Potential this season for cold is definitely higher than usual. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gem&var=25&run=12&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

Even the ridge to our west at T+42 has some random lows embedded in it! Those "1025"s are lows, not a high...

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/7/27735/gfs_0_42vyp8.png 

Indeed UKMO turns into a peach of a run.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukmhd&var=1&run=12&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

Taking the T168 snapshot (UKMO viewable extent) I'd say slack, chilly or cold and messy is a strong possibility looking at GFS, ICON and UKMO. That takes us to 8th Jan which would represent a delay to cold air leaving the UK. 

The UKMO is probably the best of the runs so far IMO, although how the HP over Scandi interacts to the HP cell to the SW, assuming it did, would be fairly pivotal. It doesn't scream rapid collapse to mild though. 

GFS is a bit uninspiring at T240, with HP too close to the UK diverting LPs and allowing a thick wedge of milder air to be dragged our way. May be a blip but assume will depend on the fairly active jet streak exiting Canada and exact angle that takes over the Atlantic. 

All in all though not bad so far. 

In terms of tomorrow's precip, all a smidge further west so far and less organised, suggesting I may be back to missing out although might see a few flakes even so. 

Edit: didn't mean to quote you, hit wrong button 😂 to answer the post as I've quoted it, yep GEM looking interesting too so far! Post the clean northerly interlude it's all looking like the kind of set up that can lead to unexpected if temporary snowfalls almost anywhere (according to this evening's ops anyway). 

3/1/1/1/1/1/2

Given the average high this time of year is a smidge over 8C, that's very cold indeed. 

Even the more conservative MetO raw has 3/2/2/2/4/4, and both models have penetrating frosts by night. 

I think this is going to end up as one of those wonderfully wintry spells with white frost building up day by day, with water freezing and staying frozen until the spell finally breaks, whenever that might be. I suspect also people will be tempted to try and walk across frozen ponds etc, which might cause problems!

Yes, there are fewer flights on NYD compared to the surrounding days, but the effect is nowhere near as marked (we lose 75% of flight data on Christmas Day, or rather the 2600 run due to it still being Christmas in the States). The NYD data loss is closer to 30%, but this year figures aren't available as the ECM website is playing up. 

You could usually spot the "Christmas effect" on the models, but the NYD one was always much more subtle and in recent years it's not been apparent at all really.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?ext=1&x=&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&ville=Londres 

30 of 31 members hit -10, and the remaining one gets to -9.9. It's been a long while since we've seen that at anything beyond T+24 or so!

The next chart at 252 would be carnage in some parts! Obviously won’t be exactly like that but the models seem to have caught on to a change for the colder. 

Happy New Year to you Michael, and to all other members of TWO. 👍

I think "twists and turns" is a phrase that very succinctly sums up much of the model output we have witnessed since the start of the festive season, as it has seemed to me that no two day's output has been the same. It has sure been a far cry from the endlessly zonal output we saw daily during the first fortnight of December.

The closest I can recall is ~January 1977.

Welcome surprise for 01st Jan.

GEM keeps the cold pattern cleaner than the latest GFS and avoids an outright Atlantic push. Still lacking a defined southern feature to satisfy snow starved Londoners south of M4, but this is a more supportive backdrop for wintry potential than some of the recent GFS output. Not an upgrade to a snow event yet, but certainly not a write-off either.

You are getting the brunt it seems. Forecast maxima for here for the next week is for between 3 & 7c, with perhaps the chance something marginally below zero by night (if the cloud sufficently breaks... which it likely won't) which is far from remarkable for the time of year. This spell won't be a patch on the real frozen spell of December 2022. 

It looks fairly dry until a more assertive Atlantic push which brings a snow to rain event later on.

https://meteologix.com/uk/model-charts/euro/europe/significant-weather/20260109-1200z.html 

Here's the snow depth chart at 192 - the stuff in the SE soon thaws, but further north it hangs around for longer.

https://meteologix.com/uk/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/snow-depth/20260109-1200z.html 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=aifs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Looks like a snow event Wednesday 7th morning???

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=aifs&var=4&run=12&time=138&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

12z AIF @ 192/198z:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/AIFSOPEU12_192_1.png 

GEM12z: @ +192/198z

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPEU12_192_1.png 

GFS 12z Op run has it further north but in cold airmass which could turn rain to snow as it moves away eastwards @ +192z:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_192_1.png 

ECM 12z Has it further north but could bring a period of sleet and snow before?

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_192_1.png