😉🤣

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm-eur/runs/2026010612/nmm-26-65-0.png?06-17 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf_ctrl.php?&ech=141&mode=0 

It’s an interesting run that’s for sure and shows that weather from the west is not a foregone conclusion. More runs needed?

Yes a bit of an easterly influence.  Lol

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf_ctrl.php?&ech=234&mode=0 

That whole run is fantastic. Probably at the extreme end of the pack, but I guess we'll find out once the ens appear. 

Blimey, it goes on all the way to 360 - a proper midwinter easterly. The ECM op (but not the ensembles) has been pretty keen on a Scandinavian High of some sort for a couple of days' worth of runs now... the difference being the initial stages of it are sown as soon as Sunday now. 

The "snow on the ground" chart is remarkable...

An effortless 15cm here, thanks to the easterly, and just look at those pinks! And unlike the previous modelling, that really is a "snow on the ground" chart. Compare to the "total snow fall" chart pasted afterwards...

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/74/8346/ecmwfuk_34_360qon9.png 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/45/16776/ecmwfuk_33_360zzg4.png 

It's nuts it just keeps going and going. Hopefully a trendsetter. 

I did wonder if the tide was turning... the Met might have to reconsider their "by the middle of January the transition to Atlantic weather should be complete" idea.

Just what I suggested would happen yesterday. Just need to see it firm up now in further runs.

The difference to the other models is quite early from 72/96 and then it leads to snowy narnia. Hopefully it's pulling a blinder.

Can you see what the trigger is compared to GFS for example as to how the easterly comes about. Do we need to focus on anything particular over coming days?

I agree with this. We have been burnt so many times. I was shocked at how quickly the pattern shifted on the 12z. One would expect that if this is going to grow in concensus that we have to start seeing some reaction in the GEFS as soon as tbe 18z runs.

To be fair though there have been hints of this for a while. Its a pretty common theme of lows struggling to come up against an incipient block over scandi after a long cold spell. Sometimes they succeed, sometimes fail but either way the models tend to underestimate the possibility in the medium range for a while. 

Solid agreement on GEFS for temps at the surface down here to recover to average by day, above by night around 12th Jan. 850s are also strongly suggesting average weather.

UKMO op is mild by T168 IMBY (not so for Scotland). 

GEM IMBY looks fairly average longer term, air from an Atlantic source/direction. 

ECM op obviously differs but usual rule of thumb should apply - if one of the ops is very different to the rest it's likely to be wrong. 

Unless we start to see ens support (ECM suite has robustly said no to a cold easterly lately), cross model support and inter run consistency I'm classing this as a temporary modelling blip. 

I'd be delighted to be proved wrong but based on the available output I don't think I will be!

That ECM run is like a throwback to the 80s with a classic mild v cold battle, with undercutting lows from the Atlantic. Looks a bit isolated compared to the other 12z output though. Clearly lots of uncertainty from the weekend.

The ECM is ridiculous to make it unbelievable but in todays climate world, most things are ridiculous 

There's no cross model agreement on the Scandi option

The 18z GFS , if it is to be possible should display some evidence,  the 12z did nothing 

About as much chance of coming off as I have of winning tonight's Euromillions.

Snow depth charts JFF:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1