doesn't snow until after 7.30pm my time on thursday as I got day shift that finiehd 7pm.  -3C on the 12z ensembles uppers during the passing of this LP.

squish
06 January 2026 22:10:03
More resolute blocking to the east on the 18z. May not be enough to keep the Atlantic at bay but another step in the right direction towards the cold moving back west...thus far anyway 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Polar Low
06 January 2026 22:14:12

More resolute blocking to the east on the 18z. May not be enough to keep the Atlantic at bay but another step in the right direction towards the cold moving back west...thus far anyway 

Originally Posted by: squish 

Indeed cold hangs on relentless attack even snow on the front edge Sunday afternoon good old eighties battle

Jiries
06 January 2026 22:36:39

More resolute blocking to the east on the 18z. May not be enough to keep the Atlantic at bay but another step in the right direction towards the cold moving back west...thus far anyway 

Originally Posted by: squish 

If the easterly winds come to fruition we get those much needed subzero day temps like what Brian posted yesterday.  I detest those less cold day temps of 1-4C.  Hope to see more runs firming the easterly and give those like Retron to get his snow entitlement turn.  

+1
tallyho_83
06 January 2026 23:13:39

If the easterly winds come to fruition we get those much needed subzero day temps like what Brian posted yesterday.  I detest those less cold day temps of 1-4C.  Hope to see more runs firming the easterly and give those like Retron to get his snow entitlement turn.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Moomin will be pleased as the 18z has an upgrade for snow depth with an ENS average of 7.9cm on Thursday night/Friday 00:00 for Oxford:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=48603&model=gfs&var=26&run=18&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Quantum
06 January 2026 23:29:53
Its not really a surprise the ECM18Z is a downgrade on the 12Z but then the 12Z was a bit of a crazy outlier at least for now. The 18Z is more what I expected really in terms of this gradual trend towards the mild breakthrough being pushed further and further back. And while the ECM has downgraded towards this more realistic option, other models have upgraded towards it. So on the cold stays past that 120h danger mark.
25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

+2
squish
06 January 2026 23:46:53
One might argue the scandal high looks more robust at +144 on the ECM 18z than  at the same time on the 12z. A slower evolution perhaps in having the mechanism to draw the cod pool west, but the general pattern is similar, and there is a growing consensus  across the models for this general pattern.  So potentially a very stormy spell ( GEFS 18z control is a good example), and always the chance the very intense cold pool will pour westwards if there is any break in the flow .
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
+1
squish
06 January 2026 23:55:32
18z UKMO further south for Thursday's storm

https://modeles14.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo/run/ukmohd-2-54-0.png?06-22 

D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
+1
tallyho_83
07 January 2026 00:08:06

One might argue the scandal high looks more robust at +144 on the ECM 18z than  at the same time on the 12z. A slower evolution perhaps in having the mechanism to draw the cod pool west, but the general pattern is similar, and there is a growing consensus  across the models for this general pattern.  So potentially a very stormy spell ( GEFS 18z control is a good example), and always the chance the very intense cold pool will pour westwards if there is any break in the flow .

Originally Posted by: squish 

Yes I was just looking at the positive from a cold and snowy weather enthusiast that up until 180z/192z the 18z GFS op shows the Scandinavian high pressure looking more robust and ATlantic low looking less potent compared to 12z GFS run:

This is the 18z @ 192z:

UserPostedImage

Cold air never too far away to the east!?

UserPostedImage

Look at 12z you can see the cold airmass is further east as is the Scandi block:

UserPostedImage

12z uppers @ same time, you can see the UK under much warmer airmass.

UserPostedImage

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

+1
Ally Pally Snowman
07 January 2026 06:24:25
Friday snow not happening here good luck to those more lucky.

GEM 0z is  decent though , easterly promise.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gem&var=1&run=0&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
07 January 2026 07:01:15
ECM 0z not without easterly interest either but not the insanity of last night's 12z

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
ballamar
07 January 2026 08:01:57
Adding a few eastern favourites into my temp watch today, Moscow, Warsaw and Berlin! The monster high out to the East is distinct possibility. GEM @240 shows this nicely. 

moomin75
07 January 2026 08:59:34

Moomin will be pleased as the 18z has an upgrade for snow depth with an ENS average of 7.9cm on Thursday night/Friday 00:00 for Oxford:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=48603&model=gfs&var=26&run=18&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Won't happen in my Witney microclimate!!

That said, ICON 6Z has gone south again and now has me slap bang in the middle.

My head hurts, all this northwards, southwards movement.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Remove ads from site