Looking at the 06z ens, I'm beginning to think maybe a trough disruption with take place somewhere across the UK, with only the smallest of warm sectors crossing parts of the country,  More especially the further south and west you are.

Edit: this then leading to a shorter average temp period as the next colder push from the north occurs.

It does look dry for many parts of the country that's all.

Prime example is 12z Saturday 3rd and 12z Sunday 4th shows precipitation only around coastal areas around the country as if it is avoiding the UK landmass. I guess Brexit means brexit haha! - is the gfs not good and picking up troughs/low pressures in northerlies?

3rd:

4th

Those charts are extremely stupid and need to scrapped as no way to be so dry under very unstable flow with LP right next to us.  Very dry applies to strong HP atop which not this case most are far west away from here.  I am expecting snowfalls at times for most places. 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/59/14612/UW144_7vut6.GIF 

...and the GFS, well, the GFS sums up our winter in a nutshell!

Here's 186, where the warmest places in the whole of Europe are a) a small bit of Greece, b) Malta, c) a bit of coastal Sicily and d) the English Midlands.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/74/7556/gfs_9_186yvb7.png 

I still think the best advice for those down here at least is to make the most of the next few days. 

The GFS 12z op run goes for something close to the middle of the three options but with things changing in the medium to longer term with each run I think I will stick to the cross model ensemble approach beyond day 5 or so rather than any hyperbolic melodramatic insinuations of winter being over.

I’ve seen a few winters where we get a rinse and repeat northerly pattern, that may be what the GFS is starting to hint at: 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_294_1.pn 

I wouldn’t like to call the weather for +150 hr never mind at that range though so it’s just a thought rather than a probability (albeit the second op run in a row to show that).

Back in early December, I can recall someone saying that in their view it was game over for cold before the end of December, and given the poor model output generally at the time one might have been tempted to agree. However, those of us who have been following the models for a while (20 years in my case) will know how fickle the models can sometimes be during certain set-ups. I believe the current situation may well be an instance of this.

Perfect timing for me as I am off work from tomorrow and return on Wed 7th which will return to less cold to average temps.  Very much mild outlier in FI so nothing to worry about as now I will able to see the cold and some snowfalls while I am off.   

UKMO at T168 isn't the worst looking breakdown chart for the Northern half of the country although angle and intensity of the next LP would obviously be important. 

Before the breakdown, assuming as looks favoured we get one, 5-7 days of cold weather with significant snowfall for parts of Scotland and maybe some decent falls for other prone spots. For the rest of us, sparkling sunshine, frosty nights and chasing developing features to see if we might see some flakes.

I tend to not really pay much attention to them but the AI models are more routinely unsettled post breakdown. I do struggle with them as a concept - no reason it'll be wrong but I can't see how if they've learned by going for the most common solution, they won't occasionally get things completely wrong. Presumably some much cleverer bods than me disagree though. 

It's definitely cold enough, nice snow event for most. A decent ECM 12z. A bit of hope to cling to

Some dry air, and cold nights maybe underplayed by models when winds fall light? Great winter weather

The T216 looks intriguing for some too:-

Some definite twists and turns so far in the (possible/probable/definite as you wish) breakdown, I'd be surprised if there's not more to come including some much less interesting versions too.

I wonder if the respective ens suites will have a decent number of colder members in the mid to longer term or if the ops are a bit isolated? This mornings set suggest the former!

Could that be seen as trough disruption? By 240hrs the cold looks to be back in.

Don't think they're disrupting but the energy does I think go ESE or SE, which helps keep us on the cooler side (well some of us anyway). 

I'd guess the HP to our SW will put a stop the fun post T240 and things will take a more traditional approach, at least for a day or so. Will find out when the HR charts come out I guess. 

All academic at that range but supports the theme. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

I suspect this is overdoing it but it looks remarkably consistently cold in this neck of the woods:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=50110&var=202&run=12&date=2025-12-30&model=ecm&member=ENS&bw=1 

I think the cold may not be as extensive or prolonged as the ECM (ensembles) or as transient as some of the other models, but either way it’s a really interesting period of model watching.

Part of me is wondering if the models are perhaps being a bit too quick in collapsing the block. I'm not saying they are as we don't know for sure yet how this will play out. However, if they are it wouldn't be the first time in the years I have followed the model output that they have underestimated the strength of a HP block. We shall see.