The GFS 00z op run FI section this morning is very impressive?

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_318_1.png 

That chart shows a 55-60% chance of snow here, which I'll gladly take. It reminds me of our local ITV/TVS forecaster, Ron Lobeck, back in the 80s. He was asked about whether it would be a white Christmas one year and his reply made me think "hmmm" even though I was only 7... he said it's always a 50% chance, as it either snows or it doesn't! 😁I'll say no more on that one.

There are indeed plenty of options for the cold spell to continue beyond Christmas Day. It does look like the initial hit will be a bit of a cold puff rather than anything prolonged [in terms of deep cold, it'll remain on the cold side of average for a while], but the synoptic outlook remains very blocked and I would expect further cold shots should the blocking hold - it's a case of when, rather than if, given the diffluent block that's setting up. 

There is always the risk of the high scooting off west or collapsing, but at the moment it's very much a minority option. The op GFS is, as you say, excellent, and delivers multiple snow chances for different parts of the UK. I doubt there'd be many complaints amongst cold fans if it came off!

Nice to see the uppers Chart Darren.

This morning no less than 3 of the big models show snow falling across the South (below M4 corridor) of the UK on Christmas day with good old GEM very much pick of the bunch.

Granted it's light and it's marginal - but it's snow! On Christmas day!

Years of battle scars and disappointments help keep the lid on for most of us, but I concede the cross-model consensus for the 25th is at this range quite impressive. I won’t be saying a word on my group until maybe later tomorrow if the risk remains but it’s looking as good a chance as we’ve seen for maybe 45yrs.

Possibly need to go to the end of the pier on the channel coast with some binoculars to see a flake on the big day judged on this

Because the models are not quite showing what is being suggested by some here. Yes it looks colder, but definitely no signs of anything particularly exciting.

You seem to be suggesting that some people potentially seeing a few flakes of snow falling on Christmas Day is not exciting? I suspect many would disagree. There is that chance (albeit not here), and to look out the window on Christmas Day to see snow falling would be very nice. I don’t think anyone is saying that widespread and/or heavy snow or very wintry conditions are probable in the coming week.

I would say the models are showing exactly what some people are suggesting here, because those people have actually included charts which back up what they are saying. 

The chance of some snow Christmas day is exciting. But what's more exciting is the growing chance of a Greenland HP afterwards.  That would bring some serious cold. The ECM also has one this morning.  Just the fact we have some decent charts is enough for me tbh. And it's Christmas. Come on Moomin get in the festive spirit. 😄🎅❄️☃️🌲

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

I'd put my house on there being no snow. Even BBC weather (Sarah Keith Lucas) has said pretty much no chance.

Yes it will be cold and seasonal for a change, and I agree it could be more interesting after Christmas, but that's way out in FI and definitely not certain by any stretch.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=6&run=18&lid=PANEL&h=0&tr=6&mv=0 

It was this that spooked me - not sure how I make the link go live....

Any clues?

Your link is live but I am not sure which chart you are referring to?

A look at the 00Z ensembles shows a bit of a trend for a milder “hump” around the 28th and things are generally much messier than the cracking 6Z set yesterday. 

The milder interlude may in some cases be down to the high pressure repositioning itself prior to a retrogression to Greenland, as shown in the op run - in which case it would be worth the wait!

That link shows the 18z GEFS set, and the op run shows cold anticyclonic conditions deep into FI on that run too.

That would be a very risky bet. The first run of the 06z models emphasises the risk in the SE once again. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ICOOPEU06_114_1.png

GFS Op 0z - similar evolution but by Christmas day the HP is 1040mb northern N Sea and although a modest cold pool is then moving along the Channel. the E-lies are turning into the SE with less prospect of really cold weather. The HP centre then moves to NW Scotland, 1045 mb at times, with a further shift of winds into the North, nothing dramatic at first but for New Year's Day, Arctic gales developing. On Sun 4th, the cold air thus brought S-wards lies over England and a major depression 975mb is approaching the S Coast from Biscay (Well into FI, of course, but the best prospect for a New Year's blizzard in England since 1987 IMO - but don't get too excited yet).

