He has a point. Its been a poor set of 12zs.  No sugar coating. Sadly we dont often see things swing back to cold from this close out. Usually even more the other way. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=312&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

Yes you’re right APS. It is either a total misunderstanding of what that run shows or he is on the wind up. The scenario shown is at one extreme of the possibilities but not without support from other models in the general pattern (e.g. some GEFS members and the ECM 12z op run for example).

That chart is IMHO reminiscent of the set-up we had from mid-December 2009 to mid-January 2010 and again from late November to late December 2010. Not exactly a toppler in my book either, Ally.

Have you looked at the runs in their entirety? If you have, I really cannot understand how you have come to this view.

I'm winding Moomin up , it's a beauty as you say. 

The creep of colder 850s into eastern Europe is very slow, but also very sure, so if that mid-Atlantic  high eventually moves north again. it could end up being a bigger event than the nearer term projection.  

OK, I didn't see the latter stages. Looks good, but an age away in forecasting terms.

There's no dressing up the GFS, its not good at all, but I concur, the ECM looks much better.

Just 240 hours to wait 😅

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml 

I get your anxiety over the GFS. I would

like nothing more than to

see a 1987, 1979, 1962-3 or even a Beast from the East, but the rotten old GFS has often heralded Pete Tong entrance stage left, picking up signals early that others haven’t yet done so, and my posts last night and this morning expressed this anxiety over the number of pert’s that collapsed the block and HP only to let in the dull and dismal Old Atlantic - as if to rub salt into the wounds of cold weather junkies like me that GW has made old fashioned cold spells as rare as a Christmas blizzard! However, having said all that, despite having a fair few let downs over the years, I seem to remember most cold spells - e.g. The Beast etc had similar wobbles and inconsistencies  right up to the event manifesting!! I guess a little cynicism and anxiety is just self preservation for us junkies and so I get Moomin and sooth my soul with those posts of greater optimism and eye candy charts! Here’s to dreaming !! All good fun!!  

How reliable are those AIFs models? I haven't had much experience using them!? anyone?!

I'm talking about Christmas, and sadly we can now rule out a White one for everyone. Sad. 

What happens afterwards is still up for grabs but knowing our luck we get what Moomin predicted - a UK high 

The lack of posts tell the story. Another huge letdown

In other words - it's not likely to happen, but it isn't a complete write-off just yet.

As I said yesterday, plenty of to-ing and fro-ing yet to come! And at least for once there's some interest down here on Christmas Day. Even without any snow it will feel absolutely perishing, with temperatures of maybe 3 to 5, subzero dewpoints and a stiff ENE'ly or NE'ly wind. 

Close...not throwing the towel in just yet

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/run/gensprobuk-26-120.png?0 

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/enswatch4.jpg 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512200000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202602020000 

The pressure anomaly charts continue to suggest ping-ponging between Scandinavia and Greenland, with higher than normal anomalies to the north throughout. By weeks 5 and 6 the signal is weaker, and the anomalies are closer to the UK. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-mslp?base_time=202512200000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202602020000 

Slight exaggeration here. Maybe if you’ve spent your entire life in a Namibian Tribe, but 5 degrees is milder than a few nighttime temps we’ve had lately. 

Seriously though, the overall anticyclonic theme evident for days in the output continues. There is still a bit of easterly influence as there has always been but a lower chance of snow falling than was shown a few runs back.

As easterly gloom does not interest me my attention is still drawn to beyond the Christmas period where there is still a reasonable possibility (not yet high probability) of something more wintry from the-north. This continues to be shown in some ensemble members and indeed operational runs at times.. 

On a positive note, the weather over the festive period will be welcomed by many driving home for Christmas.

After that it’s back to spaghetti but the milder options are growing run by run. Sad to say but it looks increasingly like this block isn’t going to deliver anything unless it can pull a Hail Mary retrogression out of the bag!

Although without a smidge of cold air to tap into big changes are needed:

https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=264&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref