Indeed. The GEFS London 00z 2m temp plot shows from 19th Dec very little diurnal variation, with the temp slowly dropping over the following week. I think this suggests a cloudy high and anticyclonic gloom for Christmas Day. Any takers? No, I thought not - me neither.

Long way to go but the first signs of a consistent theme now developing. 

Some better news at long last, Neil. 👍

Yes I'm not too sure why the GFS operational run keeps churning out mild or very mild runs when the majority of ensemble members are going for average or slightly cooler than average, surely the operational run has to finally produce something better soon.

Yes I notice that - Both 00z and 06z shows the operational runs milder compared to other ENS - not an outlier but one of or perhaps the mildest of runs. - Hopefully not a trend setter for what is to come. 😞 Await 12z.

00z

06z

The ECM 00z shows a cold Xmas with +3 - 5c widely. BUT DRY!

Post snowy winters of the 80s when modern era started there were quite a few instances of high pressures kept south due to surplus energy on the northern arm.In these set ups the South East did best with low temps but the inevitable always occurred.

Looking not unlike the set up that the GFSAI showed (posted by Brian) a few days back. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=25&run=12&time=384&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/snow-risk 

The GFS run looks nice but again for most of the run is varying degrees of cloud and I imagine drizzle for the east side of the country. 

All in all I'll stick with viewing the pattern as nice for a break from the wind/rain but not cold enough for anything interesting in most of the output but with potential for something more interesting to develop if the pattern persists (as the GFS demonstrates). 

The latest suite of GEFS is far less inspiring by quite some margin, with the majority showing a mid latitude block at best. A long way to go, but nothing to raise even an eyebrow to me yet!

Looks like the dreaded SCEURO high.   Cloudy muck, no frost, no sun.  just boredom

At least the Murr sausage can produce a short lived blast of snizzle.  

Yeah, the axis of high pressure is far from ideal, as it 'invites' low pressure to track over the top of it and collapse the block into the continent.

We ideally want to see a NW-SE axis of the high, and strong enough to divert lows on a southerly track underneath it (or, if the high is situated ideally, the nirvana of fronts disrupting over us)

Yes a disappointing set. Still no sign of anything really interesting in the output or the sort of pattern that could lead to something interesting in January. Also it could still end up very mild for the Christmas period as shown in the latest GEFS.

The.. the 'Murr sausage'??

Since until just a few days ago you and others were predicting this current unsettled pattern was locked in for the foreseeable future I would have thought you might have become a little more circumspect after being proved so emphatically wrong so quickly?

Are you looking at the right charts? The latest GEFS set at time of writing (12z output) does not show “very mild for the Christmas period” as you claim. If you had included the link to the set (this is for London) then others could judge for themselves.

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=12&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

For clarity it also doesn’t suggest anything overly wintry just more settled conditions and a bit more seasonal.

Seeing this on the op run for Xmas day is great might not be cold enough yet but could definitely lead to more interest for NY. Pleased it is settled for Xmas at the moment

At this stage with what's beginning to show, all bets are off for Xmas and snow.

I think the interest has been building for a while, as it is a full week since the GFS started to hint at a major pattern change. At first it was just 10-20% of pert’s that showed a blocked patter emerging, but now it is the vast majority, and some real corkers amongst them. There are 7-8 that end with decent cold temperatures and snow potential, which is 25%, but 85% are cold/ frosty. The change is 7-9 days out still, so any details are going to be taken with salt, but the potential is keeping me checking on every run with Not only interest but active anticipation. I am still dreaming of a white Christmas!