Yep, the blocking to our NW is a dwindling prospect but I hear the northern US has had a rapid and extensive rise in temps the past few days which could help us later on: 

Been out on the MTB lately Rob?

I’d be quite happy with the GFS op run to be honest: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_300_1.png

A thing of beauty at that stage with sub 510 dam air (500-1000hPa) reaching as far parts of N England. One run deep in FI of course, but not totally without support. The New Year period continues to look interesting.

More generally the positive height anomalies to the NW are present throughout the entire GEFS 15 day time duration. 

This the day 10 GEFS mean 500 hPa anomaly:

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-31-5-240.png

 By day 15 as you would expect it is weaker but still evident: https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-31-5-384.png 

GFS Op 0z - as FAX, then the HP receives reinforcements from the SW and by Sun 28th is 1040mb Scotland dividing N-lies over E Europe from S-lies heading for Greenland with quiet  weather for Britain between. The HP holds on for the week after Christmas (frost, fog?) before retrogressing and allowing an Arctic LP to move south with N-ly gales for Britain (esp the east) from New Year's Day to Tue 6th. The HP then moves further south and on Wed 7th it looks as if normal service W-lies are about to resume, Greenland down to 965mb and no sign of any N-ly blocking.

ECM - like GFS to New Year's Day but the HP then moves S-wards and in the first week of the New Year there are W-lies not N-lies. These continue to the ed of the run when in a neat twist a piece of the Greenland LP breaks off, moves to the N Sea and we then get N-lies, not W-lies.

AIFS - London, maxima from Christmas Eve 3-5C, milder briefly on Sun 4th, dry except maybe a spot of drizzle. Edinburgh, again dropping to 3-5C but with additional mild day Sat 27th, dry after initial rain.

GEFS -in the S temps dipping to below norm for Christmas Day, recovering, but staying near norm in the N.  However then again cold esp in S from New Year's Day onwards. Note, a very wide variation in ens members' temps for the week after Christmas but converging after that. Chance of rain from Sat 3rd. 

Snow row figures over Christmas are unexciting; chances rise into double figures ( out of max 33) down the east coast in the first week of New Year.

Frustratingly, the potential  cold for Christmas has been dramatically scaled back, and snow removed from the forecast, while the the next batch of anything really wintry is still out in FI after New Year.

The two main models have been remarkably consistent with the overall theme for the next 10 days with some fine weather at times and an extended dry period through to New Year. This will be most welcome from a dog walking / family activity / general comfort perspective.

As we're used to at this time of year its jam tomorrow with the snow but looking pretty epic on the 0z GFS New Year weekend, lets see if it sticks to its guns this time or keeps pushing it to arms length with every model iteration. 

Great as a spectator nontheless!

Just for you Phil. This is the 06z GFS op run:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPFR06_73_53.png

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=66&mode=1&aigfs=1 

The main bus routes have changed significantly around here lately. I’m blaming that. 

Bah humbug! 

I should have been more patient only 14 days to go. Snowfest! ❄️ 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=6&time=339&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

Before then - anticyclonic.

In a (very) small but intriguing minority there are 4 06z GEFS members that drop suddenly to below -10°C t850hPa on the 27th/28th here. This suggests an unlikely possibility that the high pressure could retrogress westward just after Christmas as opposed to the more gradual development of blocking to the NW. 

😁  Sings: "It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas..."

And yet....😊

That does appear to be the main idea even with the HP jiggling about a bit, and I am certainly happy with that(now that the short lived disappointment after the immaculate conception of snow passed). Outdoor weather with seasonal chill is so much better than the 11 degree cloud/drizzle that seems to bless the day often enough. Brisk easterly here and low RH might even dry a bit of washing.

Trying to guess the fine detail even a day or so out can be a mug’s game.