I assume you posted after a few Sherries! "its the hope that kills you" someone once said!

However, pert 19 on the pub run is the miracle we all want.  Its not gonna happen, but at least its being modelled so we cant rule out a white xmas just yet,

You may not have been here when Steve was a regular.  the only easterlies we seem to get in the modern era are from mid latitude blocks with the jet going over the top. Often getting squashed into a sausage shape. But at least better than the Merkelslug/Bartlett

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512140000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202601050000 

The pressure anomaly charts continue to suggest high pressure over or close to the UK for a couple of weeks. As we've seen in the GEFS, for example, there's a small window for the high to be north enough to introduce an easterly feed in the south, but it's certainly not something I'd put money on happening!

I'm continuing to look forward to a change of pattern, although to be fair we've already had a few dry days in a row down here.

GFS Op 0z; as Fax; then the next LP 960mb S of Iceland runs S-wards over Ireland and down to Spain by Tue 23rd. Pressure rises behind it, first ridging from the SW to Norway but by Sat 27th intensifying over Scotland 1050mb with (not very cold ) E-lies for England. This slips Se-wards to 1030mb Switzerland Wed 30th but pressure remains slack to the N of Scotland, no new LP appearing.

ECM agrees though the pressure rise builds in from Norway, 'reverse ridging' to the SW by Christmas Day. HP then just about hangs on, 1030 mb Norway Wed 30th with some slightly colder air drifting in from the east.

AIFS London maxima dropping for about 10C now to about 5C over Christmas with a couple of frosty nights at that time. Some rain in the coming week, mainly Thu 18th, dry for Christmas. Edinburgh, cool (5C) now, milder for the coming week but cooler again by the weekend, then very mild (10C) for the Christmas period. Rain frequent w/b Wed 17th, dry for Christmas.

GEFS Postage stamps at T+180 (Mon 22nd) are not exciting - cold LP near Greenland and HP ridging across Britain from the SW. Line graphs much the same for all of Britain - temps drop to norm around Christmas Day, Mean then stays near norm but a very wide spread of ens members +/- 10C from mean, op and control in different directions; rain on 18th/19th (plus currently in W) otherwise mostly dry, Snow row quite widely in single figures after Christmas but no support for the major snowfalls shown in some of last night's outputs.

Yes nice ECM this morning. -8/-9c 850s by the end would just about be cold enough for some snow ❄️ 

No sherries, unusually.

But given the weeks and weeks of output with nothing in, ive got nothing but hope left.

Looking this morning, it feels like the charts have edged forwards towards colder, than cooler.  Very close to a BFTE scenario in some cases.

One thing just to note re uppers and talk of snow is just how warm the north sea is at the moment:-

SST Anomalies 

IMO that's going to take a prolonged colder feed or colder uppers than currently shown to overcome surface warming of the air. In some ways if it's cold you're after a UK high is a better bet as that'll stagnate, whereas an easterly feed at the moment will mix things up too much and from the sort of setups being toyed with would probably be fair chilly and dank for at least a chunk of the time, certainly for the eastern half of the country. (The GFS Op did nearly bring a deep cold pool our way I guess that would have been quite fun - deep cold over warmer than usual seas could have been a snowy jackpot!). 

Not really - remember the North Sea has an average depth of just 300 feet, it's nowhere near such a massive heat store as the nearby Atlantic, for example.

Or, in other words, get an 80s-style easterly and it'll cool down darned quickly!

(-10 would be my starting point at 850, as usual, but -12 would be more like what we had in the 80s)

Dosen't the Atlantic feed into the North Sea? I think any cool down of the North Sea would be at best temporary as long as there is a hyper warm north Atlantic ocean in play. 

The charts aren't showing an 80s style easterly though, more a waft with (GFS op) a brief window of -10s for a small part of the country.  So I think the point still stands? Absent a more impressive cold feed or a week or so bouncing around -5 to -8 c uppers, the warmer seas will keep temps a bit higher than might otherwise be expected (and potentially have more moisture, so more cloud etc which would also keep night time temps up). The ECM charts suggest that effect in the eastern part of the country, with the west generally a degree or two colder and amusingly closer to experiencing 'cold' weather than us as you head deeper in to the run.

I'm mostly just prepping for the inevitable warm easterly type comments if we do get an easterly feed, which IMO ignores the fact the majority of the output just isn't cold enough for anything wintry. 

It's why I prefer a ~NW'ly with a coldish and unstable feed - we can get snow from -5 850's.

This, from Xmas Day 2004, gave us around 3" of lying snow (that froze by 6pm as skies cleared). 850's were around -5c/-6c.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2004/noaa/NOAA_1_2004122512_2.png 

Barring rare occasions, you're essentially relying on 'lake effect' snow on most easterlies

ECM by contrast had it diving south, leading to this a few hours later:-

The energy heading NE doesn't stop HP becoming more dominant but does seem to keep it further south leading to less chance of importing cold air. It also presumably leads to an absence of HP over Scandinavia, with GFS 6z and ECM 00z ops below for contrast:-

Entirely possible I'm focussing on something largely irrelevant but will have a look through the ens later and the 12zs and see if the LP not diving south is correlated with lower pressure over Scandi and a more southerly based HP for us.

Exactly I think people expect Jan 87 some of the time. A dry cold Xmas day would be perfect.

Becoming HP dominated, where that centres is anybody’s guess but give potential looking further ahead 

All academic given it's deep FI etc. but the 6z demonstrates your point nicely:-

Useless for me of course, hence the obsession with something with 'east' in the wind direction!

Cold zonality two words that don’t marry up in the South East!

Until there’s decent inter- and cross-model support for this evolution I have low confidence in the idea of a seasonal and increasingly cold Xmas week. Having said that, some decent options are in the table so my left eye is half on it so to speak.

I dont feel we have seen a full swing into cold yet potential charts yet, and i think the charts are primed to do so.

But will be discussed and ramped as the next BFTE