longer term its pants, but the early bit handles the shortwave to the north better.   Pert 4 on the GEFS is what we want to see to keep the idea of an early easterly going

 Notice the outlier lines for Nuneaton show down to -10 with few supports and same time Nicosia have warm outlier so both have some few supports so not fully outlier.  If Nicosia get very warm it mean easterly for here as E Med is warmer so that help to allow the deep pooling to travel to UK and not drop to SE Europe to E Med.  Really hope this deep cold in the East do enter the UK at some point.  

IMBY chilly/cold until 12th still looks likely, then milder than average but not by much for a couple of days before returning to around average by day at least. Scotland looks a touch chillier generally, with ECM ens suggesting somewhere around 5c or less is more likely.  

GEFS/ECM ENS still have some colder members, hence it not being out of the question but very much in the minority. I guess as long as the pressure remains high over Scandi something may develop if the Atlantic allows but as it stands IMO we're more likely to end up on the milder side of the boundary with the atlantic stalling a bit further east, at least in the mid term. 

I tend to take the view that whereas historically the models may have struggled with colder blocks and LPs running against them, these days they're generally pretty good at deciding whether the atlantic will push through, with the only query being timing, with the occasional delay of milder air by a day or so. 

Like clockwork as soon as the Met Office mention an easterly the models start to drop it.

It is up there with Brian and the polar bears 😂

Friday still looks potentially wintry IMBY- I'd prefer a proper snowfall but a few hours of snow falling would be agreeable, even if it's a rain/snow mix and there's always a chance it'll be heavy/prolonged enough for a slushy cover. 

*If* it does warm up around the 12th it'll feel entertainingly tropical after the prolonged chillier stuff. Other than 1 day between Xmas and the New Year I think my max temp has been around 5c, with most days a bit below that. 

I seem to recall there was a time last week when, after they dropped the idea of a strong Greenland High that had been suggested at one stage shortly before New Year, the models suggested the atlantic making a more meaningful push back in during the second half of this week. IIRC at that time, there was little if any suggestion of pressure rising over Scandinavia, at least to any notable extent.

The one common theme of much of the output over the past couple of weeks is that there has been little if any consistency, both on a run-to-run and on a cross model basis when it comes to what happens beyond a few days ahead. FI seems to start quite early right now.

Gets blown away and does all of the GEFS and most now of ECM ens.  Its game over for Winter 25/26

Roll on Spring warmth. 

Haven't checked the runs/ECM/GFS etc since yesterdays epic 12 z - what have i missed?! Usual flip then I see!?

I see the snow row has been down graded in the ENS - looking at Birmingham for Friday 00z in the 06z shows a average of 11.1cm's in the 06z this morning:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50902&model=gfs&var=26&run=00&lid=ENS&bw=1 

06z shows and average of 8.1cms for Friday 00z:

[/url]https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50902&model=gfs&var=26&run=06&lid=ENS&bw=1 

12z shows average of 5.8cm's

 https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50902&model=gfs&var=26&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

NOW the latest 18z shows an average of 4.7cm - so quite a downgrade here, with the snow spikes shrinking each run:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50902&model=gfs&var=26&run=18&lid=ENS&bw=1 

[url=https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50902&model=gfs&var=26&run=18&lid=ENS&bw=1]https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50902&model=gfs&var=26&run=18&lid=ENS&bw=1 

I bet the next run the average will be zilch! :(

Yes - pretty much model alignment around an Atlantic period - but not especially mild. Hints towards the end of the GFS of the cold air remaining close by to the east, and the Atlantic low sinking and HP forming to the north. Maybe hope-casting, but it would not take much to advect tha cold air back our way. Is there any updates on the potential for a SSW event?

No SSW imminent and not much hope for Coldies I'm afraid.  Things will change again at some point but next couple of weeks that promised much look poor.

TBF the "AI" pattern-matchers have been just as prone to flipping as the traditional suites - they're no better in that regard. The easterly was only ever a minority option (9% quoted in the MetO "deep dive" 2 days ago) and, of course, minority options don't happen more often than not. It's no surprise to see the current outlook, as the Atlantic crashing against a block far to the east is a common enough scenario even in these modern times - it's the tantalising hint of something more that brings the interest and, I'd wager, it's why the majority of us are here: chasing the unusual, be it snow, heatwaves, storms or whatever. 

We've eked out one extra day of the cold spell it seems - the EPS had a median of 9 for Sunday here a few days ago and it's now looking around 4 - but after that it's a return to normal or even mild, with double figures shown in the MetO and GFS, while ECM has a string of 9s - a smidge above average for the time of year. It won't be long before we're back to our grey, windy, rainy typical weather across the UK!

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind&ved=2ahUKEwiApPz6s_uRAxXzZ0EAHWYRLswQFnoECCEQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0dZBbfCFNWSCwK1FfFg8jX 

  AIFS did produce the odd crazy run but apart from that it's been the most consistent imo. It's not perfect but it is statistically the best. It rarely goes off on one which the legacy tend to do. 

Time for a model rest next week, I'm glad some got snow and of course there could be snow tonight and tomorrow for central areas but a poor cold spell up here for the central belt

Yup, it's the best on a hemispheric level. It's just as crud at modelling these awkward setups in our part of the world as the other suites, and that should be no surprise: it's got far more data of our usual SW'ly setup than it does of these blocks in unusual places. In theory it should gradually improve over the years providing we get more of these setups!

The ops are prone to go "off one one", but the ensembles - much less so. 

FAX - Goretti 968mb London Fri 9th, 991mb Holland Sat 10th, filling Poland Sun 11th while shallow LP hangs around near N Scotland and HP 1025mb extends over all Norway. The HP just about hangs on, even stretching into N Europe, while a large area of LP dominates the Atlantic. Individual depressions circulate within the latter, e.g. running up the west coast Sun 11th, with winds from the W/SW to Mon 12th.

GFS Op - the Atlantic area of LP gradually flattens out while the HP, having retreated eastwards, builds back from Russia so after a week with milder S-lies, by Wed 21st the HP has generated a centre over Britain 1035mb and LP is away near Iceland. It doesn't last - by Sat 24th the HP has gone back to Europe and LP is off the west of Ireland, so back to S-lies.

ECM - distinctly different from GFS in that the HP does not build back from Russia to any extent so by Wed 21st LP has pushed in from the NW and by Fri 21st a centre 955mb Iceland circulates cold W/NW-lies for Britain as a whole.

AIFS - London Becoming suddenly milder Mon 12th (maxima to 10C) before drifting down again slowly. Heavy rain Fri 9th, small amounts at other times, winds persistently in the S after this weekend. Edinburgh, temp profile similar but with colder dips on Sun 18th and Thu 22nd, rain on Sun 11th, some at other times, again S-ly winds after the weekend.

GEFS - dip at the weekend after passage of storm Goretti, then mean close to norm to Sat 24th with good ens support, Rain in most places at most times, heaviest in the S & W, little chance of snow after this weekend.

I'm away this weekend, reviews will depend on weather and connectivity

I think we say this every year these days when it gets to mid-January!😣

I do agree. While there looks to be fairly strong agreement across models for the Atlantic to dominate the UK's weather next week, it's too far out to say how far the fronts ingress into Scandi and the continent. There seems a decent chance that the frigid cold to our NE will never be too far away from our shores in the coming weeks. As long as that happens the potential will always be there for it to make a return.