18z Op shows double figure temps pushing in just to west of UK as early as Tuesday with NO snowy breakdown at all sadly:

Yes - only a day or so ago we were seeing that block of HP retrograde and intensify to our NW over Greenland and now it is slipping away/collapsing as early as Monday Night into Tuesday and without a snowy breakdown as well! It can't go this wrong surely!?

Despite the models saying possible repeaters...last January after a cold start went the same way and it was basically "it" for winter....hopefully different background drivers will be a different story this time.

ECM looks interesting today too, with lots of trough disruption going on and borderline rain/snow/sleet events in the south - the 0C 850 isotherm only makes it, briefly, across the SW at 192 before colder air returns.

I find the 0C 850 isotherm is a good proxy for mild Atlantic air in these setups - as you can get snow even at -1 or -2 850s providing the boundary layer is cold enough. 

(Charts via the Meteologix site - why they can't present their charts in the traditional WZ style, as used by MC and TWO, I'll never know!)

https://meteologix.com/uk/model-charts/euro/europe/temperature-850hpa/20260111-1200z.html 

The day 10 ECM operational chart is an interesting one. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_240_1.png  as is the GEM for the same time point: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPEU00_240_1.png 

There’s not a massive amount of inter-model consistency at that range, perhaps as expected, but the general picture seems chilly at that time point. Much is still to be clarified I think.

For before then am amazed that a third consecutive UKV run has shown in the region of 40 cm of snow here by the end of the weekend, I have not seen that modelled before and I suspect it is overdoing it. Other models show a decent amount but not that much and I guess the showery nature in such a setup as predicted is hit and miss and hard to model. I’d say somewhere is going to get a very decent covering up here though.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=34&time=0&run=0&lid=OP&h=0&tr=6&mv=0 

I am subscribed to that site, and I agree, the maps are awful. That flat look that distorts the true shape and size of more northern lands. Also don't understand why they include city names on those chart that just distorts even further. If people don't know where places are on a map, then they really shouldn't be looking at a weather chart. 

All 2D maps are a distortion of a true 3D globe. Mercator (which looks like what Wetterzentrale uses) is even worse for northern latitudes, though it's the one we're used to.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Isn't UKV higher res and better with shower activity than the globals though😜

I guess it could happen but I think last time I really paid attention to it in a Northerly it did overegg things somewhat. Still you never know I guess!

Re the models not much to add to people's comments already - I started with the ECM op and was pleasantly surprised to see it maintained last night's chilly outlook but carried it on through the whole run this time. The respective ens suites are suggesting a decent chance of cold air in the mid to longer term, either returning or never having really left. That said there's still plenty of mild scatter (marginally less for Northern parts) so I'd say a decent cold signal but with a fair bit of uncertainty and a tweak away from a collapse to mild so plenty to resolve yet (as there always is with FI).

Before then, cold incoming*, enjoy the snow if you see it (I might do on the 2nd I guess, at least in terms of a few flakes falling!). 

*A nice clear frosty start to today as it goes, first properly frosty and cold night of the month although there's been a couple of grass frosts.

GFS Op 0z - the N-lies for this week affect mainly the east coast, and there's no reinforcement at the weekend as in FAX. Slack pressure around the N Sea keeps the weather cold, but the next definite development comes on Thu 8th with HP mid Atlantic and LP 975mb Iceland directing strong NW-lies at Britain. turning into the north as the LP moves to Scandinavia but again mainly down the east coast. Then a repeat of the slack pressure until HP re-asserts itself 1035mb England Tue 13th, not on this occasion forming an effective block as weak Atlantic troughs move in on Thu 15th.

ECM - like GFS to Thu 8th (if anything the N-lies affect a bit more of Britain); then out of the area of slack LP a deep but local LP forms 975mb N France producing cold NE-lies for England Sat 10th before merging with LP over Scandinavia. After that, ECM and GFS forecasts converge.

GEM - again Thu 8th is the tipping point, where the NW-lies as per GFS slacken off and leave LP 995mb NE England Fri 9th, deepening and bringing in some rather cold air from Scandinavia across all of Britain on Sat 10th -effectively like ECM but by a different mechanism.

Plenty of interesting model watching promised a week from now. Meanwhile, what about pattern matching?

AIFS - London, briefly mild tomorrow, else maxima around 1C to Wed 7th (and frosts often -3C at night), then milder from Thu 8th, maxima around 5C but with a dip Sun 11th, rain in small amounts from Thu 8th, best chance of snow Sun 11th. Edinburgh, like London, temp profile more exaggerated, perhaps quite wet Wed 14th.

GEFS - dropping to 8C below norm but dry for the next week; a mild bump led by op and control Thu 8th (but mean only just back to norm), then mean a little below norm to Fri 16th with increasing spread of ens members, some rain from Wed 7th onwards  A little snow in the east likely in the coming week, otherwise snow row only just into double figures (i.e. 10/33) generally except much higher in the Highlands most of the time.

Yes it looks like a less cold blip between two colder spells looks like a more probable outcome based on the morning’s output. Even then the milder/less cold bit has moderated a bit this morning, There is a possibility that trend could continue and the next few sets of runs will be interesting.

Or it coukd go like yesterday and become milder after the weekend and stay that way (but the current trend is not in that direction).

I have no basis for saying this other than my own gut feeling, but I did have a feeling last night that there would still be more twists and turns in the models re what happens next week and beyond. Looks like that is what has happened overnight, to a degree.

Looks thouroughly miserable (for here at least). Cold rain bordering on sleet with a bone penetrating dank wind.