ECM - evolution to Christmas much as GFS but then the HP cell retrogresses more than GFS,  to mid-Atlantic by Mon 29th, far enough for N-lies down the east coast at an earlier stage. However, it then brings the HP back to Britain, cutting off any N-lies, 1035 mb New Year's Eve, and then up to Iceland for Sun 4th. At this stage the pressure distribution is much as for GFS but the cold air hasn't penetrated S-wards  and cold rain is more likely for England. 

AIFS - London and Edinburgh similar to each other, maxima drop to 3-5C from Tue 23rd (briefly milder Sat 27th), rain Mon 22nd, dry thereafter.  

GEFS - Postage stamps unexciting for Christmas Day and beyond, with nearly all showing HP around Britain and across the N Sea to Norway. Line graphs - mean temp dropping below norm Tue 23rd and staying 2-3 C below in the S but close to  norm in the N into the New Year. However, there is with a lot of ens variation, more than in previous forecasts e.g. on the south coast Tue 29th , op at 6C and control at -10C. A splash of rain this Sunday, then mainly dry. Snow row figures about 50% for S England Christmas Day and/or Boxing Day, otherwise less than shown yesterday, in low single figures/33.

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/snow-risk  has interesting predictions of snowfall for the south on Christmas Day,  and around 3rd/5th Jan, Scotland at New Year, and for the east coast quite frequently in this period.

1070mb over Greenland come new year- yes please.

I’m in the Swiss Alps this Christmas where it’s bone dry. Sod’s Law the UK sees a white Christmas! It’s now set in stone. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/weather/will-it-snow/london 

I think the last white Christmas in London was in 1999. One of the all time classics:

ECM ens set is amusing this morning IMO - better agreement on colder air than preceding days efforts (not universal of course) but at least initially a pretty meh op in terms of colder uppers, even if still chilly to cold at the surface at times. Worth noting there's much better agreement in the ens for a brief hit of colder uppers 24th or 25th, so the op is a bit isolated in the suite FWIW. 

In terms of the main models and focusing on Xmas day with an unashamedly IMBY bias we get the below. ECM op (see above) continues to be crucially a bit further south with everything, so no colder pool hitting the UK for the Xmas period but still widely cold, the other 3 contrive to time things perfectly to bring that little cold pool over MBY and generate some precip at the same time. The cynic in me says it's unlikely to work out as well but it's modelled so you never know!

Snow on UKMO, with midday temps around 0c for me. 

GFS, snow, maxes around 3c 

GEM, snow, midday temps around 0c

ECM, dry, midday temps around 3c

That are streamers flowing in for the Midlands from the Wash, we done well with 8cm of snow cover from the Wash and Cheshire Gap showers back in 2021.  Any reason why London look so dry on the chart? thought they will get Thames streamers as the flow is ENE, remember UK map on chart look straight sitting but in real world UK is tilted toward WSW direction so the flow is ENE not NE which will be too cloudy and dry here.

Yes - but P1 and 2 etc paint a different story - more on GEM, but I have never rated it as much as the “big 2” but thanks for your experience and wisdom on the matter - relax and Keep Calm and Carry On etc - Drink!

The midnight chart shows a few showers for the far south east. I'm still fuzzy on the relationship between UKV and the MetO runs but FWIW the snow on the UKMO sets in around 6ish, so might be a case of the more organised precip taking a bit of time to get going or different model parameters overplaying things (UKMO) versus the higher res UKV. 

All JFF of course as forecasting precip at that range is fairly pointless, particularly when it's convective rather than frontal. 

The main theme is a chilly/cold one for Xmas day and that brings  chances of a few flurries for some areas, the detail won't be firmed up just yet, whether it's to dry and not cold enough (upper wise) for snow or something a bit more interesting. 

always the risk it will end up further south or nothing at all as ECM suggests.  So I am not allowing myself to get excited. Of course parts of media and Nathan Rao at GBeebies clearly reads netweather and they are going beserk about it